With their 8-5 win over the Athletics on Sunday afternoon, the Orioles improved to just one game under .500 for the first time since April 30. The four months in between have included a tumble down the standings, a roster sell-off, and now a renaissance on the field. It remains to be seen whether the Orioles can come all the way back, earn themselves a winning record, and eventually a spot in the playoffs. But regardless, their recent form has at least given us a glimpse of what they were supposed
to be all summer long.
Back at the end of June, the Orioles were 39-48, fives games back of the final wild card spot in the American League. They needed to leapfrog five teams in order to get back into a playoff position.
Since then, the team is 29-21, outscoring opponents by 20 runs in total, and closing the gap in the wild card race to just one game. Nine of the 25 games left on their schedule will come against the Guardians and Blue Jays, the two teams closest to them in the standings, placing the Orioles firmly in control of their own fate. That alone is a surprising accomplishment given where they once sat in the junior circuit hierarchy.
Just about every aspect of this Orioles team has turned around in the last two months, starting with the lineup.
The team’s 104 wRC+ in that time is sixth in MLB, which has been helped by the 68 home runs (sixth in MLB) they have hit. Pete Alonso has been one of the sport’s best hitters, leading the team with a 168 wRC+ and 13 home runs. Coby Mayo may have turned the corner, boasting a 147 wRC+ with nine home runs. And Christian Encarnacion-Strand has been a lifesaver with his 122 wRC+ and seven homers. Slight improvements from Gunnar Henderson (103 wRC+) and Colton Cowser (101 wRC+) have also helped, as has Craig Albernaz’s openness to switching up his lineup with more regularity in recent weeks. The offense is more dynamic, less predictable, and generally more productive.
Looking at August alone, some of the individual performances have been even more impressive. Alonso (193 wRC+), Cowser (148 wRC+), Mayo (143 wRC+), and Henderson (140 wRC+) have been on fire, as has Dylan Beavers (128 wRC+). But the overall offense has been slightly worse (101 wRC+) due to dips in form from Encarnacion-Strand and Jackson Holliday, among others.
The 2026 Orioles were built with an expectation that the offense would carry the load most days. That has not come to fruition, not even with their improved recent play. But, if Alonso and Henderson continue to play up to their expected level, Mayo, Cowser, and Encarnacion-Strand can be quality depth, and the likes of Holliday, Beavers, Samuel Basallo, and Blaze Alexander can rediscover some of their earlier form, then this is going to be a lineup that is tough to beat the next four weeks.
Meanwhile, the pitching staff is also rounding into form, both in the rotation and the bullpen.
Since the start of July, Orioles starting pitchers are 12th in MLB in fWAR (4.3), 18th in ERA (4.18), 13th in FIP (3.97), and ninth in xFIP (3.84). Those numbers are not incredible, but they are competent. That’s exactly what a wild card hopeful needs down the stretch.
More crucially, if the Orioles are going to be a playoff team, is that they have three or four starting arms that you feel comfortable turning to for at least five innings a pop. That seems to be the case right now. Shane Baz (2.60 FIP since July 1), Trevor Rogers (3.36 FIP), and Kyle Bradish (3.92 FIP) each have Cy Young upside that they have flashed on occasion. Not to be forgotten, Brandon Young (3.72 ERA since July 1) consistently turns in solid outings, and is tied for the team lead in wins.
There are certainly better rotations out there, including some of the teams that the Orioles will be battling for a playoff spot down the stretch. But this team’s depth in the starting staff is enviable and puts them in position to be a tough out should they get to the playoffs.
What could act as a multiplier for the rotation is their support staff in the bullpen. Somehow, the Orioles have built out one of the hottest relief groups in baseball. Since the start of July, they rank in the top four of MLB in ERA (3.10), xERA (3.13), and FIP (3.50). The key to their success has been keeping the ball in the park. Their 0.59 home run per nine inning rate is the best in MLB since July 1.
It’s an unconventional group. With both Ryan Helsley and Félix Bautista on the mend, as well as the trading away of Tyler Wells in the beginning of August, the Orioles lack an obvious closer. Andrew Kittredge has stepped into the role most often, but Cam Sanders, Rico Garcia, Yennier Cano, Grant Wolfram, and Alex Hoppe each have at least one save in recent weeks.
A club that can throw so many different arms at you in late innings can be a tough one to match up against. Opposing teams can’t be sure of which reliever they will get in a given scenario. Albernaz has committed to riding the hot hand and finding favorable matchups. Lately that has meant an outsized role for someone like Hoppe or the recently-recalled Anthony Nunez, but nothing is written in stone.
The potential returns of Helsley and Bautista add another wrinkle. Should they be deemed ready, it won’t necessarily feel right for the Orioles to anoint either one as the unquestioned ninth inning arm. But being able to turn to two proven, veteran closers late in games isn’t something that many other bullpens have the option of doing.
The Orioles still have a lot of work to do. They have dug themselves quite a hole, and there is no guarantee that they will successfully dig all the way out it. But their turnaround is not confined to this recent 7-2 stretch that has seen them win series against the Rays, Cardinals, and now Athletics. It goes back two months, seen them survive a disappointing trade deadline, and come out on the other side with a little more swagger and the chance to right all of the wrongs they have dealt with throughout the regular season. You can’t ask for much more from a season that, at one point, seemed like it was headed off a cliff. Instead, these Orioles will be playing meaningful baseball deep into September at least.
