Northwestern (8-10, 0-7 B1G) is set to play USC (14-4, 3-4 B1G) on Wednesday night in its first of two games on a midseason west coast roadtrip. The ‘Cats have started the season 0-7 in Big Ten play and
will look to break its January slump against the 14-4 Trojans.
Here are three keys to victory for Northwestern in University Park:
Win the turnover battle
After Northwestern’s 77-58 loss to Nebraska on Saturday, the Cornhuskers’ head coach Fred Hoiberg praised his squad for being able to win the turnover battle against a Northwestern that he claimed to be the toughest team in the nation to turnover. Statistically speaking, Hoiberg is correct. The ‘Cats average just 8.5 turnovers a game, the lowest mark in the nation to this point in the season.
Against Nebraska, Northwestern lost the turnover battle for one of the first times all season, losing the ball 11 times and nabbing just five takeaways on the other end. Granted, Nebraska sports the best turnover differential (-4.1) in the Big Ten and forces the fourth most turnovers per game (13.2) in the conference. The Cornhuskers’ speedy, rotationally sound defense serves as a good tune-up for the Trojans’ high-tempo, rim-to-rim play style.
USC plays with the 59th fastest tempo in the nation, forcing a lot of turnovers AND turning the ball over a lot. The Trojans forcs 13.3 turnovers a game, the third most in the Big Ten, but turn the ball over 12.9 times per game, the second worst rate in the conference. USC excels when Chad Baker-Mazara and Co. are able to overwhelm their opponents with their style of play, but the Trojans can be vulnerable against more poised opponents that can protect the basketball. In each of USC’s three most recent losses this season, it’s lost the turnover battle by at least five, surrendering as many as 21 turnovers in a 30-point loss to the No. 4 ranked Michigan Wolverines.
Wednesday night, it will be critical for Northwestern to learn from its experience playing Nebraska’s high-motor defense and return to its identity as the team with the fifth best turnover differential in the Big Ten. The ‘Cats are capable of taking care of the ball better than no other, but can’t get overwhelmed by the high-pace, aggressive play style that defines the Trojans’ basketball identity.
Defend the paint
Similarly to Northwestern, USC cannot shoot the basketball. The Trojans’ 32.8% three-point shooting percentage ranks 14th in the Big Ten. Though, 19 of their 121 made three-point attempts this season came from the injured Rodney Rice and Amarion Dickerson, two of their best perimeter shooters. Without Rice and Dickerson’s contributions, the Trojan roster the ‘Cats will face tomorrow night has shot an even worse 31.7% from deep.
At this point in the season, pending the debut of highly-touted freshman guard Alijah Arenas, the Trojans have just one proven multi-level scorer in sixth-year guard Chad Baker-Mazara. Outside of Baker-Mazara, a large part of the Trojans’ offensive production comes from forwards Ezra Ausar, Jacob Cofie and Jaden Brownell. The six-foot-nine Ausar and six-foot-ten Cofie and Brownell terrorize opponents in the paint with their height, combining for an average of 33.4 points per game.
Yet, Northwestern’s starting forward trio, consisting of six-foot-seven Nick Martinelli, six-foot-eight Tre Singleton and six-foot-ten Arrinten Page, has the size on paper to defend the Trojans’ front three. The Wildcat big men haven’t been the most highly rated defenders this season — Page’s struggles especially have been well document, and could even keep him off the floor in this one — but they’ll have to step up on Wednesday night given how important the Trojan forwards are to their half-court offense.
Get Arrinten Page involved offensively
In the ‘Cats’ most recent games, they’ve fallen into an offensive slump. After starting the season as the 41st ranked offensive team in the nation per BartTorvik.com, the ‘Cats have fallen to 77th in their last four games. In three of its last four games, Northwestern scored under 70 points, something that has happened this season just four total times.
For a team slumping offensively, sometimes it needs to focus a little bit extra on getting its best offensive players involved in the game plan. Against USC, that critical player should be Arrinten Page.
In each of Northwestern’s three recent sub-70 scoring games, Page has been limited to under ten points, something that has happened just five times all season. And, it should come as no surprise that there’s a correlation between the ‘Cats’ recent offensive slump and Page’s recent struggles. According to EvanMiya.com, Page is Northwestern’s third best offensive player, with an OBPR of 2.97 which falls just behind that of Jayden Reid. Page’s offensive importance spans beyond his ability to score the basketball, as his presence in the paint opens up room for Northwestern’s guards on the perimeter, who are oftentimes unable to create separation without the extra space afforded by Martinelli and Page’s gravity inside.
Though Page’s recent struggles on the court are complicated, and extend to both the offensive and defensive end of the floor, there’s no doubt that Page’s success as a player is very important to this basketball team. Against a high-flying team like USC that averages 83.4 points per game, Northwestern needs to score the ball in order to win, making Page’s re-involvement in the offense a key to victory.
