Ranking Big 12 Conference men’s basketball teams ahead of league play

Arizona’s first season in the Big 12 Conference was a great unknown: it had no idea just how tough the league was going to be until the games were played, and after struggling in the leadup to the Big 12 there

was no shortage of concern over the Wildcats could handle the increased challenge.

Then the UA went 14-6, good enough for a tie for third place.

This year, the Wildcats head into Big 12 play as one of the favorites after sweeping one of the toughest nonconference slates in college basketball. There’s still another pre-conference game on the slate, Monday against South Dakota State, and most other teams in the league have another contest before Big 12 action begins, but now is as good a time as any to break down how things look ahead of conference action.

The Big 12 only plays 18 conference games this season, down from 20 in 2024-25, so there will only be three home-and-home matchups for each school. Arizona’s trio of home-and-homes are against ASU, BYU and Kansas

Here’s low the league looks a week out from the start of conference play on Jan. 2:

1. Arizona Wildcats

• Record: 12-0
• KenPom ranking: No. 2
• Best wins: No. 7 UConn, No. 12 Alabama, No. 17 Florida
• Worst loss: None
• Projected Big 12 record: 15-3

Arizona is off to its best start since 2014-15, the first school in the AP poll poll to beat five ranked teams in its first nine games. The Wildcats headed into the holidays winning their last seven by at least 20 points, the best streak since 1928-29, and based on how their schedule plays out could get to 20-0 before their first real challenge at BYU on Jan. 26. KenPom.com gives the UA at least a 51 percent chance to win every remaining nonconference game.

2. Iowa State Cyclones

• Record: 12-0
• KenPom ranking: No. 3
• Best wins: No. 5 Purdue, No. 18 Iowa, No. 20 St. John’s
• Worst loss: None
• Projected Big 12 record: 14-4

Iowa State, which wraps up nonconference play Monday against Houston Christian, last entered Big 12 play unbeaten in 2021-22. This year’s Cyclones squad has arguably the best individual win, blowing out then-AP No. 1 Purdue on the road by 23 points on Dec. 6, and all but two games have been decided by at least 16 points. The first projected loss isn’t until late February at BYU but ISU visits Baylor and Kansas in the first two weeks of league play.

When they play Arizona: March 2 (Tucson)

3. Houston Cougars

• Record: 11-1
• KenPom ranking: No. 10
• Best wins: No. 28 Arkansas, No. 37 Auburn
• Worst loss: No. 15 Tennessee
• Projected Big 12 record: 13-5

Houston’s only setback so far is by three to Tennessee at the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas, a much better nonconference performance than a year ago when it went into the Big 12 at 8-3. The Cougars are showing more offensive spark of late, averaging 88.8 points over the last four games. The first projected loss isn’t until early February at BYU but before then are two games with Texas Tech, the only team Houston lost to in the league in 2024-25.

When they play Arizona: Feb. 21 (Houston)

4. BYU Cougars

• Record: 12-1
• KenPom ranking: No. 11
• Best wins: No. 24 Villanova, No. 35 , No. 36 Miami (Fla.)
• Worst loss: No. 7 UConn
• Projected Big 12 record: 13-5

BYU massively beefed up its nonconference slate this season after having one of the weakest slates last year, mostly as a way for possible No. 1 NBA draft pick AJ Dybantsa to get showcased. Dybantsa has been very good but the Cougars have struggled early in a lot of games, including being down by 21 at the half to Clemson before winning on Dec. 9. BYU. It could be a battle of unbeatens in Big 12 play when Arizona comes to town at the end of January for Big Monday.

When they play Arizona: Jan. 26 (Provo), Feb. 18 (Tucson)

5. Texas Tech Red Raiders

• Record: 9-3
• KenPom ranking: No. 26
• Best wins: No. 6 Duke, No. 40 LSU, No. 59 Wake Forest
• Worst loss: No. 28 Arkansas
• Projected Big 12 record: 10-8

Texas Tech went 4-3 against top-100 KenPom teams, getting blown out by Purdue by 30 in the Bahamas in November, but didn’t break through with a real quality victory until knocking off Duke last week. The Red Raiders still have reigning Player of the Year JT Toppin but the depth is questionable at best. Tech has one of the tougher starts to league play, projected to lose four of its first seven games.

