First road game of the year. Right off of a disappointing close loss to college football royalty. Missouri has shown that they can hang with the big boys but, remember, this is college football: great teams looks really dumb at times and can absolutely lose to worse programs.
Which brings us to the topic of Auburn. Man…they should be so much better than they are. They won a track meet at Baylor to open the season and the wiped out Ball State and South Alabama.
But then what happened?
One-score loss
at Oklahoma who pulled the is cool as hell “player-gets-lost-in-a-substitution-scrum-and-catches-a-pass” play (which is apparently illegal).
One-score loss at Texas A&M, where neither side could reliably score or move the ball.
10-point loss to Georgia at home with some…interesting…officiating highlighting the day.
You are what your record says you are but that’s why Bill C invented SP+: it gives a little more nuance and detail than a record will. And SP+ sees Auburn as the 27th best team in the country with the 9th-best defense. And Eli Drinkwitz isn’t renowned for his ability to win on the road!
When Missouri Has the Ball
Bad news folks: this defense is legit. 9th in the country overall is intimidating enough but the real issue is that this is the 2nd-best run defense in the country, allowing opposing offenses a measly 28% success rate on the ground. They are Top 30 in standard downs defense and passing downs defense and 13th in 3rd-downs defense. Essentially: this is a better defense than the Alabama defense that held Mizzou to a 1-11 in 3rd downs. So what can a college offense do against such stout competition?
Throw The Dang Ball
Did you notice the stat that I didn’t highlight above? Yeah. Pass defense. Auburn is 79th against the pass and 119th in interception rate (which should make Beau Pribula relax slightly). They don’t give up a ton of yards per pass, mind you, but they will let offenses complete passes at an average rate of 63% (which isn’t great for Auburn). What’s more, offenses tend to find the most success with passes in the 1-10 air yards range, which is exactly where Pribula likes to throw. If Mizzou can manage a 43% success rate through the air then I’d believe they’re doing enough to offset the Auburn defense’s strengths.
Generate Explosive Plays
When you go against an elite rush defense that is also elite in 3rd-down defense, you need to find a way to generate explosive plays so you can bypass the pesky “can’t-convert-on-3rd-down” issue. If Bama was able to make Mizzou look incompetent on 3rd downs last week, Auburn should be able to do so 10x better. Remember Donovan Olugbode? The dude who created half of Mizzou’s explosive plays in one drive? Yeah, get him involved sooner, and get him way more targets. Or anyone who can generate some YAC. Kevin Coleman? Speedy Johnson? This is your time to shine. Let’s aim for at least 9 explosive plays (12+ yard rushes, 16+ yard passes).
Finish Your Dang Drives
Auburn’s scoring defense is on theme as well: elite. Like, 5th-in-the-nation and 3.1 points per scoring opportunity allowed levels of elite. Given the scores of their last three games, the first one to 10 points generally wins. Mizzou should shoot for 5 scoring opportunities and at least 3.4 points per scoring opportunity (17 points).
When Auburn Has the Ball
The Auburn offense is much less scary than the defense. Remember Jackson Arnold? Ol’ butterfingers from the Oklahoma game last year is now the Auburn quarterback and…well…I still don’t think he’s having a great time. One of his top running backs (and team captain) was dismissed from the team earlier this week but, even then, the actual #1 running back is really good/not elite and Auburn can’t pass for beans. 98th in passing, to be more specific, with one of the lowest EPAs per drop back in the country. Auburn does one thing well and that’s it. So….
Stop The Run
Auburn knows they aren’t good at passing but they’re doing this weird mind trick thing where they only deploy the run strategically. They have middling run rates in standard downs and one of the lowest run rates in passing downs. Why? No clue! My best guess is they do it in an effort to keep defenses honest and hope to catch them expecting a run in order to help Jackson Arnold not look like a dip stick when attempting a forward pass. But if Auburn isn’t gaining yards on the ground then they don’t have much else going for them. Goal is a 42% rushing success rate.
Eliminate Cam Coleman
So there is a caveat to everything I said above: Auburn receiver Cam Coleman is a constant threat to break something. He doesn’t have a complex route tree as he’s either running short hitches or deep shots but – if he can overcome is miserable 58% catch rate – he can absolutely make defensive secondaries look stupid and rip off a rare explosive play. Which, as we know, is Mizzou’s kryptonite. Hold Coleman to under 6 targets, 2 catches, and 40 yards.
Conclusion
You probably easily remember Drink’s last road SEC victory since it was against Mississippi State late last year. But do you recall the last time he beat an SP+ Top 30 team on the road?
It’s only happened twice, if that helps.
Ready?
Here we go:
2023 Kentucky (22nd), 2022 South Carolina (24th in SP+)
If this is truly Missouri’s most talented roster than we’d like to see that reflected in the record since – as of now – there is no Playoff seeding based off of SP+ rankings.
This is going to be a much tougher game than some might think it should be but absolutely a game that Mizzou can win if operating at full capacity. Just win!
