It is obligatory to include a reference to the 2023 World Series in every preview between these two teams, so let’s get that out of the way first. As we remember well, Texas prevailed in five games. But since then? Neither team has returned to the playoffs. It was the first World Series since 2006 where neither side reached the playoffs the following year – and, of course, it was considerably harder to make the post-season in 2007. Arizona narrowly missed out on tiebreakers, but Texas finished with
a losing record in 2024, slumping to a 78-84 mark. The following year saw the Rangers with the better record, ending exactly even at 81-81.
This year, they’re there or thereabout again. Texas are currently 72-75. Normally, such a mediocre record would be well out of the post-season picture, but this is the American League in 2026. So the Rangers are still in the hunt for a spot, despite being below .500: they are two back of the Guardians for the last AL spot. Even winning the AL West is not out of the question. Texas are currently three games behind Houston there, and all told have a playoff percentage of 20.3%, per Fangraphs. While not as good as the Diamondbacks, I’ve no doubt the Rangers will still feel there’s a chance, and I’d expect them to play like it this weekend.
The season so far
No doubt about the star for Texas (hohoho) so far on the position player side. Ezequiel Durán’s remarkable flexibility – he has started at every position bar pitcher and catcher – combined with a 124 OPS+ has powered him to 4.6 bWAR. It’s kinda out of nowhere, considering his total over the previous four seasons and 362 games was only 1.7 bWAR. Interestingly, former Diamondback Alex Cintron, now a hitting coach for Texas, may have helped sustain Durán’s breakout campaign, with an adjustment in the player’s stance. Wyatt Langford and Corey Seager have also been having solid seasons, while Jake Burger easily leads the team in HR, RBI and strikeouts.
The Rangers lead the American League in OPS+ at 108, but that has largely been undone by the pitching side. They rank 13th among the 15 clubs there, with an ERA+ of 91. Weirdly though, only the Tigers and the Red Sox have more shutouts than the Rangers, who have blanked the opposition 13 times. One starter we won’t see is Jacob DeGrom, but nice to see him stay mostly healthy. He could post consecutive 30-start seasons for the first time since 2019, though had to leave his last start with groin tightness. We probably don’t want to be trailing going into the ninth, because Texas closer Jacob Latz has been their best pitcher by bWAR. He has a 1.85 ERA to go with 28 saves, and a FIP of 2.65 suggests he has been deservedly good.
Pitching match-ups
At time of writing, early Friday morning. MLB.com lists all six probable pitchers for this series as a thoroughly unhelpful, “TBA”. So what follows is a best guess, going off previous pitchers in each team’s rotation plus other sources online, and is subject to change. So don’t come whining to me…
Friday 11th: LHP MacKenzie Gore (8-10, 4.51) vs. RHP Merrill Kelly (9-13, 5.06)
We’ll be hoping for better this time, against the man whose name sounds like the villain in an eighties slasher film. For Arizona faced Gore on the road in May, and he tossed eight innings of one-run ball, allowing only three hits. It was his best start of the year by Game Score. But his ERA is more than two runs higher on the road: 5.63 vs. 3.36. Kelly has been showing some improvement; last outing was a quality start, and his first appearance without a walk since May 20. He’d walked 3+ each of his previous six. Merrill is 4-9 when issuing more than two BBs in a start, compared to a 5-4 record when he walks zero or one batters.
Saturday 12th: RHP Kumar Rocker (5-11, 4.61) vs. RHP Brandon Pfaadt (7-2, 3.53)
The #3 pick in the 2022 draft hasn’t lived up to expectations yet. Over his first 41 starts, he has an ERA+ of just 79. His last appearance came following an opener on September 4, and it did not go well, allowing nine hits over five innings. Though his first such “bullpen” outing, earlier this season, led to 7.2 shutout innings at Coors Field. Looks like a regular start here though. After a stellar month and a half, Pfaadt has come back to earth. He’s not missing as many bats, with only eight strikeouts over his last three starts, covering 19 innings. But he has thrown at least six innings each time, keeping Arizona in the games: all three ended up being decided by one run.
Sunday 13th: RHP Cal Quantrill (8-5, 2.89) vs. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (15-5, 2.55)
If this does turn out to be the match-up, it’s likely the best of the series. With three – possibly four – starts remaining, ERod has 5.3 bWAR, and could end up surpassing his career high of 5.5 bWAR, back in 2019. Indeed, his total bWAR over five years and 114 starts from 2021-25 was only 5.6 bWAR. It has been a spectacular resurrection. Meanwhile, Quantrill started the year in the bullpen, but has been a revelation since returning to the Texas rotation in late June. He has a 1.70 ERA over his last six outings, with a K:BB ratio of 34:6 across 37 innings. While his FIP is somewhat higher, at 2.80, it’s hardly extravagant. This promises to be a tough one.
Prediction
When we faced the Rangers at Arlington in mid-May, we squeaked out the opener 1-0, but then lost the next two by margins of 4-7 and 5-6. With the D-backs now in a tough fight for a wild-card spot, they’ll certainly be looking to do better. Given the lack of certainty about the pitching match-ups, it’s hard to say how things might break. Saturday’s game is the only one where I feel there’s a definite edge, favoring Arizona. The others could go either way – and I’d not be surprised if that’s exactly what they do, the D-backs taking one and dropping the other. Just don’t ask me which! So, all told: the Diamondbacks win two out of three. Enough? We’ll have to ask the Giants about that…
