You know what time it is? It’s time to count some “Ifs”.
Welcome back to a Rock M Nation specialty! The Godfather Bill C. started this annual exercise years ago and now its time for the 2024 version.
I will cite once again Bill’s 2013 “Ifs” list in which the Tigers achieved 13 of the 15 listed goals and had one of the greatest season in Tiger football history. But the history of the “if”s list Mizzou’s performance goes deeper than that:
- The 2019 Tigers started the year with high hopes but only accomplished a whopping one of the 15 goals I laid out. Subsequently, they had one of the most disappointing years in recent memory and, now, Barry Odom is Purdue’s head coach.
- The 2021 Drinkwitz Tigers had a lot of excitement heading into the season with a .500-record from 2020 and recruiting momentum but managed a 6-7 record. Coincidentally, they hit 4 of the 6 goals I listed to get to 7 wins and none of the goals laid out to get to 10 wins. Mizzou finished 6-7.
- The 2022 version of Eli’s Tigers hit 3 of the 6 goals laid out for 7 wins and 1 of the 9 to get to a 10-win season. Mizzou once again finished 6-7.
- In 2023 – Eli’s best year as the Mizzou head man – coincided with 2-for-3 goals met on the 7-win checklist and 5-for-7 on the 10-win checklist and – wouldn’t you know it? – pulled out an 11-win season.
- In 2024 six of the ten goals laid out for a 10-win season and…let’s see…yup…Mizzou won ten games.
So, look, I’m not saying that what I lay out here is a series of
boxes that must be checked and that’s the only way the Tigers can achieve their win goals. What I am saying is that these goals are, on average, indicative of a specific caliber of team and these pieces do tend to have some value as a roadmap to success.
Ready? Let’s go!
The following goals should be achieved for Missouri to win 7 games in 2025
1. If the starting quarterback runs the offense like Brady Cook
Ignore the touchdowns and interceptions for a minute; for the past three-ish years Brady Cook has operated as Missouri’s primary quarterback with the following cumulative stat line:
- 65.3% completion percentage, 8.0 adjusted net yards per attempt, 41.8% passing success rate, 6.1% sack rate
Those passing stats are good, not great. But Cook posted some of his worst numbers of his career last year, registering career lows in total passing yards, completion percentage, touchdown passes, rushing yards/touchdowns… in a ten-win campaign. The point is that the Drinkwitz/Moore offense doesn’t necessarily need a transcendent quarterback to win, but the player at that position does need to be competent, not turn the ball over, and perform in the clutch during the inevitable one-score late game situation. I don’t care who the quarterback is, they just need to be able to keep the offense humming at an efficient pace, bare minimum.
2. If the running back(s) maintain last year’s efficiency
The Drinkwitz offense is an efficiency-based attack that’s reliant on stringing together multiple successful plays and hoping that a few break out for explosive gains in yardage. The past two years have had an offense that effectively featured both efficiency and explosiveness (2023) and one that featured efficiency but no explosiveness (2024). To get anything going requires those efficient plays and that efficiency is usually a staple of the ground game. Ahmad Hardy, Jamal Roberts, Marquise Davis, and anyone else who gets a carry here or there needs to do so at a 45-48% success rate to open up explosive opportunities elsewhere.
3. If the offensive line is Top 50 in run blocking
Hand-in-hand with point #2 above. Eli Drinkwitz’s offensive line coach is the same but he portalled in a slew of new guys to address the gaps and it’s imperative that it works. A Top 50 run blocking team (at minimum) is what Mizzou was in 2020, 2023, and 2024 and that needs to stay the same amid all of the changes faces along the line.
4. If the defense can be a Top 50 unit
I’m not talking about scheme or aggression or position groups or style or turnovers or any of that. I’m simply asking for this defense – however they want to do it – to finish within the Top 50 of SP+’s defensive rankings.
Eli Drinkwitz teams have had five defenses, here is how they ranked:
- 2020: 50th (5-5)
- 2021: 97th (6-7)
- 2022: 19th (6-7)
- 2023: 14th (11-2)
- 2024: 20th (10-3)
2021 is a bit of an outlier but it seems clear that, as long as you have a functional offense and a Top 50 defense, you can go at least .500 and probably manage 6/7/8 wins. But with a ton of turnover on the offensive side, Top 50 might not be enough to get you into the Playoff. But that’s a discussion for later in this article.
That’s four items to get to seven wins. In theory these shouldn’t be a huge ask but…well…you never know.
However, if Eli Drinkwitz has you believing that Missouri can routinely do much more than 7-wins per year, here’s what those items on my checklist are:
If the following are achieved, a 10-win season is on the table
5. If the new receiving corps can bring any sort of explosiveness to the passing game
An efficient passing game – think the quick passes over the middle or bubble screen to the sideline – is good for an offense but damn if it’s not super boring. It’s good and necessary to reliably churn yards but a college offense also needs explosive plays to make up for the inevitable screw ups. The last two years have featured a receiving corps that can burn through yardage with the best of them and also a platoon of pass catchers that couldn’t get open – or catch a deep ball. Can a fully healthy Speedy Johnson pair with the dangerous Kevin Coleman to hit some deep shots? Will Josh Manning and Donovan Olugbode show a propensity for high-pointing jump balls? Last year managed to get to ten wins without that but it’ll be needed this year if the Tigers want to repeat double-digit wins.
