Up until the fourth quarter, everything came up roses for the Buccaneers against the New York Jets in the waning hours of summer.
They forced their first defensive turnovers of the season, including a pick-six,
and cruised to a 23-6 lead through three frames, seemingly poised to finally net an “easy” victory after two nail-biters against the Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans.
Well, the situation changed very quickly.
Two scoring drives by the Tyrod Taylor-led Jets — interjected only by a Chase McLaughlin field goal — cut the lead to a single score, 26-20, with less than 4 minutes remaining. Baker Mayfield, efficient throughout the day but clearly limited by the team’s several injuries to the offensive line and receivers, went to work on another drive that included more of his now-vintage Houdini acts (including a 33-yard scramble), positioning the team to go up 9 with roughly 2 minutes left.
Then the improbable struck, with the Jets breaking through for a clean kick block and touchdown return that instantly put the Bucs down 1 instead of up 9.
No. 6 quietly watched the sequence from the sidelines, helmet still on and hands on his hips. His reply?
“Two timeouts, field goal,” he noted, following up in the huddle, “What a time to be alive.”
What followed did not stray from what he did the two weeks prior or just last week against the Seattle Seahawks: he put the team on his back.
Two completions, 48 yards, and a non-chalant knee to put McLaughlin in the perfect spot for the game-winner.
Three wins and zero losses, and at that point the buzz started growing — and no, it wasn’t the celebratory avocado tequila, not everyone is Tom Brady. The Bucs might be pretty good, and Mayfield might be a little more than pretty good.
Alright, evocative anecdote that sets the scene, check! Next up, the FACTS.
Baker Mayfield is having an MVP-caliber start to the 2025 season. He and the Bucs are 4-1 and he’s the major reason why (along with rookie star Emeka Egbuka, of course). His start is comparing favorably to recent MVP winners through five games, and there is no reason to believe he can’t keep it going.
Thus far, Mayfield has completed 112 of 172 passes (65.1%) for 1,283 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 1 interception. He’s averaging 7.5 yards per attempt and has added 144 rushing yards on 19 carries.
Here’s how that compares to recent MVP winners through five games:
- Patrick Mahomes (2022 MVP): 126 of 189 (66.7%), 1,398 passing yards, 15 TDs, 2 INTs, 7.4 YPA, plus 92 rushing yards
- Lamar Jackson (2023 MVP): 100 of 143 (69.9%), 1,030 passing yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs, 7.2 YPA, plus 265 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs
- Josh Allen (2024 MVP): 79 of 131 (60.3%), 945 passing yards, 8 TDs, 0 INTs, 7.2 YPA, plus 130 rushing yards.
An MVP award is not determined through 5 games, we all know that, but starting fast statistically absolutely helps, in addition to creating those signature “moments” that Mayfield already possesses several of. His 4 fourth-quarter comebacks are easily the highest in the league currently, and four comebacks in the first five games has never been achieved before, according to available data. He’s halfway to tying the all-time single-season record of 8, co-held by Matthew Stafford (2016) and Kirk Cousins (2022).
Mayfield’s completion percentage is slightly lower than both Jackson’s and Mahomes’s MVP campaigns at this point but much higher than Allen’s, and his TD-to-INT ratio (10:1) is excellent compared to Jackson (4:2) and approaches Mahomes’s (15:2), and it’s currently tied for the best this year.
And while Mayfield doesn’t match Jackson’s rushing production (who ever does?), his passing yardage (1,283) falls between Jackson (1,030) and Mahomes (1,398), showing he’s on a similar trajectory in terms of offensive production. Even then, Mayfield’s scrambling ability has been paramount to the team performing well in clutch situations, as he touts one of the highest rates of converting scrambles into first downs. Among quarterbacks with at least 10 scrambles, Baker is second-best with a 68.6% conversion rate (11 for 16).
To make comparisons to the current season and other top passers, Mayfield is more than holding his own.
He ranks 10th among qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per dropback (0.278) through five weeks, and his total EPA of 47.83 on 172 dropbacks puts him well into the top third of signal callers. Comparatively, Jackson leads all quarterbacks with 0.535 EPA per dropback, followed by Jared Goff (0.469) and Jordan Love (0.432).
