During the offseason, a common theme that surrounded the Commanders was the high number of older veteran free agent signings and the age of the roster.
Unlike last season, September of 2025 saw injuries
take a heavy toll on the Washington roster, with Austin Ekeler, Deatrich Wise and Javontae Jean-Baptiste all being lost indefinitely or for the rest of the season. Safety Will Harris suffered a broken bone and CB Jonathan Jones went to IR. Several players who did not go on IR nevertheless missed multiple games, including Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Noah Brown, and John Bates.
That’s a lot to overcome, but as we enter the second week of October, the Commanders are 3-2 overall with a chance to claim first-place in the NFC East with a victory over the Bears at home on Monday night. And, while players are starting to get healthy and return to the field, the team is likely to be better for the balance of the season because of the necessity, in the opening weeks of the ‘25 season, for younger players on the roster to step up and play more than they might have otherwise.
Careers in flux
The recent theme for many of the team’s rookies and 2nd-year players has been “flux”; their careers have been changing quickly in the pressure cooker of an NFL season.
Mostly, players have seen their arrows pointing up as they have seized the opportunities to get more playing time, though some outcomes have not been completely positive.
Tight end
At tight end, Ben Sinnott stepped up in the absence of John Bates, showing of his run blocking skills (he’s only blocked on 4 passing plays this season, per PFF). Pro Football Focus gave Sinnott a season-long grade of 62.3 for his run blocking in 2024; this season, on 64 run blocking snaps, he has earned a grade of 73.7, with no grade below 63.7 since the Bates injury.
Defensive line
On the defensive line, Johnny Newton has benefited from playing alongside players like Daron Payne and Javon Kinlaw. While Newton’s percentage of defensive snaps has dropped from 51% last season to 34% this season, he is on pace to produce the same statistical performance (numbers of tackles, sacks, etc) this year as last — meaning that he is much more productive on a per-snap basis. In this week’s Stats & Snaps article, Matt referred to Newton as “the Commanders’ most productive interior defender on a down-to-down basis”. He added:
“[Newton] split time almost equally between DT and DE and recorded 2 tackles, 1 TFL and 1 pass deflection which resulted in a pick by Mike Sainristil. In the pass rush, he recorded his first sack of the season plus 3 QB hurries, resulting in an awesome 23.5% Pressure Rate.”
Cornerback
Two young defensive backs have been called on to play significant amounts in 2025. Rookie Trey Amos has played 76% of the defensive snaps this season, lining up 210 times as an outside corner. While the secondary unit as a whole has struggled, Amos has drawn almost universal praise for his play. Stats & Snaps tells us, “For readers unfamiliar with the metric, anything below 0.7 Y/Cov Snap is shutdown corner territory. Amos has been there in 4/5 games this season.”
Second year CB Mikey Sainristil, until this past Sunday, appeared to be trending the wrong way after a stellar rookie season. Per PFF, in three games against the Packers, Raiders and Falcons, Mikey gave up 16 catches on 19 targets for 162 yards (10.0 avg) and a touchdown. That turned around in a big way on Sunday, as Matt told us in Stats & Snaps:
Mike Sainristil had one of his best days on defense as a Commander. In coverage, he allowed 3 rec/5 tgt for 23 yards (0.605 Y/Cov Snp) per PFF (PFR 2/4, 20 yds, 0.526 Y/Cov Snp), with 2 pass breakups and a crucial interception goal-line interception of Johnny Newton’s deflected pass to kill the Chargers’ comeback attempt midway through the fourth quarter. In addition to that, PFR credited him with 7 tackles, 2 assists and 1 missed tackle.
Wide receiver
It’s possible that no player has seen a bigger leap in production from last season to this season than Luke McCaffery. In 17 games as a rookie, he had 168 receiving yards for 8 first-downs. In comparison, In just the first five weeks of the ‘25 season, he has amassed 146 receiving yards with 2 touchdowns and 4 first downs. As a kick returner, Luke had 299 return yards last season. So far in 2025, he has 377 return yards, and is among the NFL’s leaders in yards per return, making a significant contribution to the team’s early-season success.
Fourth-round draft pick Jaylin Lane was expected to contribute primarily as a punt returner as a rookie. Injuries to other receivers, however, have given him the opportunity to play 116 offensive snaps, both in the slot (38 snaps) and out wide (78 snaps). He has contributed 6 catches for 3 first-downs, with an average depth of target of 11.2 yards. His contested 16-yard reception against the Chargers on Sunday was probably the most impressive offensive play of his young career; however, his highlight play of the season, so far, came on special teams when he returned a punt 90 yards for a touchdown against the Raiders. Lane earned the Pepsi Zero Sugar Rookie of the Week award for that performance. Overall, Lane has returned 12 punts for 177 yards. His average of 14.8 yards per return currently ranks 2nd in the league.
