One of the surest signs that we’ve entered the NBA’s annual dog days: The Ringer’s Zach Lowe has gone on vacation. The only major piece of unfinished business on the league’s to-do list is a ruling on the Los Angeles Clippers and Kawhi Leonard allegedly conspiring to circumvent the salary cap.
I guess Jalen Duren being currently without contract is something of a big deal too, but it’s fairly foregone that he’ll re-sign with the Detroit Pistons. They’re just haggling at this point.
The Washington Wizards
have a few bits of potential business — guys who could return but probably won’t, and three players who are eligible for contract extensions (or soon will be). The extension eligible: Anthony Davis, Bilal Coulibaly, and Cam Whitmore.
Whitmore is the easiest. The team won’t offer an extension, and he wouldn’t accept an extension at any number they’d conceivably offer. It’s more likely the team would decline the fourth year option on Whimore than give him a new deal.
Beginning Aug. 6, Davis could sign a four-year extension worth $275 million. It would pay him $76 million in his age 37 season.
He could also choose to decline his player option for the 2027-28 season and become an unrestricted free agent.
Media reports indicate the Wizards and Davis will begin talks on an extension in the weeks ahead.
My message to the Wizards would be to exercise caution. Davis has been an elite defensive player when healthy. But health has been an issue, and he’s at an age where declines are the norm. Plus, he seems to have lost the ability to shoot since a hot streak in the bubble, which corresponded to the championship run he had with LeBron James and the Lakers.
To my mind, the Wizards dealt for Davis and Trae Young last season to serve as veteran bridges to the next era. The acquisition cost for each was low, and each had expensive contracts that ended soon. Then the front office went and gave Young a maximum extension, so I’m less sure that I understand the front office’s thinking.
I think it would be lunacy to give Davis the ginormous extension. But I thought the same about Young, and he’s the proud owner of a ginormous extension.
My best guess: Davis will decline to sign an extension and preserve his opportunity to become a free agent next summer. Several teams are expected to have substantial cap space in 2027, and Davis could benefit from someone willing to overpay the out years of a new deal in hopes of getting a couple years of championship contending before the aging curve really gets sharp.
A Coulibaly extension could be interesting. My salary formula pegs his value last season at around the midlevel exception (just over $15 million). Here’s the extension math (assuming a starting point of $15 million with annual raises of 8%):
- 2 years, $31.2 million | average annual value: $15.6 million
- 3 years, $48.6 million | AAV: $16.2 million
- 4 years, $67.2 million | AAV: $16.8 million
- 5 years, $87.0 million | AAV: $17.4 million
Now, I was in favor of the team picking Coulibaly in the first place. I see improvement in the numbers and in watching the games, and I still think he could be a very good player. But I also note that he hasn’t progressed as quickly or as much as I would have hoped. And the persistent deficits — shooting, extended stretches of offensive passivity — are a concern.
More specifically, Coulibaly’s defensive impact (or at least what I think it could be in a competitive environment) and athletic tools are genuine assets in the regular season. Those deficits could make him borderline unplayable in the postseason. The league has figured out how to deal with wings who aren’t threats to shoot. Specifically, sag off to crowd the paint and have a ready help defender and dare the non-shooter to take any three he wants.
Can any team be competitive paying MLE money to someone who can’t play extended postseason minutes? I’m dubious.
That said, he just turned 22, which indicates he has some runway. He was more active and aggressive offensively last season, though I have to note that his usage was higher later in the season when a) more established teammates were on the sidelines, and b) the team was trying to lose. Was the aggressiveness real?
He also shot the three better later in the season — 40 makes in his last 109 attempts of the season, which works out to 36.7%. That’s about league average. Better, but a) still not good (unless it’s at a high enough volume that opponents have to defend him at the three-point line, b) defenses weren’t exactly taking the Wizards very seriously in February, March, and April, and c) 109 attempts isn’t enough to say one way or the other if his shooting actually improved. It’s encouraging that he shot better, but this is another “it it real” category?
During the “aggressive” phase of Coulibaly’s 2025-26 season, opposing defenders seemed to have a lot of trouble staying in front of him. His length, burst, and just good enough ball handling seemed to get him into the paint almost any time he wanted. The finishing was an adventure, but this development suggests the possibility of an effective second-side attacker. Was it real, though?
The “is it real” question is one of the problems with tanking. Another is bad habits and not learning what kind of effort it takes to truly compete in the NBA. I’m less concerned with the latter because winning habits are something everyone needs to learn.
The need to question nearly everything about a player after three seasons is a bigger issue because the team needs to make significant decisions. In Coulibaly’s case, an extension decision must be made by Oct. 31 — before the season starts. At least they’ll have training camp to evaluate.
The team has a wager to make. They can skip an extension and wait until next summer when they’ll have a season of (hopefully) competitive basketball to evaluate.
They could offer Coulibaly what he’s shown he’s probably worth to this point. Would he be willing to take the long-term financial security of a three-year, $48.6 million deal that would make him a free agent at age 26? Maybe. What if the Wizards make that third year a mutual option and give him a shot at a more lucrative deal a year earlier?
I’d be reticent to go longer than three years for either side. Many of these midlevel deals become bad contracts pretty quick. The Wizards don’t need to be saddled with a cap-clogging deal going into the distant future.
If Coulibaly believes he can shoot better and maintain his level of aggressiveness with better teammates and in a more competitive environment, he’d be foolish to lock himself up until he’s 27 or 28 years old.
My best guess: The Wizards and Coulibaly engage in friendly extension discussions and agree to pick up talks in 2027. So much is still unknown — on both sides — that it would be smarter to wait and see.
