Those of us that can either stay up past 9pm or live on the West coast have been treated with some phenomenal postseason baseball. Unfortunately, I don’t fall in either of those categories so most of my
playoff baseball experience has been through social media or conversation at work. What I didn’t need help to realize, though, is that the St. Louis Cardinals are yet again not playing in October.
For the third straight season, the Cardinals have missed the postseason so I wanted to do a surface level scouring of some team stats since the beginning of the 2023 season to see if there were any glaring shortcomings compared to those that get to the playoffs. What I ended up coming across unintentionally was pretty interesting, and probably discussed by some before. But the Cardinals’ offense and pitching are almost built in the same way. More analysis incoming but basically, the St. Louis batters “hit for contact” and their hurlers “pitch to contact,” neither of which have been strategies to sustain success since the use of analytics around the league became more widespread.
Since the beginning of the 2023 season, the Cardinals rank 12th in baseball in hits and batting average, while sitting in the top half of the league in OBP (14th) while sitting top-1o in strikeout rate (9th). However, by measure of FanGraphs offensive value, the Cardinals hitters rank 18th in the league with a -30.3 value. So with those rate stats sitting above average, what gives?
We have known for a bit that the Cardinals lacked power, but the presence of Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, and even Nolan Gorman covered up how bad it was. Since the start of 2023, the Cardinals rank 22nd in homers with 522 over three seasons. Of the 21 teams ahead of the Cardinals, only the Angels and Athletics have not been in the playoffs since 2023. Fine no homers, other extra-base hits? Not really. 785 doubles puts them in 16th, and their 42 triples is third-to-last in baseball. Have no fear, the single is here! The Cardinals rank 6th in all of baseball with 2,721 singles to help push up to the team’s .247 average over that span.
Besides the power, the team also sits 17th in walks but they are 9th in strikeouts. While singles are well and good, the lack of power to drive a runner in from first makes it more of a problem. Especially since the team also sits 24th in baseball in stolen bases, there is a lot of station to station baserunning going on. Maybe we can’t fault Pop Warner too much for some of his ridiculous sends?
However you want to look at it, the St. Louis offense has not been able to get it done, thanks to underperforming veterans or prospects who haven’t yet taken the next step. That has led to the team sitting 20th in runs scored and overall checking in at a 99 WRC+. Probably right where they belong as they have a 232-254 record over those three seasons. Their top three offensive contributors in that span based on that measure are Ivan Herrera (133), Contreras (129), and Brendan Donovan (117).
So, my question: Even in a true rebuild year, should the Cardinals opt for power over anything else at the plate?
Of those three names above, Contreras paces the team with 55 homers since 2023. The actual team leader is Nolan Gorman, with 60, but he checks in along with the team at a 99 WRC+. From the current roster (scratching Arenado’s 54 homers, assuming he is traded), Alec Burleson is next with 47 homers, ahead of Lars Nootbaar’s 39. If you’re keeping track at home, Cal Raleigh matched Gorman’s three season total just this year, while Kyle Schwarber and Ohtani beat or tied Contreras’ three-season mark in 2025. Aaron Judge and Eugenio Suarez wrap up those with single-season home run totals that are better than Burleson’s three-year total.
The 2026 Cardinals lineup is going to look very similar to what we saw the majority of the year, again assuming Arenado is dealt. The answer to the power problem may not be on the current roster, so some further changes would have to take place if they really want to get some pop in the lineup. I mentioned it last week, but I am in favor of fielding offers on all four lefties, but putting priority on dealing Donovan and Nootbaar. Moving Donnie would open up more opportunity for Gorman outside of third base and also keep the lineup more or less in dexterity balance while providing more home run potential. This move also clears the path for JJ Wetherholt to take an everyday role, but I don’t see him being the answer to the power outage.
While Noot is on the team’s leaderboard in homers, trading him could move Burleson to the outfield full(er) time, as long as he defense remains playable. With Ivan Herrera looking to get back to catcher next season, Burly in the outfield also creates potential for the Cardinals to sign a full-time DH. St. Louis has never really committed to a prototypical DH since it’s universal implementation and this could be the year to find one. Burly profiles as designated hitter because of his defense, but in my theoretical of placing power first, his 20 homers can play better in left field than at DH.
I admit, I was hoping that Luken Baker would get a legitimate opportunity to operate as the power bat in the middle of the order, but he did not get much run before being DFA’d and scooped up by the Dodgers. There is not much else in terms of strict power but maybe Blaze Jordan or Jordan Walker could eventually get to that spot. I am typically against moving young guys away from playing defense, so if the team opts to find home runs, they may have to look outside of the organization.
I try not to go too much into theoretical trades so that took me more to the names that will grace the free agent market this offseason. As always with free agency, the team has to be willing to spend, but the player also has to want to go to that city, so it truly has to be a two-way street. So while names like Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber are fun to think about, there is no chance they would come to St. Louis. On the market, then, I found only a couple of even potentially realistic options, understanding that any major league signing would take away playing time from those already in the organization.
Of the players that would weigh a bounce back deal, Rhys Hoskins was one that I think would be fun to tap into. He has been solid with the Brewers but then was replaced by Andrew Vaughn after getting hurt. Hoskins has an $18 million mutual option that will definitely not be exercised, so he will head to the offseason looking for a new opportunity. The revenge season storyline would also draw some excitement if he were able to get back into the 30 homer, 30 double campaign he is capable of. Hoskins is not much of a defensive first baseman, so the full-time DH spot could be open for the 32-year-old.
The only other that I think there could be any possibility of mutual interest is Ryan O’Hearn, who put together a third consecutive above-average offensive season while playing with Baltimore and San Diego. O’Hearn played a solid outfield while filling in at first base and put up solid numbers on the defensive side of the ball. He will probably command more interest around the league and likely a multi-year deal, so he will likely be out of the Cardinals price range.
While my question remains, the possibility of seeing multiple 30-homer threats in the lineup may not be on the horizon for the 2025 season. In order to reach that milestone, players like Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, and Ivan Herrera have the potential, but need to stay healthy and consistent for a full season.
