It feels increasingly likely that MacKenzie Gore will be on the Nationals Opening Day roster. Those odds only went up when the Mets swung a trade for Brewers ace Freddy Peralta. The teams desperate to
make a move for a starting pitcher are decreasing by the day. With that in mind, it really feels like MacKenzie Gore will be getting the ball on Opening Day.
This offseason I have been mostly operating under the assumption that Gore would be dealt. The southpaw only has two years of team control remaining, and the Nats seem unlikely to be true contenders in the next two years. Gore is also a Scott Boras client, making an extension unlikely.
When you consider these factors, not trading Gore feels like a risk. Pitchers come with more injury risk than ever these days. Tommy John Surgery looms like a dark cloud for pitchers. If Gore suffers a major injury, his value would be gone. However, Paul Toboni appears willing to run that risk.
There is some payoff to keeping Gore. If he has a strong first half, his trade value could increase at the deadline. It is also possible that the Nats surprise some folks, though I do not think Toboni is counting on that. For me, holding on to Gore just feels like a big risk.
Teams have had a clear appetite for starting pitchers on the trade market this offseason. Shane Baz, Edward Cabrera and Freddy Peralta have all gotten impressive returns. Peralta is the best pitcher of the group, but only has one year of control. That did not stop the Mets from giving up multiple top 100 prospects.
One of my favorite analysts Lance Brozdowski wondered if that package would have been enough to get Gore. A package of Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat certainly would have excited me. Sproat is a high floor arm that should be a middle of the rotation piece. Williams is a potential spark plug at the top of a lineup.
Most baseball fans, including myself, see Peralta as a much better pitcher than Gore. He is certainly more proven, with multiple All-Star appearances and a top 5 finish in NL Cy Young voting last year. Brozdowski actually said he thinks they project similarly in 2026, which really surprised me.
If you look at some of the advanced numbers, you start to see his point though. Over the last two seasons, Gore has a FIP of 3.64, while Peralta’s FIP sits at 3.90. Peralta had a 2.70 ERA with a 3.64 FIP last year, while Gore had a 4.17 ERA with a 3.74 FIP. It sure seems like Peralta is a regression candidate. I would take Peralta next year, but it is closer than I first thought.
With the Mets out of the Gore sweepstakes and February approaching, it sure feels like MacKenzie Gore will remain a Nat. There have been multiple reports that the asking price for Gore is sky high. Yankees reporter Jack Curry said the Bronx Bombers have discussed Gore, but have been turned off by the asking price.
This report came out a couple days ago, which is interesting. The Yankees traded for Marlins lefty Ryan Weathers about a week ago. I thought that trade would take them out of the mix for Gore. However, this does not appear to be true. Gore has proven to be much more durable than Weathers, so it seems like the Yankees want more of a sure thing.
The Yankees were also rumored to be in on Peralta, so Gore could be the fallback option. However, they don’t have that much incentive to move off their demands, given the fact they have Weathers already.
Other potential suitors include teams like the Giants and the A’s. Prying first baseman Bryce Eldridge away from the Giants would be a dream scenario. The Nats desperately need first base help and Eldridge is a local product. It does not seem like the Giants have put him on the table though because that deal would have probably happened already if he was.
The A’s are a team that has intrigued me for a while. They have a playoff caliber lineup, but a weak rotation. Gore would give them an arm with top of the rotation upside, something they do not currently have. He also fits within their budget as well. They have plenty of young talent for the Nats to choose from as well.
However, I don’t think we will see a Gore trade this winter anymore. I was confident it would happen, but as we get closer to Spring Training without a deal, it feels less likely. Personally, I think the Nats should trade him, but I understand not wanting to settle. Paul Toboni is taking a risk here, but it is one that could pay off.