Running back
The poster boy for immediate and obvious success among Washington’s young players is Bill Croskey-Merritt, who, as a running back, has been noticed by fantasy football owners, but as a shifty and explosive runner, has caught the eye of every NFL fan that has seen him play.
Bill started out with a bang, earning the Pepsi Zero Sugar Rookie of the Week award by running for 82 yards and a touchdown in his first-ever NFL game. Running as part of a committee through the first four weeks of the season kept a lid on Bill’s production, but he boiled over against the Chargers on Sunday, seemingly cementing himself as the lead back in Washington’s offense with 150 scrimmage yards and a pair of rushing touchdowns. That performance led to Bill winning his 2nd Rookie of the Week award, the FedEx Ground Player of Week 5, and, immediately after the Sunday afternoon game, Tom Brady’s “Let’s f***ing GO!” award.
Linebackers and safeties
The story for Washington’s 1st & 2nd year players has not unfolded as expected at the linebacker and safety positions. Rookie Kain Medrano has, so far, been active for only one game, and played only 9 special teams snaps.
Two players drafted in the fifth round of the 2024 draft — Jordan Magee and Dominique Hampton — both saw little to no action as rookies, though both were thought of as young players with high potential to grow into significant defensive roles with the team. Hampton’s “fluctuation” came after the first preseason game of 2025, when he was abruptly and unceremoniously cut from the team. He remains an unsigned free agent. Magee’s flux has been a long time coming, but seems to be quickly picking up steam. He has played defensive snaps in 4 games this season, with snap counts progressing 2, 4, 6, 12 in those 4 games. Stats & Snaps offered a strongly positive report on Magee’s outing against the Chargers:
Jordan Magee packed a lot of game action into 12 defensive snaps. He registered 2 tackles, 1 assist and a team-high 3 missed tackles (PFR: 2 misses, still team-leading), with 2 defensive stops. He added 1 QB hurry on 2 blitzes and was not targeted in 2 coverage snaps. Altogether, Magee registered defensive stats on 7/12 snaps (58%), with 4 in the ‘good’ column and 3 in the ‘needs improvement’ column.
Defensive end
Javontae Jean-Baptiste, who was drafted in the 7th round of the ‘24 draft, had a solid rookie season, playing 25% of the defensive snaps and 13% of the special teams snaps. He not only tallied 13 tackles and a sack in the regular season, but added another 4 tackles in the playoffs. JJB started in 2025 where he left off in 2024, with his defensive snap percentage rising to 30%. In just three games, he tallied 6 tackles and 1 sack. Unfortunately, he suffered a torn pectoral in the Week 4 loss to Atlanta and seems likely to finish the season on IR. That said, he seems to have a good chance to continue as a solid rotational player with the Commanders for at least the next couple of years, after he recovers from his injury.
Offensive line
Washington drafted an offensive lineman in each of the two most recent drafts, but their careers — both in flux — seem to be moving in different directions at the moment. This year’s first round draft pick, Josh Conerly, has started and played all 5 games of his young NFL career. His two best performances so far seem to have come in Weeks 3 & 4.
RT Josh Conerly Jr kept his starting position and bounced back with a solid performance against the Raiders. The rookie RT has had a baptism of fire to start his career, facing Brian Burns, Micah Parsons and Maxx Crosby in successive weeks. If Sunday’s performance was any indication, he may be better for it. He allowed 0 pressures in pass protection and graded a little below average in run blocking (45.2). The blocking stats can’t really tell us how much he benefitted from having a steadier presence at guard to his left or an inline TE to his right on 25/58 snaps. But it couldn’t have hurt.
It wasn’t all sunshine and puppies, however. Conerly was flagged for holding twice, with one of the penalties declined.
Rookie RT Josh Connerly Jr. had a rough outing in pass pro against Micah Parsons and the Packers two weeks ago, allowing 2 sacks and pressure on 16.1% of dropbacks. He bounced back last week, allowing 0 pressures against Maxx Crosby and the Raiders. Against the Falcons, he allowed 1 QB hit and 1 hurry, for an acceptable 5.4% Pressure Rate. He earned a 55.8 PFF run block grade.
Conerly struggled a bit more against the Chargers, but his position as the starting right tackle seems secure — unless the coaches have a surprise in store when Sam Cosmi returns from injury, likely against the Cowboys or Chiefs.
Fans were certainly surprised when last year’s 3rd round pick at 67th overall, Brandon Coleman, was supplanted by 2022 seventh-rounder, Chris Paul. The tone of comments from OC Kliff Kingsbury and HC Dan Quinn indicate to me that the move is not seen as temporary, and that 24-year-old Coleman is solidly planted on the bench behind 26-year-old Paul.
