NFL predictions: 4 keys to a Lions victory over the Patriots in Week 10

Nov 12, 2026; Munich, Germany; The jerseys of Detroit Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson (97) and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) and New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) at the Galeria Munchen Marienplatz. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connec

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What is the story about?

The Detroit Lions (6-2) and New England Patriots (5-4) will face off in a Week 10 interconference battle in Munich, Germany.

“We understand the challenge here,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said of the Patriots. “It’s a very good team. It’s a competitive team. They’re going to clean up a lot of things, and we’ve got to be ready to go.”

This week’s prediction preview is sponsored by the folks at FanDuel Sportsbook, who currently have the Lions listed at +1600 to win this year’s Super Bowl and are currently 2.5-point

favorites in Week 10. Let’s take a closer look at this matchup and predict how the Lions will earn a victory over the Patriots in this week’s Honolulu Blueprint.

Patriots base scheme

For a detailed look at the opposing scheme, check out our complementary breakdown piece: Lions Week 10 preview: Breaking down the Patriots’ offensive and defensive schemes.

Prediction 1: Gibbs attacks the EDGE in the run game

The Lions and Patriots both have old-school coaches who are both direct or indirect descendants of the Bill Parcells coaching tree. And as you might expect, like Parcells, both coaches prioritize controlling the trenches by establishing the run on offense and stopping the run on defense.

By the numbers, the Patriots’ run defense looks strong. They’re 10th in DVOA run defense, ninth in rush yards allowed per game (96.7) and per play (3.9), fifth in EPA per rush (-0.12), and third in yards before contact (0.57). Their success ties to a strong interior defensive line that can stuff the run in two- and three-down sets, featuring Milton Williams, Christian Barramore, and former Lion Corey Durden. It’s tough to find room up the gut.

Complicating things even further is how the Patriots deploy the blitz. Entering this game, the Patriots blitz 40.1% of the time (6th most in the NFL), and most of those blitzes come from their linebackers and come straight down the pipe—stressing the A and B gaps.

However, teams run outside on Patriots 53.8% of the time (10th highest rate) because their EDGE players are more skilled as pass rushers and can be overwhelmed in the run game. Their vulnerability shows up most in explosive plays. Currently, the Patriots allow an explosive run on 10.9% of rushing attempts (20th), have allowed 22 rushes over 10 yards this season, and average 3.31 yards allowed after contact (24th).

When we flip to the Lions’ rushing attack, we can see how they match up with the Patriots’ weaknesses. The Lions run the ball on the edges 55.7% of the time (7th), lead the NFL in explosive run plays (16.5% of the time), have 33 rushes of 10+ yards (3rd), and average 3.15 yards after contact (10th).

If the Patriots blitz and the Lions attack the edge, Jahmyr Gibbs will have a chance to eat.

Prediction 2: Goff finds success with quick hitters and deep shots

The Patriots’ defensive line is built to stop the run up the middle, create pressure off the edge and with blitzing linebackers, then deploy their secondary in nickel sets 77.7% of the time (2nd most in the NFL) and run man coverage out of it 36% of the time (2nd).

While chunk yards on the ground will certainly soften the Patriots’ defense, Lions quarterback Jared Goff will likely be the key to winning this game because he matches up so well with their coverage scheme. This season, Goff has an EPA of 40.57 vs. nickel defenses (2nd highest in the NFL), a per-play EPA of 0.23 vs. nickel (4th), and a per-play EPA of 0.36 vs. man coverage (3rd).

What makes it worse for the Patriots is that their coverage has been exposed in recent weeks, especially by NFC North teams. Last week against the Packers, the Patriots surrendered 372 passing yards to Jordan Love, and 308 to Bears QB Caleb Williams two weeks prior. Those struggles have shown up in their EPA numbers, too. On the season, the Patriots allow a per-pass play EPA of 0.07 (26th), but over the past four weeks, that number has plummeted to 0.35 (31st)

Goff’s key will be efficiency with short routes and a willingness to test them deep. When the Patriots are in off coverage, use the space against them. When they blitz, having quick-hitter answers in the vacated space behind them will lead to yards after catch (YAC). Then, when success comes underneath with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, test them with deep shots to Jameson Williams.

