The Miami Hurricanes (3-0) will host the Central Michigan Chippewas (2-1) on Saturday, September 26th at 6:30pm on CW. This is Miami’s first Saturday game of the season.
Miami has a 99% win expectancy per ESPN, and the ‘Canes are ~42 point favorites over the Chips.
The Doppler
Per Bill Connelly’s SP+, the ‘Canes are 7th overall in FBS. Miami’s offense is 9th, defense is 7th, and kicking is 41st. The CMU Chips are 117th overall. The offense is 129th, defense is 91st and kicking game is 99th. Miami has now faced
the 101st, 280th, 63rd and 117th ranked teams per SP+.
The Miami offense is 15th in FBS with a 54% 3rd down conversion rate. The Chips are 116th at 29% on 3rd down. The ‘Canes have yet to attempt to convert on 4th down, while CMU is 26th in FBS while converting 83% of the time. They’re really big on 4th down attempts and Miami has to be prepared for a 4-down offense on Sat. night.
On defense, Miami is 38th in FBS while allowing on 33% of opponent 3rd down conversions. CMU is 111th as they’re allowing 50% of opponent drives to be extended on 3rd down.
Miami is 87th in FBS in turnover margin per game with -0.5 turnovers while the Chips are 57th at a flat 0.0.
The Hurricanes are 88th in FBS with 62.5 penalty yards per game while CMU is 87th with 62 PYPG. Expect a slow game when it comes to ref stoppages if these averages hold up.
Miami is currently 19th in PPG (remember, this is FBS only) with 39 PPG. The Chippewas are 117th in scoring offense with only 15.5 PPG. The CMU defense is 53rd in FBS allowing 24 PPG while The U is 16th while allowing only 13 PPG.
The Film
We’re going to use the CMU vs. Wyoming game from Week Three as the film of choice. The Chips won 24-10 after a 17 point first half. CMU was 8-of-16 on money downs including a perfect 3-of-3 on 4th. Wyoming finished 7-of-15 on money downs.
Wyoming turned the ball over twice giving CMU a 2:0 advantage in turnover margin, and both teams were flagged for 40 yards in penalties.
The Chips kicker was perfect on FG’s (1-of-1) and PAT’s, they dropped two punts inside of the 20, and nothing crazy stood out on specials.
THE CMU OFFENSE
QB Angel Flores is much more of a runner than a thrower. Flores averaged only 4.6 yards per pass attempt against Wyoming. He found only four different receivers and one had double-digit yards per catch marks.
On the ground it’s another story. Flores averaged 5.8 yards per carry with two TD’s. The backs averaged 6.8, 3.7, and 20.5 yards per carry. Brock Townsend hit on a 38 yard TD run for one of CMU’s scores.
The CMU O-Line didn’t allow a sack and only allowed two TFL’s on the day.
Above– The play-action fake boot with the TE running a slide is ran by every team and it works so often it should always be ran by every team. It’s a sure fire 4-5 yards at its worst and CMU hits the TE for about 5 here. Miami LB and S were YARDS away from WF receivers on the same concept.
Above– I don’t know if it’s in CMU’s best interest to grind Flores into dust vs. Miami’s front seven. Will they be more focused on wining the MAC or on upsetting Miami? Flores running plays as a singlewing Q could get him banged up vs. Miami.
Above– Miami’s tackling has to be improved. They really slipped down in the 4th quarter against Wake as the offense sputtered and the defense was back on the field quickly.
Above– Power read is a great concept and it’s worked against Miami for years. The QB is reading the EMOL. If he freezes or goes outside with the RB the QB pulls and follows the pulling guard. If the EMOL squeezes inside it’s a give and the RB takes it outside behind the lead blocking FB.
Above– Power read again. Flores saw the EMOL freeze and felt he could beat him on his own. He pulls and keeps behind the guard for an explosive run.
Above– Zoomed in view of the same play/concept from above.
Above– CMU isn’t afraid to kick out DE’s. They clearly don’t have Miami’s talent but I think the guts will be there unlike FAMU. I would expect very little losers limp vs. the Chips.
Above– Another QB designed run behind the RB. Flores has a HUGE bubble to run to vs Wyoming and scores.
THE CMU DEFENSE
The Chips defense held the Cowboys QB, Tyler Hughes, to only 5.8 yards per pass attempt with two INT’s. Hughes hit six different receivers with two averaging double-digit yards per catch marks. CMU could be the victim of a few deep shot TD’s to Josh Moore and Cooper Barkate.
CMU can be ran on and this will hopefully be an FBS breakout on the ground for Miami. The Chips allowed Hughes to averaged 7.8 yards per carry while the backs hit 4.2 YPC with one TD and 5.8 YPC.
The CMU defense did not register a sack vs. Wyoming and only one TFL with six PBU’s. If the Miami OL doesn’t dominate Central Michigan I have no idea what’s going on in this program.
Above– CMU DB’s are ready to thump. That’s the RB on an option pitch being wrecked by the CB.
Above– What’s open vs. CMU? A quick flash flake PA and sending the slot up the seam. Miami needs to get Barkate more involved. I thought his connection with Mensah would’ve been seen more by now.
Above– Shallow Cross comes open for Wyoming vs. CMU. Miami loves Shallow and that could be a great way to get Upshaw involved with his legit speed.
Above– The Wyoming RB cuts inside after that kick out block and scores. Miami needs to run more split zone for a variety of reasons and one is to clean up any mess SJ Alofaituli and Ryan Rodriguez let slip through.
Above– I don’t think Miami has to worry but that blur is a safety jumping in front of a late and deep Cowboys pass. Mensah seems to have it down that the best option is to check down vs. take dumb risks.
Above– This pick was thrown so poorly it looks like CMU is on offense but I promise you they aren’t. Another throw I don’t worry about for Mensah and the ‘Canes offense.
The Forecast
The Canyonero Keys to Victory main theme from the summer is that “Bully Ball should work just fine” vs. CMU. The three individual keys vs. CMU are:
1- Flores is the focus. Flores leads CMU in passing yards (duh) and rushing yards. He’s the focus. Miami has a team of blue chip players and the ‘Canes should have the hosses to dominate the Chips up front. I’m still waiting for the breakout performance from Justin Scott and Ahmad Moten.
2- Clean up the OL play. CMU doesn’t have a dominating DL and the ‘Canes really need to find a good starting 5 before Clemson on the road. Miami shouldn’t allow a sack, even without Marty Brown there cleaning up the blitzers.
3- Get other WR’s involved. Now is the time to find out who is #2 to Malachi Toney. If he’s out or limited someone needs to step up as more than a screen game guy for Darian Mensah. Lofton and Mueller have an ample chance to be part of the passing game and need to come open more.
Prediction: Miami by 35. CMU might score 6 points in this one unless a Miami CB falls down or something. They aren’t going to sling it and will try to run right into Toure and Smith as well as the front four. Maybe Wilson will earn his check as more than a pass rush specialist this game.
