The last time the Orioles were in need of a closer in free agency before this past offseason, they signed Craig Kimbrel, who was once quite good but had his most recent season before that end in a memorable disaster. It didn’t work out. Needing a closer heading into 2026, the Orioles signed Ryan Helsley, who was once quite good but had his most recent season end in a memorable disaster. Maybe it’ll go better this time around.
One thing working in Helsley’s favor is that he’s not as old as Kimbrel
was. This is his age 31 season and up to this point he’s maintained a fastball in the 99mph range. The Orioles signed him for $14 million this year and the same amount next year, although if he’s good, he can opt out of the contract. This kind of contract structure didn’t pay off for the Orioles when they signed Tyler O’Neill before last season. Maybe it’ll go better this time around.
Here’s what two of the big projection systems see on average from Helsley this season:
- ZiPS: 64 IP, 3.28 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 3.4 K/BB, 26 saves
- PECOTA: 55.1 IP, 3.56 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 2.8 K/BB, 34 saves
Neither system expects a return to the elite results Helsley was getting in the 2022-24 range. That’s not too surprising. Although a lot of attention is paid to his repeated meltdown games after being traded to the Mets, Helsley wasn’t that same elite guy prior to being traded by the Cardinals either. He had an ERA of exactly 3, with batters hitting him better than they’d ever done before.
If Helsley is around the above projected results, he’ll get some clutch saves where you were sure the Orioles were going to lose, and he’ll have some blown saves that make you wish Mike Elias signed someone better. With the chaos in the bullpen behind him, the Orioles could sure use some ninth inning stability.
What are you expecting from Helsley this year? Do you think he’ll still be around for 2027?
