The Wisconsin Badgers fell to 2-1 after a 38-14 loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide in Week 3. While the Badgers were major underdogs heading into the game, the score didn’t match how poorly Wisconsin played on both sides of the ball.
Offensively, the Badgers were undisciplined, having untimely penalties and turnovers that derailed drives. Defensively, Wisconsin had no answers for the Crimson Tide in the air. They struggled to get any pressure on quarterback Ty Simpson, who had a day, tossing for a career-high
382 yards while completing over 80 percent of his passes.
Wisconsin will need to get on track in a big way in Week 4 when it takes on the Maryland Terrapins to kick off Big Ten play.
While it is only the fourth week of the season, this game is as must-win as it can get for the Badgers, and has an argument to be their most important game of the season. Maryland may be Wisconsin’s best chance at a win all year long, as the Badgers are 9.5-point favorites at home.
Before Week 3, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) projected the Badgers to win 5.6 games in 2025, giving them a 51 percent chance of winning six games and making a bowl game. After Week 3? That figure has drastically dropped. The Badgers are now only projected to have 5.2 wins, and FPI provides Wisconsin with only a 38.5 percent chance to win six games.
According to ESPN, the Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.
Wisconsin fell seven spots in FPI from 38th to 45th. They’re still ahead of their Week 4 opponent, Maryland, which is ranked at No. 60 after its 3-0 start. However, the Terrapins have a more favorable schedule than the Badgers and currently have a 65.5 percent chance to win six games, according to FPI.
If the Badgers win, they’ll improve to 3-1 and would still have a tough path to six games with No. 21 Michigan (road), Iowa, No. 1 Ohio State, No. 6 Oregon (road), Washington, No. 19 Indiana (road), No. 9 Illinois, and Minnesota (road) still on the docket.
But, if they lose, their odds to reach a bowl game would completely plummet, raising major questions about the program.
