The Pittsburgh Panthers started the 2024 season 7-0 before dropping their final six games including a bowl loss to Toledo in Detroit. Pitt’s early season slate was a cakewalk before their second off week. That’s when the wheels fell off with games against Syracuse, SMU, Clemson, and Louisville over a seven game stretch.
Pat Narduzzi heads into his 11th season at the helm of the Pitt Panthers. Narduzzi is 72-56 overall including an ACC record of 46-36. Narduzzi’s Panthers have won the ACC once (2021)
and had won the ACC Coastal (now defunct) twice.
Under Narduzzi the Panthers have only posted two losing seasons with those coming six years apart. Pitt hadn’t put up consecutive winning seasons since Dave Wannstedt’s 5th and 6th seasons.
Pitt is going to have another easy first end and much more difficult back end. They could start off 7-2 before a tough final three games against Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and Miami to close out the season.
Pitt finished their 2025 prep haul 11th in the ACC and 64th overall per 247 Sports. Pitt’s transfer class was 64th in FBS. The Panthers lone four-star signee this year is a 5-9 DB from Ocala, FL named Josh Guerrier.
The Panthers Preseason Overall SP+ is 47th in FBS, Va. Pitt’s ST’s are 17th per SP+.
The Lean ‘Canes Business Model
Problem: Pat Narduzzi. Don’t get me wrong, Pitt winning the ACC even one time is pretty darn impressive. But at some point Narduzzi is his own problem as much as he’s the solution to the program tanking prior to his arrival.
Solution: I’m hoping he listens to OC Kade Bell enough and gets the defensive side back in order. But Narduzzi’s issue with OC’s has been hamstringing them at times in big situations which has cost him as the infighting with certain play callers hurt their on-field performance.
Unique Value Proposition: Consistency. The consistency the admin has allowed in keeping Narduzzi around through an off year or two has proven to pay off. Pitt has been more successful than say- Miami has been in the ACC over the past 10 years.
Key Metric: Does the November win total count? If it doesn’t, look for points per play to rise from 66th in year two of QB Eli Holstein and Bell together.
Competitive Advantage: Two really good coordinators in Narduzzi and Bell. Clearly with Narduzzi’s track record the defense should bounce back. If Bell has another 30+ PPG performance he might be up for a larger OC job or even a HC job in the G5.
The Achievers
The High Achievers in the conference are Miami, SMU and Clemson. Pitt seems to have gone the SMU route in the portal and they’re plugging in some holes without the entire roster overhaul of a Miami.
The Low Achievers are Wake Forest, Stanford and UVA. With all of the data points that Pitt’s defense hit and how good Desmond Reid was, the Panthers avoided losing anyone major from the stat sheets this off-season. That’s a good sign compared to the low achievers of the ACC.
The Offense
The preseason SP+ for Pitt on offense is 45th in all of FBS. The Panthers offense scored only 32.9 PPG (32nd in FBS) in ‘24. Pitt’s offense loses WR Konata Mumpfield to the NFL Draft. Mumpfield was a 7th round pick after hauling in 10 TD’s for Pitt over the past two seasons.
WR’s Kenny Johnson and Raphael Williams return after catching nine TD’s between them last season. They’re joined by the RB Reid who scored nine times from scrimmage a year ago with 1,545 yards from scrimmage as well.
Of course the Panthers will go only as far as their quarterback in Bell’s system. Eli Holstein is back after scoring 20 TD’s with seven INT’s in ‘24. Holstein averaged 7.7 yards per pass and can carry the ball when needed on the ground.
Pitt isn’t a huge portal team and added around a half dozen transfers to the offensive side of the ball including three OL.
The Film: SMU 48 – Pitt 25
SMU won the money down battle finishing 7-of-14 on 3rd downs while Pitt went 7-of-21 on 3rd and 4th down. Pitt turned the ball over twice compared to SMU’s zero turnovers, kind of a surprising data point with Kevin Jennings at QB.
SMU lost the penalty yards battle but overcame it with the other data points and making both FG attempts while Pitt missed one-of-two FG tries. The Mustangs defense dominated Holstein holding him to 5.2 yards per attempt passing with 10 PBU’s.
Above– The Safety is aligned pre-snap to help the CB inside or if the RB runs a rail type route up the hashes into the end zone. He can help on a post but the corner route they run he doesn’t move from his initial spot for.
Above– Slant/Arrow is a common route combination and you can see two inside Fin routes from the bottom of the screen. The S is going to freeze and the corner is open.
Above– Something I don’t love is the ball placement here. The ball is thrown inside as opposed to away from the CB. The CB actually gets beat and then with the throw gets a chance to get a PBU.
Above– SMU’s CB is there to fight for a ball that should’ve been a much easier TD throw. Still a TD but took much more work than necessary.
The Defense
The defensive preseason SP+ for Pitt is 56th in the country after allowing 28.4 PPG a year ago (91st in FBS). Pitt lost DB Donovan McMillon to the NFL and he’s taking one interception and eight PBU’s plus over 100 tackles with him.
The Panthers should be loaded on defense and return top four leaders in TFL which totals 55 combined TFL’s. Four of their top five in sacks also return which is 22.5 sacks from the foursome. Pitt also returns four of their five leaders in PBU’s from ‘24, who combined for 27 passes defensed.
Jimmy Scott, Kyle Louis, Rasheem Biles, Braylan Lovelace, Rashad Batle and the Panthers defense should be improved from a year ago.
The defense returned so much production they hardly hit the portal for guys to add to the two-deep. There might be 3-4 new Panthers with major playing time in 2025.
The Film
Pitt’s defense was slaughtered by the SMU offense. Jennings averaged 12.2 yards per pass on two TD’s without a turnover and Brashard Smith averaged 7.0 yards per carry with two TD’s. The ‘Stangs had five receivers with double-digit yards per catch averages as well.
Above– The SMU wide WR splits create some massive lanes for Smith once he’s in space. It also creates a 6.5 man box with one ILB that has to be picked up by the OL in order to spring this loose for an explosive.
Above– The back side guard traps the 3-tech and puts his hat inside which cuts the DL completely off from making a play on the RB.
Above– The OL wins his 2nd level block on the LB and the space the RPO game and wide splits have given SMU is evident here. RB cuts outside off the OL’s butt as he should.
Above– Smith has the vision to aim for the front pylon. He outruns the safety who is technically ahead of him and the CB that trails him. RB uses a stutter step and re-accels to win the play for a TD.
Miami needs to start spreading teams out and forcing them to cover 53 1⁄3 even with Carson Beck at QB. Force someone like Narduzzi with his three-star players to cover your WR’s in space and let the backs work 1-on-1 against a LB or no one at all like above.
2025 Prediction
The Canyonero Keys to Victory for the ‘Canes this season over Pitt is to keep your head down and drive, much like it is against Virginia Tech and NC State. The Panthers will host Miami on Thanksgiving weekend in the cold through distractions.
Miami has struggled to close out seasons having lost three of their last four a year ago, four of their last five in 2023, and three of their last four in ‘22. This could be another shot for Pitt at ruining a Miami season like the Panthers did in 2017.
Way too early prediction: Miami by 3. The Panthers will finish 8-4 this season with a strength of schedule hitting 48th per SP+. After their second off week Pitt has a tough stretch of three games hosting Notre Dame, and heading on the road to Georgia Tech before hosting Miami on senior day over Thanksgiving weekend. If Pitt squeezes one win out of those three they’ll be an 8-9 win caliber ball club.
