The New Orleans Saints will return from their bye week to face the rival Atlanta Falcons at Caesars Superdome in Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season. To break it down, Saivion Mixson of The Falcoholic joins
us to preview Sunday afternoon’s matchup.
NJ: With Michael Penix Jr. expected to miss the rest of the season with a knee injury, how much of a hit do you expect the offense to take with Kirk Cousins as the starter?
SM: As much as I would love to say the Falcons won’t be that much worse on offense, especially given the up-and-down nature with Penix at the helm, it’s probably going to be a substantial hit. In Kirk’s lone start against the Miami Dolphins in week 7, with a defense that came into the week dead last in EPA per dropback, Cousins went 21-of-31 for 173 yards with 102 of those yards coming after the Dolphins went up 24-3 late in the third quarter when the game felt more than out of reach. This isn’t the same Cousins the Falcons saw before his Achilles injury in 2023; his arm doesn’t have enough juice to attack the outer parts of the field consistently, and I could see the Saints dare him to make some tight window throws, especially without the safety net that is Drake London (out with a PCL sprain).
NJ: What has been Atlanta’s biggest weakness during this five-game losing streak?
SM: The most frustrating part about this question is that there is no one thing. Through the losing streak, Atlanta has done enough to win ball games, and against some good competition. But the most glaring weakness has to be the lack of consistency on the offensive side of the ball. Since the start of the losing streak, the Falcons have punted on 23 of their drives, which is third-worst in that span behind only the Houston Texans and Denver Broncos (who are somehow 5-0 in that span) and dead last in 3rd-down conversion percentage (23.5%). The offense doesn’t have a real identity. There’s nothing they can reliably lean on in key moments, and that shows up whenever they need to keep the drive alive.
NJ: Which positional matchup do you think will be the most critical in determining the winner of Sunday’s game?
SM: The most critical matchup of the game may also be the game’s most exciting. Saints have done well at keeping pressure off the quarterback, allowing only 23 sacks (14th-best), 18 QB hits (4th-best), and an 18.4% pressure rate (12th-best), according to Stathead.com. The Falcons have been able to disrupt some of the league’s better quarterbacks, including Drake Maye, Josh Allen, and Daniel Jones, with their pass rush. What will be the Saints’ plan against Atlanta’s newfound pass rush will go a long way in deciding how effective Tyler Shough and this Saints offense will be.
NJ: Who is one under-the-radar Falcons player that has stood out and might be a difference-maker against the Saints?
SM: A player that Saints fans may not know too well, but may be very cognizant of on Sunday, is Divine Deablo. Deablo has been out for the entirety of this losing streak, and the Falcons’ defense, while still showing flashes, lost some of its teeth because of it. With Deablo in the lineup, the Falcons’ defense was 5th in EPA/play due to Deablo’s ability to cover and rush the passer from the inside linebacker spot. His interchangeability with fellow inside linebacker Kaden Elliss gave the Falcons’ defense a wrinkle it has been sorely lacking with his departure.
NJ: According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Saints (-134) are currently 1.5-point favorites over the Falcons (+114) in Sunday’s matchup; what is your final score prediction?
SM: If there were ever a week to pick the Saints over the Falcons, it feels like this one… But I can’t bring myself to do it. I’ll take Atlanta in a game that probably won’t be pretty from start to finish: Falcons 20, Saints 19.
Thank you again to Saivion Mixson for joining us to preview this week’s matchup! You can check out the rest of his work here.