6. If the linebackers become more than happy participants
Don’t get me wrong: Corey Flagg and Tristan Newson were great last year. But the rotating cast of guys next to them – AARP member Chuck Hicks and wee babies Nick Rodriguez, Jeremiah Beasley, and Brian Huff – did next to nothing as far as havoc goes. All the tackles in the world? Check. Any sort of havoc plays? 116th in the nation in terms of linebacker havoc generated.
How does that change? Well, for one, THE most havoc-y linebacker from last year’s group – Khalil Jacobs – is back from injury and can hopefully make it through the year. Plus the addition of Josiah Trotter and an extra year of experience for the wee babies mentioned above gives Corey Batoon’s ‘backers a ton of depth. Get that linebacker havoc up to the 50-60 range and we’re talking some big impacts.
7. If the safeties can eliminate the passing explosiveness
I’m not going to sit here and point fingers at specific players (besides, you know who I’m referencing here) but the safeties were responsible for a good chunk of the explosive plays allowed. Whether that was from bad communication from the corners or just inexperience, it was a massive liability to an otherwise excellent defense. Burks and Carnell return for another year but the transfers need to help cut down on coverage mistakes. The fact that Mose Phillips (8.8 ypa), Santana Banner (9.4), and Jalen Catalon (8.6) were all just as bad at giving up yardage per pass defensed isn’t great, but hopefully a new system with new teammates can help mitigate last year’s weakness.
8. If the offensive line actually improves
As much as we’re wringing our hands over the lineup juggling occurring during camp, there is the possibility this offensive line improves! If they can maintain their Top 12 pass blocking ranks while improving run blocking from 50th to, say, the low 20s? With the hype that these running backs have? Yeah, that could help get you ten wins.
9. The defensive line turns into the 2013 defensive line
Just in case you forgot:
Markus Golden, Michael Sam, Kony Ealy, Shane Ray in 2013: 184 tackles, 55 TFLs, 30 sacks
That’s just from FOUR defensive ends. They weren’t even on the field at the same time!
The current defensive line has all the talented depth in the world on the edge and plenty of experienced pieces on the interior.
10. If Missouri has a star quarterback and he plays the full season
Maybe it’s Pribula. Maybe it’s Horn! Maybe it’s Zollers? Regardless, if a Missouri quarterback establishes himself as the clear-cut starter AND shows that he is a rising star in the league, you can be sure that a lot of the other question marks the offense currently has will be quickly papered over. It’s tough to get to double digit wins without an elite quarterback, but if Missouri finds one this year and gives him the reps and experience needed to grow, 10 wins is on the table.
11. If Blake Craig can be clutch
Given the defense’s likely high ceiling of talent and effectiveness and the offense’s… uh… question-mark-filled-optimism, I’d imagine that Mizzou is going to go through a gauntlet of close games this year. And in situations like that it’s imperative that your quarterback avoids mistakes and your kicker is reliable.
Blake Craig was 17 for 18 on field goals under 40 yards but 7 for 16 on field goals of 40+ yards. He had his big clutch moment against Iowa in the bowl game but he wasn’t thrust into a ton of “do-or-die” situations last year.
Mevis had a big leg but was also clutch as hell. Craig has a big leg as well – if not slightly more scattershot – but his ability to nail the clutch kick is still TBD. Let’s hope we find out the answer this year!
… or not. I’m also good with blowing out every opponent. That would be cool.
12. “Astral Assistance”
This is part of every magical season.
2007 Missouri needed Colorado and Nebraska to stay down, beat a surprisingly resurgent kansas to win the North and, of course, needed every team in the world to lose one game (or two) to wind up as the #1 team in the nation heading into the Big XII Championship.
2013 Missouri needed to either beat Georgia and Florida or hope that they both slipped up twice: even with an unlucky last-second loss to South Carolina, the Tigers made it the SEC Championship and were 60 minutes away from a national championship game appearance.
2023 Mizzou needed a 61-yard field goal to beat Kansas State, a touchdown pass thrown by a punter, and a 4th-and-17 converted to beat homely Florida, as well as a clutch kick by Harrison Mevis to seal the deal. And they were incredibly lucky that injuries to Ennis Rakestraw, Chad Bailey, and Ty’Ron Hopper didn’t derail the season as well.
Hell, even Alabama has needed luck to make it in a few of the Playoffs that they’ve won. Or USC in 2004. Or LSU in 2007. Or Auburn in 2010. And Ohio State in 2014. All of these teams won it all, but needed teams around them to screw things up as well.
To win in college football you need to recruit an excellent team, win as many games as possible and hope for some luck. If we get to this point and don’t get the luck we need it’s still an excellent year regardless and would be a problem that would feel devastating given expectations but, truly, we’d be happy to have.
Then again, we’re now in an era where one loss doesn’t derail the season, and potentially a two or three-loss SEC team gets a shot at the national championship. The ability to take a loss and still keep going is an incredibly fortuitous development for non-blue bloods, and the expanded playoff is an astral assist all on its own.
So what do you think? Am I way off? How many of these are feasible? I can’t wait to bookmark this and view at the end of the season to see how smart/dumb I was. Until then…. LET’S GO TIGERS.
