I’ll admit, it feels bizarre to be compelled to write this about Josh Allen in Year 9, especially after a 36-point eruption against that Houston Texans defense in the Buffalo Bills’ Week 1 win.
Allen is not an overly reckless, YOLO, sugar-high quarterback bound to put the ball in precarious situations in critical moments of every game.
But is he ultra conservative? Ab-so-lutely not.
I’m letting recency bias get the best of me here, because on Sunday, Allen certainly did make a poor throw the play before
he ripped one of the best throws of his career to date to Josh Palmer on the eventual game-winning touchdown.
And for as much praise as he’s rightfully received for the 34-yard touchdown — which was a 45 air-yard strike without room to step into the throw — the specific criticism for the jump ball the play before was out of control.
Allen saw single coverage on Palmer with a chance for a go-ahead touchdown. The decision wasn’t brutal. The pass was simply underthrown and too far to the inside. Allen would undoubtedly admit that himself. The bad throw deserved to be shown. Without question.
But to suggest “this is what you get from Allen every week,” is flat-out incorrect.
My gameday column before Week 1 focused on first impressions, and how powerful they can be.
And even after an MVP and an incredibly long stay in the NFL’s elite realm of quarterbacks, Allen still can’t shake the first impressions he made in this league.
As a rookie, Allen’s 5.1% turnover-worthy play rate (a self-explanatory advanced metric) was the third-highest out of 39 qualifiers. Bad. And the first impression was made. The next season, when he did show clear signs of improvement, Allen’s 4.3% TWP rate was the ninth-highest out of 39 qualifying quarterbacks. That sophomore NFL season cemented the first impression in the minds of many.
Heck, I remember going on radio shows after Buffalo’s Week 1 loss to the Jets to begin the 2023 season — in which Allen threw three interceptions and had a fumble — and having to ward off suggestions that he might be Jameis Winston.
Check the following chart, and tell me if it reads like a super-careless quarterback.
*lower rank is better
Allen was the YOLO, sugar-high quarterback in his first two seasons. Since then, hardly. And he’s gradually improved how well he protects the football in each of the last four seasons. Four seasons is an eternity in the NFL! But it’s like many haven’t caught on to said vital advancement in Allen’s game.
Maybe it’s because of the 18-interception 2023 campaign? Probably. Allen threw the second-most picks that year, but as you can see above, his Turnover-Worthy Play Rate ranked smack dab in the middle of all quarterbacks.
Despite this clearly being a persuasive piece, it’s alright with me if you want to ignore the numbers because of your inherent faith in the old-fashion eyeball test.
Because even if in your mind Allen is still a reckless, YOLO, sugar-high quarterback who puts the ball in danger every game in key moments, it is precisely what makes him such a daunting matchup for any defense.
And, sure, you’ve heard about that dynamic before, but it’s probably not explored deeply enough.
Here are Allen’s Big-Time Throw Rates — a metric that counts the most challenging, high-degree of difficulty throws, typically further downfield / through tight windows — and rank among quarterbacks with 200+ attempts since the beginning of 2020.
Ridiculous, right?
As you can probably imagine, Allen is the only quarterback in the NFL to finish in the Top 10 of that metric in each of the last six seasons. And it speaks directly to Allen squeezing everything humanly possible out of his offensive scheme and skill-position talent. He’s often had to make those challenging throws because the easy, wide-open tosses haven’t been available to him as frequently as the other top quarterbacks in football.
Allen operating as the most full-throttle, all-gas, no-brakes quarterback in the NFL is the best possible scenario for the Bills offense and the worst possible scenario for each defense it faces.
Allen’s bad plays may — see: probably — look different than other quarterbacks. Does that really matter? All interceptions and turnovers count the same. In golf, if you hit the ball one foot out of bounds or 20 yards out of bounds, you’re still taking the same penalty. I get it though — the ball that sails way right has more of a visceral impact on our brains. It’s a cognitive bias we naturally suffer from. The distinction between the psychological influence and real-life result of those occurrences needs to be acknowledged.
And with any quarterback, I’d much rather chances being taken at a ferocious clip than essentially never looking for the big play, routinely erring on the side of caution. The timid, risk-averse quarterbacks are available in the undrafted ranks every April. And, heck, there are many passers who have the desire to play aggressively but lack the physical talent to match.
Without being in defensive game plan meetings, I’m going to venture a guess that Allen’s willingness and ability to make big-time throws stresses a defense significantly more than his occasional tendency to give the ball away.
There’s just no way a defensive coordinator fires up the film before playing the Bills and is giddy about his unit’s chances to force an Allen turnover. He’s almost assuredly far more unsettled about what Allen is capable of doing to his defense with his arm… and that’s before you factor in any of the quarterback’s legendary running talent.
How do I stick the landing on this column?
Maybe just with my take that Allen is absolutely not a reckless quarterback.
In fact, he’s long been a player who understands, is comfortable with, and confident in his seismic talent, which has made him the best player in the NFL, in my opinion.