When they play Arizona: Feb. 14 (Tucson)

6. Kansas Jayhawks

• Record: 10-3
• KenPom ranking: No. 16
• Best wins: No. 15 Tennessee, No. 27 NC State, No. 63 Missouri
• Worst loss: No. 21 North Carolina
• Projected Big 12 record: 11-7

Kansas managed to navigate a very difficult nonconference slate—toughest in the Big 12, per KenPom—despite only having star freshman Daryn Peterson for four games because of injury. The supporting cast has stepped up big time, including journeyman guard Melvin Council, and if the Jayhawks can get back to full strength they’ll once again be a tough out in the league. A clash with Iowa State on Jan. 13 is projected as the first home loss by one of the conference’s top teams.

When they play Arizona: Feb. 9 (Lawrence), Feb. 28 (Tucson)

7. Baylor Bears

• Record: 9-2
• KenPom ranking: No. 29
• Best wins: No. 44 Creighton, No. 47 Washington, No. 52 San Diego State
• Worst loss: No. 71 Memphis
• Projected Big 12 record: 9-9

Baylor still has a game against non-Division I opponent Arlington Baptist on Monday, which should be its third straight 100-point result and eighth scoring at least 90. The Bears gave up 81 to the same San Diego State team Arizona held to 45 and lost their only true road game, so there’s still work to be done to be considered one of the challengers for the league title. There won’t be a shortage of early tests, facing Iowa State, Houston, Kansas and Texas Tech in the first six games.

When they play Arizona: Feb. 24 (Waco)

8. UCF Knights

• Record: 11-1
• KenPom ranking: No. 45
• Best wins: No. 49 Texas A&M, No. 90 Pittsburgh
• Worst loss: No. 8 Vanderbilt
• Projected Big 12 record: 9-9

UCF put together the kind of nonconference schedule that a team which needed to get off to a hot start should have, and it handled it well. Winning at Texas A&M, a game they trailed by 14 in the second half, was a huge bonus for a Knights program that was 2-8 in Big 12 road games a season ago. The conference opener against Kansas on Jan. 3 could be a springboard to the first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2018-19.

When they play Arizona: Jan. 17 (Orlando)

9. Oklahoma State Cowboys

• Record: 11-1
• KenPom ranking: No. 61
• Best wins: No. 49 Texas A&M, No. 54 Northwestern, No. 86 South Florida
• Worst loss: No. 50 Oklahoma
• Projected Big 12 record: 6-12

Oklahoma State didn’t get to 11 wins until February in Steve Lutz’s first season but with a win Monday over Bethune-Cookman will have their most nonconference victories since 2013-14. The real tests come early for the Cowboys, who visit Texas Tech and Iowa State in the first three conference games, but if the early performance is any indication they shouldn’t have trouble surpassing their projected league win total.

When they play Arizona: Feb. 7 (Tucson)

10. ASU Sun Devils

• Record: 9-4
• KenPom ranking: No. 77
• Best wins: No. 46 Texas, No. 50 Oklahoma, No. 80 Santa Clara
• Worst loss: No. 165 Oregon State
• Projected Big 12 record: 6-12

Until dropping the nonconference finale at home to an Oregon State team that’s projected to finish near the bottom of the West Coast Conference it had been a pretty solid preseason for ASU. Going 2-1 in Maui (3-1 including a win at Hawaii) was a good result, and the offense looks good, but eight opponents have scored at least 75 and defensive issues could mount in league play. The Sun Devils have to visit BYU, Arizona and Houston in their first five Big 12 games.

