Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, December 27 at 5:45 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN
- Location: University Stadium — Albuquerque, NM
- Spread: North Texas (-3.5)
- Over/under: 53.5
- All-time series: San Diego State leads, 6-1
- Last meeting: San Diego State 30, North Texas 12 — September 20, 1975
- Current streak: San Diego State, 1 (1975)
- North Texas last bowl: 2024 First Responder Bowl, 30-28 loss to Texas State
- San Diego State last bowl: 2022 Hawaii Bowl, 25-23 loss to Middle Tennessee
- 2024 New Mexico Bowl matchup: TCU 34, Louisiana 3
Setting the scene
The New Mexico Bowl features a battle of clashing styles, involving two of college football’s most improved teams.
North Texas (11-2, 7-1 American) aims to build on its winningest season of all-time with its high-flying No. 1 ranked scoring offense, while San Diego State (9-3, 6-2 Mountain West) provides its best counter with the nation’s No. 4 ranked scoring defense. The American and Mountain West opponents meet for the first time in 50 years, arriving to New Mexico with a combined 20 victories on the year.
Does offense or defense win championships? Only one style will prevail in the beautiful mountains under the fiery Albuquerque sunset Saturday evening.
North Texas Mean Green outlook
North Texas’ dream season is drawing to a conclusion. The Mean Green set a new program record with 11 wins in 2025, earning a spot in the American Conference Championship and sitting one victory away from the College Football Playoff. However, the success came with a price as head coach Eric Morris left for Oklahoma State. Although Morris’ original intent was to coach the New Mexico Bowl, special teams coordinator and tight ends coach Drew Svoboda will take the reins as the interim, before the 2026 transition to the Neal Brown era.
Transfer portal rumors are attached to some of North Texas’ star players, but the Mean Green are expected to field a full squad in Albuquerque. One of those stars is American Offensive Player of the Year Drew Mestemaker. The quarterback currently leads the FBS in passing at 4,129 yards — a 448-yard lead over second place. Mestemaker already has the North Texas single-season passing yards record, and with 31 touchdown strikes, he’s two away from tying and three away from passing Austin Aune’s 2022 record. The star quarterback has kept things remarkably efficient in this breakout season, finishing 10 of his 13 starts without an interception while connecting on 70.2 percent of attempts.
Another star freshman who defines North Texas’ No. 1 scoring offense (44.8 points per game) and total offense (504 yards per game) is running back Caleb Hawkins. Hawkins leads the FBS with 23 rushing touchdowns, picking up 1,236 rushing yards on a 6.2 average in arguably the most impressive true freshman season in the FBS. However, he exited the American title game with an injury and if not fully recovered, Kiefer Sibley could see reps as the lead back vs. San Diego State.
North Texas moves the ball exceptionally through the ground and air, and the Mean Green feature a slew of talented receivers guiding this aerial attack which picks up 323 passing yards per game. Wyatt Young, who generated an FBS-best 295 yards in a single game this year, ranks atop the unit with 1,209 yards and 10 touchdowns, but Cameron Dorner and Miles Coleman are excellent secondary options combining for 96 catches, while Landon Sides and tight end Tre Williams round out the group. Although Young is the statistical leader, Mestemaker doesn’t force much; rather, he takes what the defense allows, making any North Texas receiver a threat on a given day.
On defense, the Mean Green are 70th in points allowed, but it’s a tremendous upgrade from North Texas teams of years past. Missed tackles were sparse among this unit and takeaways were common, providing the fuel the Mean Green needed to evolve from sub-.500 caliber to a near-CFP team. Only five FBS teams currently boast more takeaways than North Texas’ 25, and they came fairly equally — 13 as interceptions, 12 as fumble recoveries.
Ethan Wesloski and Trey Fields are the top tacklers on this opportunistic defense with 104 and 100, respectively, and they combine for 15.5 tackles for loss. The other all-conference selections form this group are cornerback David Fisher and strong safety Will Jones II, who spearhead the nation’s 9th-best pass defense (163 yards allowed per game on a 56.8 completion percentage). Fisher has a team-best seven deflections while Jones is one of four defensive backs with multiple interceptions on a team that relies heavily on turnovers.
