Welcome to Orlando, FL where MLB executives, media, and players alike all gather for the most transaction-filled portion of the offseason. There’s a trio of Twins in the middle of the juiciest offseason trade
rumors and they finally have their additional partners approved and POBO Derek Falvey reportedly has some “mild payroll flexibility” to work with, meaning Minnesota will likely find themselves at the center of some transactions this week. Let’s dive in.
What Happens to Buxton, Ryan, and Lopez?
Byron Buxton is likely the best hitter available on the trade market and nearly every team in baseball wants him. With All-Star level production and health over the last two seasons and the boon of an incredibly team-friendly contract, it’s easy to see why everyone from the Pirates to the Dodgers have reportedly expressed interest.
The same can be said for 2025 All-Star Joe Ryan who still has a strong market despite faltering in the last two months of the season. Ryan is under team control for two more seasons and has been one of the best and most consistent starters in baseball over the past three seasons. Pablo Lopez, meanwhile, will have a more limited market with $43.5M guaranteed over his final two seasons, but that’s still very affordable for a pitcher who is, at worst, a #2 on an elite staff.
Falvey has been praising that trio and saying he hopes to build around them, and with the Twins’ cash flow issues less prevalent than they were even a month ago, he may get his wish. The industry consensus is now that the Twins will likely hold onto all three players (as I believe they should), but teams like the Dodgers and Red Sox have the young players and prospects to force Falvey’s hand and make a deal he can’t refuse.
Personally, I would give this core one last shot. The AL Central is incredibly winnable (especially if the Detroit Tigers trade two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal) and the trade value of Buxton, Ryan, and Lopez likely remains the same at the trade deadline. Health is the only real risk factor, but that’s sports for you. Run it back, see if players like Royce Lewis, Luke Keaschall, Brooks Lee, and their bevy of young pitchers can take a leap, and give yourself a fighting chance in 2026.
MLB Draft Lottery: Will Lady Luck Smile on Minnesota Again?
The Twins have been the beneficiary of the new MLB Draft Lottery already, jumping several spots 2022 and 2024 to nab future top-20 prospects Walker Jenkins and Brooks Lee. This year, the Twins hold the second-best lottery odds thanks to their weak finish to the season and the Rockies and Nationals being ineligible for a top 10 pick. They hold a 22.18% chance at the first pick in the draft and a very likely shot for their pick to land in the top three. Even in a weak draft, a top three pick is almost a guaranteed Top 50 prospect and likely one who can contribute to the Big League roster soon if their recent picks are anything to go by.
Rule 5 Draft: Who Will the Twins Lose and/or Gain?
The Twins’ roster is in flux and currently has several 40-man roster spots that are easy to free up (see: Ryan Kreidler, Edouard Julien, Ryan Fitzgerald, Carson McCusker, Jhonny Pereda and potential trades for Trevor Larnach/James Outman) which means they are primed to make at least one selection in this year’s Rule 5 Draft. They selected Eiberson Castellano in 2024, but he struggled in Spring Training and was ultimately returned to the Phillies where he struggled through 36 innings while battling injury. As a reminder, any players selected in the Rule 5 Draft must be kept on the active 26-man roster or injured list for the entirety of the season, meaning there’s very few players that hit. Of the 15 players selected last season, only Shane Smith of the White Sox, Liam Hicks of the Marlins, and Angel Bastardo of the Blue Jays remained on their respective teams for the entire season.
With several spots in flux, the easiest place to stash a volatile arm is at the end of the bullpen. The Twins already have players like Pierson Ohl and Travis Adams who showed flashes after moving to relief full time, but building a bullpen is all about taking shots and seeing who hits. The Twins need lefties and Hayden Mullins of the Red Sox fits the bill. He has a lower velocity fastball that misses bats thanks to elite extension and shape, and a slider with a good whiff rate. Mullins has a high walk rate and has never pitched above AA, but that hasn’t deterred Minnesota in the past. Everyone available in the Rule 5 Draft has major flaws, which is why they weren’t protected by their teams in the first place.
Other pitchers to watch include Will Childers (Brewers, 3.48 RA9, 9.6 K/9, 5.4 BB/9), Griff McGarry (Phillies, 4.20 RA9, 13.3 K/9, 5.3 BB/9), and Jose Rodriguez (Dodgers, 5.67 RA9, 14.0 K/9, 5.8 BB/9). It’s harder to stash position players, but the Twins could look for a needed utility man among the crop to replace Willi Castro. Cameron Cauley of the Rangers would be the name to watch there with the ability to play SS, 2B, and CF while stealing bases at a high clip, though he’s never played above AA and managed just a league-average .773 OPS in 2025 while striking out in 25% of his plate appearances. If the Twins look for a backup catcher, Arizona’s Christian Cerda and the A’s Daniel Susac both have some pop and respectable defense behind the dish. If they don’t take a pitcher, Susac, a former first-round pick, might be the best option.
On the Twins’ side, they were able to protect most of their at-risk players, but had to leave a few exposed. Notable players include infielder Tanner Schobel (Twins #12 prospect via FanGraphs), breakout outfielders Kala’i Rosario and Kyler Fedko, RHP CJ Culpepper (#10 prospect), RHP Jose Olivares (#16 prospect), and the injured Matt Canterino who could be a draft-and-IL-stash candidate like Jovani Moran reportedly was last season before being traded to the Red Sox.
