In general I think the A’s should stay away from the free agent market, the shopping venue where you can pay far too much for past performance and get into a bidding war with teams who have more appeal
to players with multiple suitors.
On cue last winter the A’s spent $77M on two pitchers, one of whom, Luis Severino, was overpaid to lure him to Sacramento and the other of whom, Jose LeClerc, was paid $10M to pitch poorly for a month before succumbing to a shoulder injury.
That said, of MLBTR’s top 50 FAs when you look at their predictions for what each player might get a few interesting possibilities stand out. Perhaps the A’s would have to top a predicted market, as they did with Severino, but sometimes that can be done by adding years instead of AAV and the A’s are an appealing team right now on the field with their electric core even if they can’t offer the best ballpark/crowd situation.
It’s also essential to note that sometimes MLBTR’s projections are spot on and sometimes they are way way off in either direction. So what we are working with today is not necessarily any player’s true market, just the projections offered by one prominent and relatively reputable group.
Here are a few names that pop out at me as being intriguing targets if the market is as MLBTR guesses:
Zac Gallen (4 years, $80M)
Gallen established himself as a legitimate front of the rotation SP in 2022 (12-4, 2.54 ERA, 4.2 WAR) and 2023 (17-9, 3.47 ERA, 5.2 WAR) and has continued to be durable making 28 starts in 2024 and 33 starts in 2025.
MLBTR suggests his value might be depressed by a poor 2025 season (13-15, 4.83 ERA, 1.1 WAR) so suitors will be betting on a “bounce back” season or 4 from Gallen.
However there are indicators that a bounce back is in the cards. Gallen maintained his fastball velocity (93.5 MPH last season, 93.6 MPH career), he was healthy enough to make 33 starts, and his second half was much stronger than his first half: a 3.97 ERA in which opponents batted just .216/.269/.380 against him.
Now he was also HR prone (31), which isn’t the best fit with Sacramento’s launching paddy ways, but a Gallen who returns to form is the “#2 SP” type the A’s are seeking and $20M/year is a downright bargain for that kind of pitcher. It’s a low enough AAV that the A’s could gamble on him and lose and be better off than they are if Severino continues to disappoint and stays the length of his deal.
As longer term gambles go a 4 year deal for Gallen, who turned 30 in August, seems like a solid one at $20 AAV. If the A’s offered this to Gallen I would not mind at all.
Blogfather Prediction: I suspect MLBTR’s projection is low. Almost every team is looking for starting pitching and that includes several teams for whom exceeding 4/$80M is no big deal. I don’t think the A’s will pass on Gallen at 4/$80M but I do think he’ll get more like 5/$110M when the dust clears and it won’t be from the A’s.
Jorge Polanco (3 years, $42M)
Polanco, 32, had a terrific year with the Mariners, batting .265/.326/.495 and fielding the closest to average (-2 OAA) of any season since 2021. Of course it helped that he only accrued 287.1 innings there, serving as DH for a lot of the year.
Still, Polanco is a career 112 wRC+ hitter and a switch hitter (116 wRC+ career batting LH and 100 wRC+ batting RH). Given the relatively affordable deal MLBTR projects, would Polanco offer the A’s a much needed solution at 2B to accompany Jacob Wilson and Leo De Vries on the left side of the infield and perhaps Max Muncy in a super utility role? Polanco could also slide into a DH role down the road if his defense declines again into his mid-30s and Brent Rooker is traded.
Blogfather Prediction: I think MLBTR’s projection is reasonable, but I think ultimately the A’s won’t want to commit to Polanco as their 2Bman for 3 years when DH is already taken. He’s a good (not great) hitter but just not a very good defender and injuries have kept him off the field lately. So maybe too many red flags even though that deal probably makes the A’s better in 2026.
Tyler Rogers (2 years, $18M)
As noted in the writeup, relievers who don’t throw smoke are often underpaid in free agency even if their performance dictates they should garner more interest. Phil Maton is cited as another example.
If Rogers’ market truly is 2/$18M I hope the A’s rush over to his house with a contract because to me that’s a steal. Tyler Rogers is really good and even though he turns 35 next month he is likely to age well given his style and repertoire.
This is a guy with a career 2.76 ERA with a 1.63 BB/9 IP rate, who is only getting better (1.98 ERA in 2025 with an 0.81 BB/9 IP rate). His fastball averages 83 MPH, his career K rate is 6.50/9 IP…and he’s just really good.
Rogers is kind of my holy grail for a free agent I think the A’s should actually “overpay” and they will still get more than fair value. I would offer Rogers 3 years without batting an eye and if it takes 3/$27M to lure him I think for $9M AAV you have a worthy set-up man who is reliable and durable for the next 3 seasons.
Blogfather Prediction: The A’s do have a history of signing free agent relievers, sometimes to one year deals (LeClerc) and sometimes to 3 year deals (Ryan Madson). I think the A’s will take a real shot at Rogers and if they offer an extra year compared to other suitors, maybe they can land him.
The A’s should also go after Phil Maton, who doesn’t even crack the top 50 list. Maton was terrific in 2025, posting a 2.79 ERA with 81 K in 61.1 IP and posting 1.5 WAR, which is a lot for a reliever. He was paid $2M. And his success wasn’t fluky in that Maton has a career 10.27 K/9IP rate with ERAs under 4.00 four years running now.
Offer Maton, 32, a 2-3 year deal for several million a year and you will probably be making the best offer by far. And you will have a bargain.
Chris Bassitt (2 years/$38M)
Bassitt distinguished himself in the post-season but not as a SP. He came out of the bullpen following a lower back injury and was an integral part of the Blue Jays’ success in the ALCS and World Series.
Bassitt showed he might be a plus reliever, maybe even a multi-inning “7th-8th inning” guy, if used out of the bullpen but undoubtedly he wants to continue starting and will want to sign with a team prepared to put him back in the rotation.
Bassitt doesn’t quite qualify as the “front of the rotation” arm the A’s are ideally seeking, but he could lay claim to a team’s #3 spot. With his seemingly endless assortment of pitches Bassitt is still effective as well as remarkably consistent. His WAR totals going back each of the last 5 seasons: 2.4, 2.3, 2.6, 2.8, 3.3.
The question is, how much should a smaller market team like the A’s pay for what appear to be “2.5 WAR or so” seasons? The only way the A’s lure Bassitt for a green and gold reunion is probably to offer an extra year over his best suitor.
If no one is willing to risk more than a 2 year commitment, the A’s could swoop in and offer 3 years. Would something like a 3/$45M offer beat the competition and inspire Bassitt to be a good dog and sign with the A’s? It’s possible, though he’s likely to have quite a few suitors especially following his post-season heroics.
Blogfather Prediction: I think some team(s) will offer Bassitt a 3 year deal, forcing the A’s to give a 4-year deal if they want to offer “more years”. Bassitt will be 37 when spring training begins and I doubt the A’s will entertain a 4-year offer.
There are some thoughts on which to ruminate and discuss. And there are plenty of other free agents you can bring into the conversation. Should be, as always, an interesting off-season…
