That was a really unenjoyable game in Austin for 3 quarters. The Commodores were down 17-0 after the first quarter mostly due to a 75-yard TD on the Longhorn’s first play from scrimmage and a Diego Pavia fumble on the 4th play of Vanderbilt’s first drive. Vanderbilt would cut the lead to 14 at 24-10 by halftime. The 3rd quarter ended with Vanderbilt trailing 34-10 and seemingly out of the game.
Then Diego Pavia took over while Texas’s offense stagnated under a newly aggressive Vanderbilt defense and overly
predictable and conservative play calling. Touchdowns with 10:05, 3:54, and 0:33 remaining in regulation along with a 2PT conversion after the middle TD meant the Commodores’ hopes would come down to an onside kick attempt.
Taylor hit it hard and low. Potentially thanks to a pop-up rain shower, Texas’s hands team bobbled the kick. Richie Hoskins dove into the mess to get a hand on it, but the ball squirted free. Then Langston Patterson dove over the top to corral the ball, but he had it knocked free and out of bounds by Nick Rinaldi, who was also trying to get through the mess fo bodies to keep the ball in play. It was an unfortunate play that I can assure you was bothering Rinaldi well after the final whistle.
It was an excruciating loss, both because Vanderbilt started so slowly and the final opportunity literally slipped through their fingers. Thankfully, everything is likely still in front of the Commodores. Yes, there is a nightmare scenario where 7 or 8 SEC teams end up with 2 losses or less, which leads to the Dores being left out for name recognition reasons. They just need to win and let the cards fall how they may. And part of improving is learning.
Lessons We Know Well
Diego Pavia is the one who drives this team. He finished the game 27 of 38 for 365 yards with 3 TDs through the air for his most prolific passing day in Black and Gold. He carried the ball 14 times for 43 yards and another score. His QBR was 85.0. In the first half, he was an efficient 14 of 18 for 153 yards. His 3rd quarter was a miserable 1 of 4 for 7 yards then he lit up the 4th quarter with 12 completions on 16 attempts and 205 yards. Outside of the fumble, he had a pretty good day. Frankly, he should have had the ball in his hands sooner, especially on rollouts and other stuff to the perimeter. Texas’s pass rushers off the edges were causing problems, but the rollouts neutralized them quite a bit while giving Pavia escape routes. It was his 2nd time throwing for more than 300 yards as a Commodore, and those two games were the only ones with more than 270 yards passing in his 2 seasons on West End.
The offensive line has been humbled in the last 2 games, but they are still an above average unit in the SEC. They allowed 6 sacks against the Longhorns, which almost doubled their season total. They are still tied for 43rd in sacks allowed total and 38th in sacks per game allowed. The running game never got anything going against Texas’s front though. The RBs had 10 carries for 15 yards. Woof. They need to bow up and assert their will against an Auburn front that is very good but not nearly on the same level as Missouri or Texas. It is time to put hat on a hat and road grade this squad through November.
Conversely, Vanderbilt’s run defense held the poor Texas rushing attack in check. The collective 26 carries for 101 yards was 0.01 yards above Texas’s yards per carry average for the season. Unfortunately, the Longhorns were not all that interested in running the ball until the game was out of reach.
Brock Taylor, I am sorry. I mentioned him last week without bringing up stats. He is allowed to miss every 19th kick, but it was an unfortunate timing. His 88.9 conversion percentage on FGs is still 22nd in the country.
Eli Stowers can take a game over. He had 7 catches for 146 yards in the game. The most impressive part was the 104 yards in the 4th quarter. Yes, 67 yards did come a complete coverage bust. The ball was going to him often. Stowers was targeted 7 times and made 4 catches in the final frame. The misses in that quarter were not his fault. Stowers needs to be featured like that the rest of the season. He is nearly uncoverable when they design plays to him, and it will be easy to design plays to others as they shade to Stowers. I would expect Cole Spence and Brycen Coleman to have explosive moments in these last few games.
The penalties have to stop. Vanderbilt committed 8 penalties for 70 yards. They had multiple plays where multiple penalties were called on Vanderbilt. They have got to clean it up. Full stop. Multiple drives were pushed out of field goal range or held to a field goal attempt because of them.
Lessons We Are Learning
The RBs need more space. I cannot fault them much when every run was getting swallowed at the line of scrimmage or earlier. Not much else to say about them getting eaten alive.
The defense had a horrible game, so they need to prove it was a fluke. They have been generally good, but horrible tackling and a downright cowardly scheme killed the Commodores in Austin. Only 4 of Arch Manning’s 12 1st half completions were thrown beyond the line of scrimmage. He only threw 12 or 13 of his 25 total completions behind the LOS. Vanderbilt was playing soft coverage until Texas’s final 2 drives when they went to more man coverage to face the run. That needs to continue. Vanderbilt’s corners are not so poor that they need to be playing ridiculously conservative bail out zones. Let them be aggressive, especially with what the pass rush should be able to do.
The defensive line should also have a bounce back day. They generated almost no pressure on Arch Manning. Some of that was due to how quickly the ball was getting out of Arch Manning’s hand. Unless Auburn employs a similar strategy, this defensive line SHOULD have a field day. They generated pressure early in the season, and Auburn has the worst pass protection in the league. They allow 4.11 sacks per game and have allowed 37 sacks total, which is 3 more than ANYONE else in FBS. You have a suspect QB behind a horrible OL. Bring. The. Heat. Please.
The moment is here. To this point, Vanderbilt has had mulligans to burn. No more. They used the last one in the first 3 quarters against Texas. Now, it is do or die for the playoff. They still will need some help to get in, but the “help” is all reasonably expectable results with a lot of different iterations that work out in their favor. They should comfortably beat both Auburn and Kentucky, but they cannot afford to look beyond these games. Some style points by winning handily would be useful.
Lessons for Further Study
Can the coordinators figure things out? They were both killing it early in the year but have made some missteps. Beck called too many slow-developing runs against Texas. Gregory has become too cautious with the pass rush and coverage. It is hard to complain when the team is 7-2. I just do not want to see this opportunity slip away because the coaches were too conservative. These players deserve the chance to be successful. Let them loose. Reigns off.
