Last season, the Phillies had a plan for their starting rotation. They would start with Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez and Jesus Luzardo all part of the group to begin the year
as the core five, but their superprospect would join them in due time. Andrew Painter was recovered from Tommy John surgery and simply needed to show that his pitching sea legs were little less than wobbly before they would bring him to the majors, adjusting that rotation in order to accommodate his talent. The team said as much multiple times before the season began.
The Phillies have used the term “July-ish” as the target for top prospect Andrew Painter’s MLB debut and integration into the rotation but it is unlikely to come before the second half begins on July 18.
The All-Star break is from July 14-17 this year and that will be the period when the Phillies back off Painter and give him a bit more time to recuperate.
“I don’t think so,” manager Rob Thomson said Friday when asked if Painter’s arrival could come before the break.
Then the season kept going and Painter was still in the minor leagues. The aforementioned “July-ish” target date came and went and Painter still had minor league starts to make. He never would make that highly anticipated debut, eventually finishing his season pitching at the doorstep of the major leagues in Lehigh Valley. He did talk about how he had to earn the right to make it to the majors, not wanting to simply be anointed with a position based on online top ten lists.
So, with all the talk of July-ish, did Painter let his mind wander to that timeline?
“No,” he said. “I knew I had to go out there. It’s not something that’s just given. I have to go out there and earn that. I knew after two years of not pitching there was going to be some rust, there was going to be some stuff I had to fine-tune.”
It’s an admirable outlook from the young right hander. Yet with the fact that he was not able to perform well enough to make his debut in the past, the team now turns to 2026. No longer are they fortunate to have four no doubt playoff starters in their rotation as they have had in the past. Suarez is a free agent and will likely be wearing a different uniform when the season begins. Nola is coming off an injury riddled 2025 that also saw him have his worst season as a major leaguer and can’t really be completely counted on to return all the way back to where he was until he proves otherwise. Walker is still that number five starter that every team needs, but this team would probably rather see in the bullpen. Wheeler is coming off of thoracic outlet syndrome and may not be able to begin the season. That leaves the team with two solid starters in Sanchez and Luzardo and three more spots with question marks.
Painter has a chance to grab one of those spots and turn a question mark into something more concrete, but there has to still be some doubt.
Painter’s performance in 2025 could best be described as uneven. There were some flashes of his old stuff that rocketed him to top pitching prospect status returning to in-game usage, but for the most part, he was worse than people had hoped for. Most of this should focus on the fact that he did not pitch for almost two years. Rust should have been accounted for by the team when considering how they would use him in the major leagues last year, yet they seemed to assume that he would return and perform well. That’s why they kept talking about July as a possible return date. They were lucky that they had enough starting pitching on hand to make it through the season without actually needing Painter to take a spot “thanks” to the presence of someone like Taijuan Walker, as most teams would have struggled to account for that loss of impact pitcher, as well as having Mick Abel take a step forward in his own right. Yet they were somewhat lucky that they really never had to dig down to their ninth, tenth or eleventh starters.
Then there would have been trouble.
For 2026, the team looks to be making sure they have some kind of insurance for Painter not being ready just yet, but it’s mostly just minor league depth. The names that they have brought in are names that don’t inspire much confidence in case of injury or underperformance: Tucker Davidson, Jean Cabrera, Alan Rangel. These are not pitchers that one would want to have an extended shot in a major league rotation, yet this is what they have backfilled to help provide depth.
Maybe doing something a little more major is a smart route to take. Sure they have Wheeler returning at some point, maybe even earlier than even the most optimistic person would have thought. But depending on minor league backfill to help make up for any shortcomings Painter might have would be a mistake.
Now, this is a pessimistic view of what Painter might bring to the team. He very well could be a pillar of the rotation, even if he isn’t the outright ace his profile was moving towards before his surgery. There were definitely moments during the 2025 season in which one could see his becoming a very good major league pitcher. He still has most of that top prospect luster around his game. As the season wore on, he started to harness his command a bit more, even if his stuff was starting to trend downhill. While that might not seem like something to point at with positivity, there could also just be reason why things like his fastball shape could be getting worse: maybe he was just tired. A full season on the mound, followed by a full offseason of preparation, could lead to bigger results.
Yet signing another starter to enter the rotation would give the team some insurance in case Painter doesn’t pan out right away. The mantra “you can never have enough pitching” would apply here as there could be some simple machinations to make sure any and all starters fit somewhere on the pitching staff. It might be a demotion to the bullpen, it might mean a six-man rotation, but it could be done. So, signing another starting pitcher wouldn’t be the worst idea the team had had.
Does that mean they need to dip their toes in the top end of the starting pitching market? That would depend on how that market pans out. There have been few rumors of what pitchers like Suarez and Framber Valdez are actually looking for or which teams are truly that interested outside of Baltimore, but if their markets should crumble, laying in the weeds to pounce is where the Phillies should be at this moment. Should they choose to remain on the periphery of the pitching market, looking for other, less expensive arms, there would also be some options there as well.
Bringing in pitchers on a minor league deal to maintain some form of depth is probably the route the team chooses since it would represent the least amount of strain on the purse strings and that would also be fine. We’re (hopefully) only talking about the eighth, ninth and tenth options in a rotation, so pitchers on a minor league deal would suit that just fine.
Again, there is a good chance that Andrew Painter is going to be fine this season, if not good. The talent still exists and he now has a full year’s worth of innings under his belt. Knowing that command is usually the last thing to return in the recovery process should provide a modicum of assurance that he will end up almost back to where he was pre-injury. But for a team that still harbors championship aspirations with a roster that isn’t really getting much younger, making sure that there is a good insurance policy in case Painter does falter again would just be good roster construction.
