Even though Week 12 still isn’t even over, it’s very obvious who the NFC’s playoff spots will come down to. Both NFL Pro’s data and the New York Times’ playoff predictor have the following teams with less
than a two percent chance of making the postseason: the Atlanta Falcons, Minnesota Vikings, Arizona Cardinals, Washington Commanders, New Orleans Saints and New York Giants. With so many teams on the brink of elimination, we’ll break down what matters for the Green Bay Packers moving forward.
NFC Playoff Odds
- Los Angeles Rams: 100% (NFL Pro), 100% (NYT)
- Philadelphia Eagles: 99%, 100%
- Seattle Seahawks: 90%, 91%
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 83%, 80%
- San Francisco 49ers: 80%, 82%
- Detroit Lions: 76%, 80%
- Green Bay Packers: 78%, 77%
- Chicago Bears: 62%, 54%
- Carolina Panthers: 20%, 22%
- Dallas Cowboys: 10%, 13%
- Atlanta Falcons: 2%, 1%
- Minnesota Vikings: 1%, 0%
- Arizona Cardinals: 0%, 0%
- Washington Commanders: 0%, 0%
- New Orleans Saints: 0%, 0%
- New York Giants: 0%, 0% – already mathematically eliminated
So what does all this data mean? First of all, pay attention to the numbers from the NFC South. Basically, there’s about a 3 to 5 percent chance that the NFC South gets a second spot in the playoffs. Otherwise, the Buccaneers and Panthers, whichever wins the South, will just get one spot in the postseason.
That’s important because the NFC South basically does not influence the wildcard seeding. Excluding the South, there are no teams between the Chicago Bears (62%, 54%) and the Dallas Cowboys (10%, 13%) in the playoff race. The gap between these two teams is the most pronounced split in the league right now.
Unless the Cowboys go on a tear to end the year, a door that is now open after Dallas was able to upset the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, it should be an eight-man race for seven playoff spots in the NFC. The Los Angeles Rams and Eagles have already basically punched their tickets for the postseason.
That leaves the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears fighting for the four available non-NFC South spots left in the playoff race. All of these teams are between 8-3 and 7-4 from a record standpoint, so just not finishing last in this game of musical chairs is all that’s relevant for the next six weeks.
You can consume all the data you want over the next month and a half, but what the NFC race really boils down to is not having the worst record among that group over the next six games.
Speaking of data, the Packers’ playoff leverage will be swung a lot by their upcoming game against the Lions. According to the New York Times simulation, Green Bay’s playoff percentage will jump up to 91 percent with a win over Detroit (from 77 percent). With a loss, the Packers would drop down to 68 percent.
The simulator also makes the case for Green Bay fans rooting for the Carolina Panthers tonight on Monday Night Football, as a Panthers win would bump the Packers up to 80 percent (a 3 percent increase), while a 49ers win would drop the team to 75 percent (a 2 percent decrease). These percentage bumps scale with a potential Green Bay win or loss on Thanksgiving.
In Week 13, besides a Packers win, here are the most impactful games from a Green Bay playoff leverage standpoint:
- Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears (Eagles win = 7 percent)
- Cleveland Browns vs. San Francisco 49ers (Browns win = 5 percent)
- Minnesota Vikings vs. Seattle Seahawks (Vikings win = 2 percent)
All other games only make Green Bay’s playoff leverage move a single percentage point or less. Depending on this week’s action, the Packers’ playoff outlook could be anywhere from 95 percent to 55 percent. It’s going to be a huge week, one way or another, for Green Bay.
