Michigan made the trek to Wrigley Field for a matchup with Northwestern and earned a 24-22 victory thanks to a walk-off field goal from Dominic Zvada. Despite the win, the Wolverines fell a few spots in the latest edition of ESPN and Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings.
For those of you who are new to SP+, Connelly describes it as, “A tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency – It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive
in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”
A team’s SP+ rating is calculated from its offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiencies and is used to predict how many points it would beat (or lose to) the “average” college football team by on a neutral field. For example, Michigan’s rating after defeating Northwestern is 14.6, which ranks No. 22 in the country. In other words, Michigan should beat the “average” college football team by 14.6 points on a neutral field.
With Michigan’s rating and spot in the rankings both taking a hit, it shows the Wolverines’ performance was out of line with what the model expected, while other teams might have over performed at the same time to move up in the rankings.
Elsewhere in the Big Ten, Ohio State and Indiana are still at No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in the rankings. However, Oregon slid down to No. 4 after being bypassed by Texas Tech. USC also dropped one spot to No. 13 after defeating Iowa, while the Hawkeyes held onto their spot at No. 15. Penn State and Washington are the only other teams in the conference ranked ahead of Michigan, slotting in at No. 19 and No. 20, respectively.
Looking ahead to next week, Michigan will play its final road game of the year when it travels to Maryland to take on the 4-6 Terrapins. Maryland lost its sixth consecutive game on Saturday, falling to Illinois on the road by a final score of 24-6. The Terrapins are ranked No. 60 in Connelly’s SP+ rankings with an SP+ rating of 2.7, meaning the metrics are predicting Michigan to win by roughly 12 points.
