On Saturday, the NCAA selection committee released its annual top 16 reveal. They did not have much to say on the Illini, but what they said about other teams can provide some insight into how Illinois will be valued by the committee.
Illinois was 7th, behind a clear top three of Michigan, Duke and Arizona, and then a tight three-way race for the final 1-seed between Iowa State, UConn and Houston. They said the head-to-head win for Iowa State over Houston was “one of the determining factors” in putting
them ahead, and that UConn also went ahead of Houston because their three best wins are better than Houston’s three best wins.
Personally, I don’t agree with these decisions: I would have had the order Houston, Iowa State, UConn, and still have Houston above UConn despite their loss to Arizona (I dropped Iowa State behind UConn due to its loss at BYU). I think a very close road loss doesn’t outweigh the better metrics and better Big 12 record (I consider head-to-head more in close calls if the win is either very convincing or on the road), and focusing on the top three wins to separate Houston and UConn is ignoring way too much of the resume: Houston has no losses outside of Quad 1A while UConn lost a home stinker to Creighton, and Houston’s efficiency metrics are well clear of UConn’s.
Despite my disagreements, those statements, if they get applied consistently and not just in specific cases to avoid the ire of blowhard Dan Hurley, tend to favor the Illini. They are in a tight race with Purdue for seeding and a spot in St. Louis, and the head-to-head win in West Lafayette could be an important factor in why the committee has Illinois above them at the moment. Also, if the committee is focusing on the very top end wins, Illinois’ wins at Purdue, at Nebraska, home against Texas Tech and neutral against Tennessee stack up very well against most teams in the 2/3 range. The committee also mentioned how they take injuries into account, particularly in the case of lowering Texas Tech due to the incredibly unfortunate JT Toppin injury. This bodes well for the Illini as well, as their losses to Michigan State and Wisconsin with key players out will minimize their negative impact.
Illinois has just one game this week, but it is the biggest one of the regular season. While the mind-numbingly frustrating loss at UCLA probably takes them out of competition for a 1-seed, if they can win that one it would really solidify their standing on the 2-line and ahead of Purdue for St. Louis.
Midwest (Chicago)
- Michigan (Buffalo)
- Iowa State (Saint Louis)
- Michigan State (Buffalo)
- Texas Tech (San Diego)
- Vanderbilt
- Louisville
- Villanova
- Miami (FL)
- Texas A&M
- UCLA
- New Mexico/Ohio State
- Stephen F. Austin
- UNC-Wilmington
- Portland State
- Navy
- UMBC/Bethune-Cookman
Notes on the Region:
Even with the loss to Duke, Michigan is still best in show in six of the seven metrics on the team sheet and should remain the top overall seed. They get an easy draw to the Elite Eight as a reward. Texas Tech gets dropped some by the committee due to the JT Toppin injury, but it will probably never be enough to truly show how big a loss that is for Texas Tech. The five-seed isn’t any better though, as Vanderbilt is just 5-6 after their undefeated start, and does not look to be on the level of the top teams in the SEC.
UCLA was right on the edge heading into the game with the Illini, and what looked to be a blowout loss could have put them in a very bad place, but Cronin’s crew turned on the cheat codes for about 15 minutes of gametime when they could not miss a shot, and got the benefit of bad reffing and bad execution late from the Illini. The win puts them clear of the play-in games, in a battle of obnoxious chrome-domed coaches between Mick and Kevin Willard.
Ohio State also got a big win this week over Wisconsin to sneak into the field as the last team in, thanks to Oregon dropping USC. The Buckeyes are a big fat 0-9 in Quad 1 games this year, but that one might backdoor its way into Quad 1 territory if Wisconsin finishes strong. Being in Dayton for the play-in game should be an advantage but seeing as their fans don’t even come to games in Columbus it might not be in Bruce Thornton’s maiden voyage into the tournament.
East (Washington D.C.)
- Duke (Greenville)
- Purdue (Greenville)
- Florida (Tampa)
- Kansas (Portland)
- Arkansas
- Wisconsin
- Saint Louis
- Kentucky
- UCF
- Auburn
- Miami (OH)
- Yale
- Utah Valley
- Austin Peay
- Troy
- Tennessee State/Howard
Notes on the Region:
The top two teams in the region get some in-person scouting opportunities in Greenville, as the preseason National Player of the Year Braden Smith would go against the likely National Player of the Year Cam Boozer. Speaking of spectacular freshmen, Kansas and Arkansas would feature Darryn Peterson, as long as he isn’t cramping, against Darius Acuff, who just went for 49 against Alabama last week. With red-hot reigning champs Florida also in this bracket, I would call this the strongest region.
Wisconsin is doing Badger things this year, pushing for a triple bye in the Big Ten tournament that no one expected. However, Badger things would very much include going down in the first round to an undefeated Miami (Ohio) team that is lethally efficient offensively.
West (San Jose)
- Arizona (San Diego)
- Illinois (Saint Louis)
- Gonzaga (Portland)
- Virginia (Philadelphia)
- Tennessee
- BYU
- Utah State
- St. Mary’s
- SMU
- Clemson
- Mizzou/Indiana
- South Florida
- Liberty
- Hawaii
- East Tennessee State
- Long Island
Notes on the Region:
Illinois gets put back with a few matchups I have already wrote about a time or two: East Tennessee State in round one, Clemson potentially in round two, and the western one-two punch of Gonzaga and Arizona in the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight. Utah State is an opponent I believe that I have not had the Illini across from yet. The Aggies are a team that forces turnovers defensively and gets to the basket offensively. I don’t mind the matchup for Illinois though, as they can be exploited on the defensive glass, an Illini specialty, and we are a very low-turnover team. Zvonomir Ivisic could play extended minutes in this one to protect the paint.
Elsewhere in the bracket, Mizzou and Indiana in Dayton is some good hate-watching for Illini fans. Both are small, offense-heavy teams that could play a shootout. The winner flies across the country to Portland for the right to lose to BYU, a dangerous 6-seed that Illinois could see in the Sweet Sixteen.
South (Houston)
- Houston (Oklahoma City)
- UConn (Philadelphia)
- Nebraska (Oklahoma City)
- Alabama (Tampa Bay)
- Saint John’s
- North Carolina
- NC State
- Iowa
- Santa Clara
- Georgia
- Texas
- Belmont
- High Point
- North Dakota State
- Wright State
- Merrimack
Notes on the Region:
With all the other 5-seeds being from the SEC, Saint John’s draws Alabama in the second round for a rematch of an early November win for Alabama. The Crimson Tide shot a whopping 81 times in that game, as they were able to control the pace and avoid turnovers. I would favor Alabama again, as they have the strong edge in guard play.
the 6-11 and 7-10 matchups will be an ACC/SEC challenge of sorts, with North Carolina getting Texas and NC State drawing Georgia. If North Carolina makes it through, it would be interesting to see how Caleb Wilson and Hubert Davis handle Nebraska’s baseline traps. If Nebraska can overcome the talent deficit there, the Sweet Sixteen match up with UConn would pit two of the more intricate off-ball screening offenses in the country against each other. I’d pick whoever wins the matchup of finesse versus physicality between Rienk Mast and Tarris Reed.
First Four Out: VCU, San Diego State, USC, Virginia Tech
Next Four Out: Cal, TCU, Cincinnati, Seton Hall
Bids By Conference:
SEC: 11
Big Ten: 10
ACC: 8
Big 12: 7
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
Mountain West: 2