He’s also outperforming several established stars in this metric, including Patrick Mahomes (0.183), Kyler Murray (0.174), Jalen Hurts (0.138), and Justin Herbert (0.100). And what also needs to be accounted for is the context.
Mayfield has done all of this while enduring injuries to his supporting cast right from the get-go. Chris Godwin and Tristan Wirfs both missed the first three games, and Godwin is gone again; Mike Evans hurt his hamstring in Week 3; Bucky Irving got hurt in Week 4; offensive linemen Luke Goedeke and Cody Mauch are both on IR. These are high-level starters we’re talking about.
Some metrics tied to those absences:
- Mayfield faces the highest pressure rate (5.3%) among the top 10 EPA quarterbacks, significantly higher than the next closest names (Jackson and Prescott at 4.6%). Tampa’s receivers also have the second-lowest catch rate at 67.9% (only Stafford’s receivers are worse at 68.2%).
- When it comes to red zone opportunities, Mayfield’s receivers convert just 27.3% of targets into touchdowns, ranking 8th among the top 10.
That’s just on the offensive side of the ball, as the defense has been near-equally battered by misfortune and has struggled several times in key situations despite being average overall. And there’s also special teams, where the Bucs have the 30th-worst EPA (-14.46) of any team in the league and have put the Bucs’ offense and defense in disadvantageous predicaments many times in just five weeks.
That all serves to illustrate that Mayfield has needed to be near-perfect to navigate the Bucs onto the right side of these results — and he has.
And not only has Mayfield needed to produce, but it’s also about how he’s produced. Last year, he and offensive coordinator Liam Coen formed one of the most dynamic duos in the league (4,500 yards, 41 TDs for Mayfield, career-highs), so much so that Coen became the second straight Bucs OC to get a head coaching job after one season. The offense, leveraging a bevy of weapons, operated through a dominant rushing attack and robust screen game that didn’t necessarily minimize Mayfield but definitely made the system easier to operate and allowed him to operate at his apex.
Well, it’s a drastically different story in 2025. Now accounting for the aforementioned limitations and first-time playcaller Josh Grizzard (who’s doing well but not Coen well), the Bucs are running less efficiently (injuries have contributed largely to this) and throwing less-efficient screens but are chucking the rock downfield better. Like way better. Here’s a look at the data:
Buccaneers Screen Pass Efficiency:
- 2024: 91.2% completion rate, 7.6 yards per attempt, 5 TDs, 1 INT, 0.327 EPA per play
- 2025: 100% completion rate, 7.3 yards per attempt, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 0.321 EPA per play
Buccaneers Deep Ball Efficiency (20+ yards):
- 2024: 39.3% completion rate, 11.1 yards per attempt, 7 TDs, 3 INTs, 0.485 EPA per play
- 2025: 41.4% completion rate, 14.9 yards per attempt, 6 TDs, 0 INTs, 0.936 EPA per play
The team’s deep ball EPA per play has nearly doubled this year, and Mayfield has eliminated interceptions on deep throws (he’s gotten a little lucky here) while maintaining a high touchdown rate. Grizzard and Mayfield are also putting receivers in spots to create after the catch on these throws, as they’ve already eclipsed their 2024 deep ball YAC (82 YAC in 2024 vs. 120 YAC in 2025).
For multiple years, people pondered how Dave Canales and Coen “fixed” Baker Mayfield. Not to minimize their roles in his progression, but it’s maybe time to acknowledge Mayfield’s capability of performing at a high level independent of any one playcaller.
The season is long, as we’re barely a quarter of the way through it.
A lot can, and will, change between now and January, but it’s impossible to deny how good the Bucs have looked and how well Mayfield has played to get them into their current standing. If history is any indicator, Mayfield will be in position to keep racking up personal stats while leading a playoff contender — crucial for any MVP candidate.
Since the NFL incorporated a 14-team playoff system, 25 teams have started the season 4-1 and 23 of them — 92.0% — made the playoffs. The only two that didn’t both came in 2021, as the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers finished 8-9 and 9-8, respectively.
Factor in that Mayfield has done this all with his trademark moxie, leading his team with charisma and being entertaining as hell while doing so, and we’re witnessing something truly special in Bucs history. MVP or not, the 30-year-old deserves all the hype around him right now.
Not bad for someone playing scout team defensive end a few years ago.