San Diego State Aztecs outlook
San Diego State already tripled its win total from 2024, taking a significant leap under second-year head coach Sean Lewis who constructed a similar rebuild at Kent State. The Aztecs were in a 4-way tie for a trip to the Mountain West Championship, but the computer rankings tiebreaker favored Boise State and UNLV, causing them to barely miss their first conference title since 2016.
San Diego State attained nine victories primarily through means of a relentless defense. The Aztecs wield the 4th-best scoring defense in the FBS (12.6 points allowed per game), the 6th-best total defense (267 yards allowed per game), the 20th-best run defense, and the 4th-best pass defense — shining across the board as an elite unit. San Diego State produced three shutouts (taking 7-win California and 8-win Fresno State as victims) and limited seven of 12 opponents to seven points or fewer. The team finished 1-3 when allowing more than 10 points on the season, and this will be its greatest offensive test to date — facing the best offense in the FBS.
The Aztecs are equipped with an elite pass rusher in Trey White whose 7.0 sacks and 10.5 tackles for loss lead the team. The 6’2”, 255 pound two-time All-Mountain West First Teamer is potentially NFL bound after this contest despite holding redshirt sophomore status. With White commanding significant attention, other edge rushers like Niles King and Ryan Henderson earn their fix, and those two combine for 13.5 sacks and 19.0 tackles for loss in one of the nation’s better defensive end rooms.
Another First Team All-Mountain West selection on this vaunted defense is outside linebacker Owen Chambliss, who boasts 106 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, and five pass deflections as a versatile force. Chambliss reached 13 tackles in three separate games this year and his coverage instincts are a reason why the Aztecs hold teams to a low completion rate of 53.3 percent. Also leading the pass defense is star cornerback Chris Johnson. However, Johnson’s availability due to a foot injury is uncertain, but if available, he’ll be instrumental to locking up North Texas’ dominant aerial attack with four picks and nine pass breakups on the year.
San Diego State’s offense doesn’t command as much attention as it ranks 90th in scoring offense (24.7 points per game). But Lewis, an offensive guru known for his up-tempo RPO-based schemes, led the program to its best scoring output since its 12-2 campaign in 2021. San Diego State enters the New Mexico Bowl without starting quarterback Jayden Denegal who underwent shoulder surgery in December to advance the recovery process for 2026.
Without Denegal, Central Michigan transfer Bert Emanuel Jr. will earn the start. Emanuel only threw nine passes in his first year as an Aztec, but the quarterback is more renowned for his rushing prowess. In 2022 at Central Michigan, he once attained 293 rushing yards and three touchdowns in a single outing, proving the extent of his mobility. Expect San Diego State to keep things grounded with Emanuel executing frequent zone reads with star running back Lucky Sutton, who ranks 13th nationally with 1,237 rushing yards.
San Diego State probably won’t throw much besides third-and-longs, and being down top receiver Jordan Napier is another reason why. Thus, Donovan Brown (30 receptions, 475 yards) is the only receiving option with more than 160 yards on the season available Saturday.
Prediction
Elite offense vs. elite defense. Which one gives? San Diego State’s offense — especially down QB1 Jayden Dengal and WR1 Jordan Napier — must work incredibly hard to keep pace with North Texas’ multifaceted offense which excels in a multitude of ways. The Aztecs may provide as strong of a counter as the Mean Green have seen all season, but can the offense play good complementary football and win the field position battle?
It will be difficult, especially given North Texas’ turnover-producing tendencies. Combine that with the three-headed monster of Drew Mestemaker, Caleb Hawkins (if he plays), and Wyatt Young, and the Mean Green likely leave Albuquerque with a dominant victory.
Prediction: North Texas 35, San Diego State 13