Grading the young core of players that are in flux
In this week’s Reacts survey, we asked readers to grade these players as a group — or more accurately, as two groups — based on which year they were drafted.
As you can see, fan opinions of these players are quite strong, though the assessment of the rookies is a bit stronger than that of last year’s 2nd to 7th round draft picks. This isn’t surprising since the ‘24 group contains the jettisoned safety, Dominique Hampton; the recently benched offensive lineman, Brandon Coleman; and the under-utilized LB, Jordan Magee — not to mention the injured Javontae Jean-Baptiste.
The relatively strong grades that center on “B” to “B+” range would seem to take into account the recent apparent upswings in production by Johnny Newton, Ben Sinnott, and Luke McCaffrey, along with overall good play across two seasons by Mikey Sainristil.
So far, at least, it feels like the 2025 draft class — which was almost evenly split between “A” and “B” grades — is off to a faster start than the ‘24 group. Conerly and Amos have been full-time or nearly-full-time players at their respective positions. Bill Croskey-Merritt has been eased into his role on offense to some degree, but the Charger game felt like a breakthrough for him that should dramatically increase his usage in Washington’s running-back-by-committee system. Jaylin Lane has performed well as the team’s punt returner and contributed more as a receiver than expected prior to training camp. The only one of this year’s five draft picks that is not making significant on-field contributions to date is Kain Medrano, and coaches seem to perceive a lot of potential for the young linebacker to grow into a role moving forward.
Fan confidence
A week ago, fan confidence, as expressed in our poll, bottomed out at 62% after the Commanders looked out-hustled and out-played by the Falcons in a road game to Atlanta.
This week, the burgundy & gold went on a road trip to to the west coast to take on the then-3-1 Chargers, who were then (and still are) leading the AFC West division, and came home with a 17-point win and a 3-2 overall record.
That boosted fan confidence back up to its Week 1 level of 97%. With Jayden Daniels back and the team having won a game in which they looked like the 2024 version for the first time this season, fans are clearly feeling much better about the direction of the team.
I can’t help but feel that part of that confidence is tied to so many players returning to health and the fact that the Commanders seem to have come out of Week 5 without any significant new injuries, which has been a rare or nonexistent occurrence prior to this week.
I also feel sure that part of the surge in confidence is tied to the play of the young player discussed at the top of this article. Newton, Sainristil, Sinnott, Magee, Jean-Baptiste, Conerly, Amos, Lane, Medrano, Croskey-Merritt and Coleman appear to be the long term future of this team that will surround Jayden Daniels in coming seasons.
Washington fan confidence contrasts sharply with that of NFC East rival fan bases, whose most recent published confidence measures have been…muted:
- Cowboys fans – 39%
- Eagles fans – 33%
- Giants fans – 24%
I suspect that, following last night’s game in which the Giants beat the Eagles by a score of 34-17, the confidence measures for those two fan bases will be headed in opposite directions.
NFC East standings and Week 6 predictions
Following that Thursday night game, the standings in the NFC East are decidedly interesting:
A win by the Commanders on Monday night against the Bears would give Philly and Washington identical overall records at the end of Week 6. Washington would claim first place by virtue of being undefeated in the division, while the Eagles are 1-1 in NFC East play.
National Poll
Each week, SB Nation polls fans of all 32 fan bases by email; in that survey, NFL fans from across the breadth of the league predict winners and losers.
Last week, that national survey incorrectly predicted the outcome of Thursday Night Football, and correctly predicted only one of the four NFC East game outcomes for Week 5.
This week, the survey has already missed again on the Thursday game. Respondents in the national survey are predicting victory for the Commanders and Cowboys this week.
Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.
While I won’t be rooting for the Cowboys to get their 3rd win of the season over the Panthers, I certainly will be rooting for the Commanders to beat the Bears on Monday night. 2025 is the 4th consecutive year the two teams (Chicago and Washington) have played, with Washington winning 2 of 3 from ‘22 to ‘24. Moreover, Washington has won 9 of 11 games since 2004. Bears fans might feel like they are due, but I think their frustration will continue for a while longer.
Of course, Washington travels to Dallas in Week 7 — a game that could be particularly significant if Dallas manages to win this week. Victories over Chicago and Dallas in Weeks 6 & 7 would not only raise Washington’s overall record to 5-2 and ensure that the Commanders remain in first place in the division; those two victories would improve Washington’s divisional record to 2-0 and its record vs NFC opponents to 3-2, both of which can be critical considerations when deciding tie breakers for division winner, wildcard berths and playoff seeding.
All in all, the upcoming game against the 2-2 Bears on Monday night at 8:15 pm in Landover should be another exciting game between two NFC teams that have played one another far too often of late.
Commanders fans have plenty of reason to be both excited and confident about the outcome.
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