Clemson basketball season is here. How do we define success? What are likely outcomes? We dig into it all here as we near the season opener on Monday, November 2.
Past 3 Seasons:
The past three years have been relatively strong in the scope of Clemson basketball history. Oliver Purnell was the last Tigers coach to reach the tournament three times in a row. Now Brownell has a chance to top that with four in a row — and I don’t count the round of 76! Remember the tournament expands to 76 this year so now
there are 44 at-large bids. That translates to the ~52 best teams plus 24 bids from one-bid leagues comprising the field.
2023-24: 6-seed, Elite 8, Loss to Alabama
2024-25: 5-seed, Rnd 64, Loss to McNeese
2025-26: 8-seed, Rnd 64, Loss to Iowa
ACC Standings Projections:
The past three years Clemson has finished as 5th, 3rd, and 6th in the ACC. As such, the media poll pegging them for 6th appropriate. The teams above them include:
- Duke
- Virginia
- Louisville
- Miami
- North Carolina
Duke is the preseason favorite, receiving 45 first-place votes. They have two preseason first-team All-ACC selections in John Blackwell and Patrick Ngongba II. Blackwell was a tremendous transfer addition from Wisconsin. Even with that, it’s their depth that makes them such a prohibitive favorite.
Virginia brings back the preseason ACC Player of the Year Thijs De Ridder, athletic wing Sam Lewis, and second-year player Chance Mallory. Clemson dodged them last year, but they’ll open ACC play with them this year. I believe they’re excellent and have both a high-floor and heigh-ceiling.
Louisville is transfer heavy and quite talented, but they play a 3-point heavy style and haven’t fully proven they can elevate to top-tier status, even though Coach Pat Kelsey deserved credit for rapidly turning the program around. This ranking is fair, but it isn’t unreasonable that Clemson could finish above the Cardinals — they did just last year.
Miami has a chance to improve upon last year’s round of 32 team. They return Shelton Henderson and added Somto Cyril from Georgia to boost their strength in the post and Acaden Lewis from Villanova to facilitate the offense. He averaged over 5 assists per game last year. The Hurricanes are loaded.
North Carolina isn’t vintage UNC right now. Former Nuggets NBA champion head coach Mike Malone is their new coach and it seems like improvement is coming, but I’m not sure their roster is that far above Clemson’s. I like the Matt Able addition (from NC State), but they’re less talented than last year’s team that had Henri Veesar and Caleb Wilson, the latter of which was selected no. 4 overall in the NBA draft. They play Duke and Louisville twice, which is a disadvantage. I could see them finishing below Clemson in the ACC, but getting a better seed in the NCAA tournament.
I give that context to say I believe Clemson’s ceiling is likely around 4th in the ACC. Jumping UNC and Louisville may be feasible, and getting the double-bye gives you some hope in the ACC tournament. It also reduces the number of games you have to play leading into the tournament.
Goal: Earn a top 4-seed and double-bye in Greensboro. Since 2005, 18 of the 21 ACC tournament champions have been top-4 seeds. Stacking extra wins in the ACC tournament is not especially important, but bringing home Clemson’s first ACC tournament championship would be special. Nevertheless, I wouldn’t be disappointing with a 6th place finish, as the real focus is the NCAA tournament.
NCAA Tournament projections:
The NCAA Tournament is expanding from 68 to 76 teams, with at-large bids increasing from 37 to 44. Clemson had already elevated and reaching the NCAA tournament was starting to become an annual expectation. With expansion, it absolutely should be the bare minimum every single year. The major sports sites are currently projecting Clemson to be a tournament team.
- ESPN: No. 11 seed, play-in game
- On3: No. 9 seed
- CBS: No. 8 seed
The biggest goal for the regular season is to earn a berth into the round of 64. With the tournament expansion there are really two bubbles. There’s the traditional bubble in terms who gets in the field of 76-team tournament. The new bubble is who avoids the play-in round. The 12 lowest at-large teams as well as the 12-lowest conference champions play in the play-in round.
Making the Round of 64, not some non-sense play-in game a few days prior is what we’re aiming for. On3 and CBS project Clemson to return to the 8-9 game where they lost to Iowa last season. I’d consider that a success and a 7-seed or better a major win as it provides a much better path through the first weekend.
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Schedule Breakdown Prediction
I always like to assess the non-conference as a separate block of the season. Losses in non-conference games seem to count extra because there are only a handful of marquee matchups. Clemson has six non-conference games against mid-major opponents where they have a 95% or greater win probability. If we assume they handle business there and put those to the side, here are the remaining games on the schedule before ACC play begins.
- November 13 — Georgetown: Early home test
- November 23 — Ole Miss: Maui Invitational opener
- November 24 – BYU / Washington: Maui Invitation game 2
- November 25 – VCU / Arizona / Providence / Colorado State: Maui Invitation game 3
- December 1 — Auburn: ACC/SEC Challenge
- December 12 — at TCU: Road test
- December 15 — at South Carolina: Rivalry matchup
- December 19 — Cincinnati: Neutral-site matchup
In ACC play, the Tigers dodge North Carolina and play Georgia Tech and Florida State twice. I’m not sure UNC is any better than Florida State, but when you’re permanent rival (Georgia Tech) is one of the three worst teams in the conference, it gives you a little boost.
Expectations
Injuries to Carter Welling and Zac Foster are reason to temper expectations, but not enthusiasm. Even without the expansion of the NCAA tournament, I’d peg Clemson to make the field. Coach Brownell once again constructed a roster with great efficiency and will coach an offense-oriented group into being competent defensively.
Non-conference play is incredibly important both for the conference perception and Clemson’s resume. The Tigers play 14 non-conference games and 18 ACC games. Since six of those 14 non-conference games are “buy” games against Stetson, American, North Dakota, The Citadel, Le Moyne, and Colgate, the other eight seem to get weighed a little more heavily than ACC games.
KenPom projects Clemson to go 9-3 in non-conference play, but excludes the two TBD matchups after Ole Miss in the Maui Invitation. Clemson was 10-3 in non-conference play last year. Their win against Georgia was a key factor in giving them a solid resume at the end of the year. I project them at 11-3 this year with the most likely losses coming in the Maui Invitational, at TCU, and vs. Auburn.
Clemson has excelled in ACC play over the last three seasons, posting records of 11-9, 18-2, and 12-6 last year. KenPom projects a 10-8 record, but I am slightly more optimistic and will peg the Tigers for and 11-7 ACC performance. Last year, 11-7 would have earned a 6th seed in the ACC tournament so that’s right on par with pre-season media polls.
Combined, an 11-3 non-conference record plus an 11-7 ACC record comes to a 22-10 season which likely puts Clemson right back in the 8-9 range for March Madness. Is that a success? It depends on postseason performance.
What is success?
Miss the 76-team NCAA tournament field: Total failure and a surprise in the worst kind of way.
Lose in the round of 76: Somewhat disappointing, but not completely shocking either.
Lose in the round of 64: I’m content. Historically, this is a success and would set a Clemson record for consecutive NCAA tournament appearance by the same coach, but I still wouldn’t be thrilled. I want to celebrate a real tournament win.
Reach the round of 32: Significant success and would be a top 10 season in school history. I wouldn’t be stunned, but my projection is a little more conservative than this.
Reach the Sweet 16 or better: This would be a surprising run and an absolutely total wild success.