Prediction 3: Lions focus on stopping the run; contain Maye

As mentioned earlier, the Patriots want to control the game on the ground, but their results haven’t matched their dedication. The Patriots run the ball on 46% of offensive plays (10th most) and gain 119.9 yards per game (10th), but their per-play efficiency is more middle-of-the-road.

As a team, they average 4.2 yards per rush (14th), but only Drake Maye and RB3 Corey Kiner average above 4.0 yards per carry; RB1 Rhamondre Stevenson and RB2 TreVeyon Henderson average 3.9 yards per carry. We see similar results in EPA and success rate. The team’s EPA per run is -0.02 (11th), while Stevenson (-0.06) and Henderson (-0.28) fall below the average. The team’s rushing success rate is 41.8% (14th), while Stevenson is close at 40.2, but Henderson is well below at 34.6%.

The high volume of run plays can make a middle-of-the-road rushing attack look better than it is, but the real catalyst skewing the numbers is quarterback Drake Maye’s mobility. Maye has carried the ball 47 times through nine games, averages 4.7 yards per carry, has a per-play rushing EPA of +0.40, and a 51.1% success rate.

Aside from a poor first quarter against Bills QB Josh Allen in Week 2 (when he gained 40 of his 69 rushing yards that day), the Lions defense has done a good job handling mobile quarterbacks this season. Vikings Kyler Murray gained 35 yards in Week 8, but no other quarterback has rushed for 20 yards against the Lions defense: Jacoby Brissett had 19 yards, Geno Smith 12, Tyler Shough 8, Malik Willis 7, and Bryce Young had just 3 rushing yards.

Defenses have deployed a spy on Maye situationally, and I expect the Lions to do the same in this game.

Prediction 4: McNeill pressures the middle of the OL

The Patriots offensive line has dealt with several injuries this season, and they’ve struggled to keep pressure at bay. Entering this game, they’ve allowed 141 pressures (28th) and a 42.9% pressure rate (31st). Maye has done a nice job handling the extra pressure for the most part, only taking 20 sacks (17th) with a 6.6% sack rate (18th), but it has led to him making some poor choices with the football; he is currently tied for the most interceptions in the NFL with 11.

So where are the weaknesses in the line? Right up the middle.

New England lost both starting guards—Alijah Vera-Tucker and Mike Onwenu—to injured reserve. Backup Greg Van Roten was injured in the one game he started, landed on injured reserve, and has only recently opened his injury evaluation window. Backup center Ben Brown was then called up to shift to guard, but he’s been dealing with an injury and has been ruled out. Finally, Walter Rouse has been supplementing/rotating with Brown at left guard, but he is currently in concussion protocol.

Heading into this game, Matt Pryor has started at right guard the last three games and is expected to maintain that role, but left guard is still up in the air. The Patriots likely need Rouse to clear concussion protocol or Van Roten to be activated from injured reserve and step into a starting role.

Regardless of where they land at left guard, they’ll have the unenviable task of trying to block Alim McNeill.

McNeill has been a monster this season, as teams have had to deal with the totality of the Lions defensive line. Most teams have focused heavily on Aidan Hutchinson, but the developmental progression of Tyleik Williams, a wonderful rookie season for Skyler Gill-Howard, the steady veteran presence of DJ Wonnum, and the recent emergence of rookie Derrick Moore have allowed McNeill to flourish even more.

Through eight games, according to the Lions PR, McNeill is:

1st in games with 0.5 sacks (6)
1st in QB hurries (24)
2nd in total pressures generated (34)
2nd in sacks (5.5)
t-4th in QB hits (10)

McNeill taking advantage of the reserve guards could be a huge factor in this game. If the Lions rush four and drop seven, and the Patriots need to keep players in for Hutchinson and McNeill, Maye will have fewer targets and a muddied back-seven to sort through.