When they play Arizona: Jan. 14 (Tucson), Jan. 31 (Tempe)

11. Kansas State Wildcats

• Record: 8-4
• KenPom ranking: No. 58
• Best wins: No. 44 Creighton, No. 57 Cal, No. 82 Tulsa
• Worst loss: No. 107 Bowling Green
• Projected Big 12 record: 7-11

Kansas State dropped four in a row during nonconference play, the worst of which was to a Bowling Green squad that has only six other wins over Division I opponents. The Wildcats were streaky a year ago, too, and that was with more talent, but if Memphis transfer PJ Haggerty (22.8 points per game) can get some help the ship can be righted. KenPom projects an 0-3 start to Big 12 play, though.

When they play Arizona: Jan. 7 (Tucson)

12. Colorado Buffaloes

• Record: 10-2
• KenPom ranking: No. 70
• Best wins: No. 47 Washington, No. 75 Providence, No. 97 San Francisco
• Worst loss: No. 81 Stanford
• Projected Big 12 record: 7-11

Colorado started 0-13 in the Big 12 last season, but before that went 9-2 including a win over 2-time defending champ UConn. The quality of the victories so far this campaign don’t match that one but overall the Buffaloes look much improved and could better resemble the squad that finished 5-6 in 2024-25. The league opener at ASU on Jan. 3 could be a litmus test for how the rest of this season will go.

When they play Arizona: March 7 (Boulder)

13. TCU Horned Frogs

• Record: 9-3
• KenPom ranking: No. 56
• Best wins: No. 12 Florida, No. 43 Wisconsin
• Worst loss: No. 219 New Orleans
• Projected Big 12 record: 7-11

Which TCU team is the real deal? The one that knocked off defending champ Florida and Big Ten power Wisconsin on back-to-back days over Thanksgiving in San Diego or the one that lost its opener to a sub-200 opponent and trailed by 14 to Incarnate Word a few weeks ago? Jamie Dixon has done a lot of good things at his alma mater, getting the Horned Frogs to the NCAA Tournament four times and their first tourney win since 1987, but with a projected 0-4 start to Big 12 play this season could go off the rails quickly.

When they play Arizona: Jan. 10 (Fort Worth)

14. West Virginia Mountaineers

• Record: 9-4
• KenPom ranking: No. 67
• Best wins: No. 90 Pittsburgh
• Worst loss: No. 102 Xavier
• Projected Big 12 record: 7-11

With a fourth head coach in as many seasons, just getting some stability under first-year coach Ross Hodge will trump any results from 2025-26. Which is good, because the easiest nonconference schedule in the Big 12—and 6th-easiest in Division I—produced nothing of substance. All of the Mountaineers’ projected league wins are at home, presumably because of the travel involved with getting to Morgantown.

When they play Arizona: Jan. 24 (Tucson)

15. Cincinnati Bearcats

• Record: 7-5
• KenPom ranking: No. 72
• Best wins: No. 65 Dayton
• Worst loss: No. 208 Eastern Michigan
• Projected Big 12 record: 6-12

Cincinnati has one of the best defensive ratings in the Big 12 but also the worst offensive one, and it’s not even close. That’s kind of been the formula under fifth-year coach Wes Miller, who hasn’t made an NCAA Tournament and may be running out of chances to do so. The return of Jizzle James, last year’s leading scorer who had been dismissed from the team before a recent reinstatement, could help turn things around for the Bearcats.

When they play Arizona: Jan. 21 (Tucson)

16. Utah Utes

• Record: 8-4
• KenPom ranking: No. 123
• Best wins: No. 60 Ole Miss
• Worst loss: No. 237 Cal Poly
• Projected Big 12 record: 4-14

Utah saw how well BYU fared in its first season under a coach who came from the NBA ranks and decided to do the same, firing semi-successful Craig Smith for alum Alex Jensen. The early returns have not been good at all, with the lowest-rated defense in the Big 12 and the worst nonconference loss of anyone in the league. The Utes are projected to lose every game in conference play, given a 40 percent chance or better to win just four times.

When they play Arizona: Jan. 3 (Tucson)