In an otherwise dominant showing against Illinois last Friday, the only damper on the mood was L.J. Cason’s season-ending injury. A spark plug off the bench, Cason was the primary scorer of the second unit and was arguably Michigan’s best player in transition. Without him, it’s widely agreed that Michigan’s ceiling is still winning the National Championship. But has the floor for this team lowered at all?
Let’s start by examining the ceiling and floor of this team pre-Cason injury. The ceiling was
obviously the National Championship. Michigan is ranked second nationally on KenPom, second in the NET rankings and third in the AP Poll. The Wolverines passed every metric with flying colors and were one of the prohibitive favorites to win a championship.
The floor for Michigan pre-Cason is a little trickier to gauge. The Wolverines had very few weaknesses. You could safely say Michigan was good at rebounding, but certainly not elite. Similarly, the team shot just 36 percent from three, which is good but not great. With the size and length of Michigan’s front court, it was nearly impossible to envision an upset in the Round of 64 or even in the Round of 32.
As the seed lines have started to take shape and the bracket comes clearer into picture, the teams on the 4- and 5-seed lines seemed increasingly unlikely to be able to beat a fully healthy team like Michigan. The likes of Kansas, Alabama and Vanderbilt have been scuffling of late, and Michigan would likely have been a double-digit favorite on a neutral site against any of these teams.
With all that in mind, my personal opinion is the Elite Eight was likely the floor for the Wolverines before Cason’s injury.
Now let’s shift our focus to what Michigan looks like without Cason. Elliot Cadeau has instantly become the most important player on the team, and Yaxel Lendeborg will need to pick up a larger portion of the scoring burden. Additionally, Nimari Burnett and Roddy Gayle Jr. will need to handle the ball more than they ever have before. The strength of the starting lineup still easily makes this team a title contender.
However, the floor may be lower now than it was before the Cason injury. In the past, we’ve seen Dusty May not hesitate to pull Cadeau out of the game when the turnover bug bites. Without Cason, May will be forced to ride with Cadeau for longer periods of time. Additionally, Michigan is not an elite three-point shooting team. Without Cason, the Wolverines are missing their best three-point shooter (40.2 percent).
Anything can happen during March Madness. Prior to the Cason injury, a Michigan upset by a team below the 4- or 5-seed line seemed highly, highly unlikely. While it still may not be likely, a world exists where Michigan is not shooting the ball well, Cadeau coughs up some turnovers and foul trouble eats at the Wolverine’s depth. An eight-man rotation is significantly more vulnerable to variance than a nine-man rotation.
Could the Wolverines lose in the Sweet Sixteen? Possibly. Could they even lose in the Round of 32? Don’t count anything out. This is March after all.
What do you think the floor is for Michigan post-Cason injury? We know this team can still win a championship, but what’s the earliest in the tournament you could see this team losing in? Let us know your thoughts down in the comments section below.
