On Saturday, the Dallas Wings netted 107 points, the most ever in a WNBA opening game. Later that night, the Atlanta Dream dropped 91 points in their comeback win, doing so after scoring just 37 points in the first half.
In short, Tuesday night’s matchup between the Wings and Dream in Dallas could be an offensive explosion (8 p.m. ET, WNBA League Pass).
Dallas’ opening day offensive outburst was driven by their starting guard trio of Arike Ogunbowale, Paige Buecekrs and Odyssey Sims, all of whom scored
at least 20 points on better than 53 percent shooting. Plus, Aziaha James served as fourth scoring guard, with 10 points on 60 percent shooting from the bench.
As a team, Dallas shot almost 60 percent from the field, and over 50 percent from 3. Yeah, that’s unsustainable.
But, there are reasons to be confident in what Dallas did.
The Wings racked up all those buckets around the basket and behind the arc, achieving an analytically-optimal shot profile. Only Bueckers did her work in the midrange, as she should have permission to do. Even as both Ogunbowale and Sims are streaky scorers, that head coach Jose Fernandez has coaxed them into taking more-efficient shots—cause they’re going to keep taking shots—is encouraging.
Yet, the Wings guards can expect to encounter more resistance on Tuesday.
While the Dream did allow the Lynx to score 90 points, they limited Minnesota to 38 points in the second half, effectively containing both Kayla McBride and Courtney Williams. The combination of Jordin Canada, Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard can matchup pretty well with whatever three-guard group Dallas deploys. Plus, Atlanta, in contrast to the Indiana Fever, has two, not just one, solid post defender in Angel Reese and Naz Hillmon, both of whom can potentially make it harder for Jessica Shepard to serve as a playmaking hub. If Alanna Smith is stationed as stretch big, both Reese and Hillmon also can comfortably defend her away from the basket.
When Atlanta’s offense came to life in the second half in Minnesota, it was not due to the 3-ball. One of the most prolific 3-point shooting teams in W last season, the Dream shot less than 25 percent from 3, making only one of their 11 second-half attempts. Instead, Atlanta attacked the basket and earned their way to the foul line.
And, as would be expected of the team that now employs Angel Reese, the Dream dominated the glass. Atlanta secured over 60 percent of available boards in their win, with Angel grabbing 14 total, including nine o-boards.
Although Atlanta certainly would like to see their 3s fall, the Dream can exploit the Wings with a similar script.
Dallas has multiple defenders vulnerable to foul trouble; on the perimeter, both Ogunbowale and Sims ended the opener with five, while, in the frontcourt, Smith was limited to less than 20 minutes due to instant foul trouble and Shepard also finished with five. (Or maybe Wings fans want Arike and Odyssey to get in foul trouble to open up more minutes for Azzi?)
The Wings’ foul vulnerability could be exacerbated by their rebounding vulnerability, as, in their effort to keep Angel off the glass, they could end up hacking her.
If the second-half Dream show up on Tuesday, they should have the advantage. However, Paige is Paige and, even if their opening explosion is not replicable, these are not last season’s Wings.
What’s your assessment? Can the Dream go into Dallas and give the Wings a reality check? Or, will the opposite occur, with the Wings flexing their firepower on Atlanta?
What to watch in Lynx-Mercury and Liberty-Fire
Elsewhere around the W, both the Phoenix Mercury and New York Liberty will play their third game.
For the Mercury, it’s their first opportunity to play in front of the X Factor, with the Minnesota Lynx in town (10 p.m. ET, WNBA League Pass).
The matchup offers an early rookie showdown between the Lynx’s expected rookie standout Olivia Miles, fresh off a 21-point debut, and the Mercury’s Jovana Nogic, the 29-year-old sharpshooter from Serbia who is 8-for-10 from 3 to start her WNBA career.
The pivot point of this game, however, is more likely the Lynx froncourt, which will be the case until Dorka Juhász and Napheesa Collier return to the lineup. Can Minnesota’s mostly inexperienced group, plus a past-her-prime Natasha Howard, hold up against the full force of Alyssa Thomas?
Or, do you see something else potentially swinging this game?
The still-depleted Liberty will look to continue to take advantage of their friendly early-season schedule in Portland against the expansion Fire (10 p.m. ET, WNBA League Pass).
As Zack Ward highlighted, the play of Marine Johannès, Pauline Astier and Julie Vanloo has helped New York survive in their current state. Continued positive play from those three, on top of Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones doing their things against an overmatched Fire frontcourt, should be more enough against a Portland side that is prioritizing process over results.
Do you think the Fire can muster a tougher fight than expected against the Liberty? Or, will Stewie and company cruise to 3-0?
