As the Jacksonville Jaguars prepare to face the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 9, we sat down with Matt Holder of Silver & Black Pride to learn more about the opposing side.
Question 1: The Raiders rank 30th
in yards per game and 31st in points per game. Is there a simple explanation for their offensive woes?
As expected with numbers that poor, the Raiders’ offense is a multifaceted issue.
First, Geno Smith is leading the league with 10 interceptions and not providing the high-level plays that he’s shown in the past. PFF has Smith with a 4.5% “turnover-worthy play” rate, which is his highest as a starter since his rookie season with the Jets, and a 2.4% “big time throw” rate, the lowest of his career as a starter. The 13-year veteran is playing like a rookie, struggling to read the field or adjusting when the defense rolls coverage post-snap, and locking onto his first read.
What isn’t helping is that offensive coordinator Chip Kelly is still running a college-level offense. The timing in the passing game is off because there have been several instances where the quarterback reaches the top of his drop in the pocket, but the receivers haven’t finished their routes, or vice versa. That’s led to a few poor decisions from Smith and caused him to hold onto the ball too long. Personally, I’d put more blame on Smith than Kelly because there have been instances where receivers are open and he either misses the read or the throw.
Additionally, the offensive line has been having issues in the first half of the season. The coaching staff decided to reshuffle the interior lineup that was effective at the end of last year, moving Jordan Meredith from left guard to center, Dylan Parham from right to left guard, and Jackson Powers-Johnson from center to right guard. That led to a slow start for the Raiders in the trenches, and Powers-Johnson seems to be on thin ice with the new coaching staff for some reason. Despite showing promise as a rookie, he’s been forced to compete with Alex Cappa for a starting job and recently got benched during the blowout loss in Kansas City. On top of all that, starting left tackle Kolton Miller has been out since Week 4 and is currently on injured reserve with a high-ankle sprain and a hairline fracture in his leg.
Question 2: Las Vegas allowed 41 points to Washington in Week 3, 40 points to Indianapolis in Week 5, and 31 points to Kansas City in Week 7. Was there a common theme to those defensive performances?
I could get into more schematics and statistics on those games, but the fact of the matter is that Las Vegas’ defense just lacks talent outside of Maxx Crosby. The unit had a few good performances against a Patriots’ offense that was still learning a new system in the season opener, and when facing a floundering Titans team with rookie Cam Ward at quarterback and a lame duck head coach who was fired after the game. But the success wasn’t sustainable, and it’s no coincidence that the Raiders are struggling to stop the best offense they’ve faced, including getting picked apart by the Commanders’ backup quarterback, Marcus Mariota.
The Raiders let several key starters from last year’s team walk in free agency and replaced them with bargain bin signings while using four of their first five draft picks on offensive players. On top of that, the one defender they did use one of those selections on, cornerback Darien Porter, has barely seen the field with just one start, despite the team’s secondary struggling.
Long story short, the Silver and Black’s defense is essentially comprised of Crosby and a bunch of role players, and we’re seeing the results of the organization’s offseason approach.
Question 3: Sixth-overall pick Ashton Jeanty only has one game with over 75 rushing yards this season, though it doesn’t seem all his fault. How has the rookie running back looked so far?
Jeanty is honestly the least of my concerns. As mentioned above, the offensive line was bad to begin the season. The play in the trenches was better in Weeks 4-6, which led to an uptick in the rookie running back’s production. I will say that he needed to be more patient and improve his vision in the backfield during the beginning of the campaign, but he’s already shown growth in that department by finding cutback lanes to break off a few chunk runs or explosive plays.
Jeanty’s production has certainly been underwhelming, but as you mentioned, it’s not really his fault, and he’s shown growth from week to week. The latter is really all you can ask for from a first-year player. Hopefully, the offensive line issues get sorted out so that the No. 6 overall pick can put up some better numbers and get more positive attention.
Question 4: Who’s an under-the-radar player or two that Jaguars fans should watch for on Sunday?
On defense, I’ll go out on a limb and say Darien Porter. I mentioned previously that Porter has only started one game, and that was when starter Eric Stokes was out with an injury. However, the rookie has done everything the coaching staff has asked him to do on his limited opportunities, and the Raiders’ other first-string corner, Kyu Blu Kelly, has given up the second-most receiving yards at the position (399; trailing only former Jaguar Tyson Campbell) according to PFF. So, I think the Iowa State product is in for more playing time after the bye, and he has enormous potential with his combination of size (6-foot-3, 195 pounds), length (over 33-inch arms), and speed (4.3-second 40-yard dash).
Offensively, wide receiver Tre Tucker. With Brock Bowers not 10% since Week 1 and missing the last three games, while trade rumors circulate about Jakobi Meyers, Tucker has become the leading receiver in Las Vegas with 29 catches, 389 yards and four touchdowns. The third-year pro has been one of the team’s few bright spots and is starting to come into his own.
Question 5: Do you expect the Raiders to cover as 3-point underdogs, and do you like any bets/props for the game?
I think the Raiders can cover, seeing as the Jaguars have cooled off since their impressive three-game winning streak against the Texans, 49ers, and Chiefs. But I wouldn’t say I’m expecting them to. I’d pick Jacksonville to win the game outright, and Las Vegas has too many issues on both sides of the ball to confidently say the team can keep it to a field-goal game on Sunday.
FanDuel doesn’t have any prop best listed yet, or at least not at the time of writing, but I’d take the over on Crosby’s sacks if it’s 1.25 or less. I think he could be in for a multi-sack performance, seeing as Jacksonville has given up 20 sacks in seven games this season.
Thanks to Matt for taking the time to answer our questions!
Let us know your thoughts on the matchup in the comments below!
