I’m running out of “the sky isn’t falling” words. The team is still 18 over .500. The team is still going to the playoffs. They are even somewhat likely to hold on to the top Wild Card spot. But at this point, that is more about none of the other teams being good either. We’re going to do something unusual and start with our peek at the scoreboard.
Scoreboard Watching: Padres (Wild Card 2) win (Cubs up 2). Mets (WC 3) lose (Cubs up 5). Giants win (Cubs up 8). The Giants need to go 17-1 to reach 90
wins. Reds lose and fall behind the Giants (the Reds can win 90 games max). The Cubs’ magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 11 with 18 games to go. For what it’s worth, the Brewers lost (Cubs down 7.5). We’ll count down the magic number against the Giants/Reds until the Cubs clinch a playoff spot. Then we’ll turn our attention (presumably) to the Mets and Brewers.
The good news is in the math. In 2023, the Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins reached the playoffs either 84 wins each. That was, of course, the year the Cubs missed the playoffs with 83 wins and the D-backs reached the World Series after being the Cubs a handful of times in September. Last year, it was the AL with the Royals and Tigers reaching the playoffs at 86 wins. It’s looking increasingly likely that multiple NL teams will reach the playoffs with fewer than 90 wins. The Cubs need only split their remaining 18 games to reach 90 wins.
To be fair, these last three days it has generally felt difficult to look at this Cubs team and see a team that will even split their remaining 18 games. With the loss Monday night, the Cubs lost their third straight game for the fourth times this year. They’ve never lost four straight. Of course, this team doesn’t feel as dominant as its record. It has a longest winning streak of five games. This has been an odd season.
So we’re going to be left feeling like Shōta Imanaga pitched badly, having allowed three runs in the first inning. Also, that was a quality start. To be fair, the minimum qualification quality start with three runs allowed over six innings does always feel a little unsatisfying. But, that’s supposed to be good enough. And here again, we have this multiple personality disorder team. This team is likely to win 90 games because of an explosive offense. 20 times they’ve scored 10 or more runs. 33 times they’ve allowed one or fewer. They are undefeated in both of those groups. Those circles have some overlap.
But here is that multiple personality disorder. Those 20 games with double digit scoring. But also, five losses when they only allowed two runs. Nine losses when they allowed three runs. This is their 11th when they allowed four. You’re always going to get into some pitchers’ duels and be on the wrong side some. It just feels like a team that has an explosive offense shouldn’t have 25 games where they allowed four or less and also lost. There haven’t been 150 games yet. More than one is six games, they hold an opponent to four or less while also losing.
This is the 94th game of the year that they have allowed four or fewer. They are 69-25. The general tipping point for runs allowed is four. That is visible for the Cubs with a 6-11 record when they allow exactly four runs. They are 18-9 when they hold an opponent to three. So it feels wrong that this team is 6-11 when they allow four.
Even with this miserable second half, they still average 4.888 runs per nine innings. This team should be at or near .500 when allowing exactly four runs. To be fair, in sample sizes this small, there will be some outliers. So I’m not overly tilted by this one number. But I am saying it’s a surprising number. The Cubs have 12 wins in high scoring games. Their other 59 games come out of low or relatively low scoring games.
Statistically, the high scoring offense was a mirage. Or a tool that enabled the pitching to perform better. This team was actually carried by its pitching. It was the bullpen at times and consistently buoyed by starting pitching. Defense is the glue that holds it all together.
Pitch Counts:
- Cubs: 125, 32 BF (8 IP)
- Braves: 117, 33 BF
The Cubs aren’t bad here. This is 15.625 pitches per inning. Not great, but no disaster. Eight batters over the minimum. Four runs in that scenario is a decent result. The Braves only threw 13 pitches per inning and faced six batters over the minimum. One run feels about right. The Cubs had just one extra base hit and one steal. They drew one walk. The Braves had two homers and a double and stole one base. They drew no walks. They did have a batter reach via HBP.
The Braves used three relievers and none of them threw more than 12 pitches. They’ll have a fully available bullpen for the remaining two games. The Cubs had Aaron Civale throw 45 pitches. He’s worked almost exclusively as a starter in his career. I wouldn’t expect to see him again in this series.
Three Stars:
- Shōta Imanaga for three runs over six. Nice recovery after the disastrous first.
- Nico Hoerner with the one double and one run scored for the offense.
- Dansby Swanson with a single and a stolen base. No Cub reached base twice. No Cub had a scoreless inning.
Game 144, September 8: Braves 4, Cubs 1 (81-63)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Dansby Swanson (.035). 1-3, SB
- Hero: Nico Hoerner (.011). 1-4, 2B, R
- Sidekick: Seiya Suzuki (.001). 1-4
THREE GOATS
- Billy Goat: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.132). 0-4
- Goat: Shōta Imanaga (-.118). 6 IP, 23 BF, 5 H, 0 BB, 3 ER, 4 K (L 9-7)
- Kid: Matt Shaw (-.088). 0-2, SF, RBI
WPA Play of the Game: Ozzie Albies homered with two outs and no one on in the first inning for the game’s first run. (.103)
*Cubs Play of the Game: Nico Hoerner doubled leading off the seventh with the Cubs down three. (.059).
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Carson Kelly 74-54 over Colin Rea (133 total votes).
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +29
- Matthew Boyd +23
- Shōta Imanaga +20
- Jameson Taillon +16
- Michael Busch +14.67
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Carson Kelly -17
- Ben Brown -19
- Dansby Swanson -21.33
- Seiya Suzuki -29
Up Next: Game two of the three-game series. Cade Horton (9-4, 2.78, 103.2 IP) gets the start for the Cubs. He was brilliant last time, allowing only one walk and no hits over five innings last time, against these Braves. He struck out six. He’s 5-1 with a 1.03 over his last seven. The issue, of course, is he’s thrown an even 35 innings over that stretch and will be out after five, almost certainly. Regardless, his rookie season will have been a smashing success.
Spencer Strider (5-12, 4.97, 101.1 IP) makes his 20th start for the Braves, on nine days rest. He faced the Cubs last week on Monday and then hasn’t pitched since. He allowed three runs on five hits and three walks over five innings. He has a 7.75 ERA over his last seven starts. I know how good Strider has been in the past, dominating at times in 2022 (2.67 ERA) and 2023 (20 wins). This Cub team needs to beat Strider Tuesday.
Must win games aren’t really a thing in baseball. But this team has to find some wins.
