The Los Angeles Rams started the season 9-2 before losing three of their final six games. After remaining relatively healthy for much of the season, injuries to Quentin Lake and Kevin Dotson created a speed
bump in the middle of what was an otherwise strong season.
It was the polar opposite from the last two years in which the Rams started the season with injuries and got healthy as the year progressed. In 2023, the Rams started 3-6, but finished 7-1. Last year, the Rams were 1-4 and then finished 9-2 with a third loss coming after resting starters.
This season, it would have been very difficult to overcome that sort of start. However, they started 9-2 and were looking like the best team in the NFL before their late-season slump. In 2023 and 2024, the Rams were playing their best football going into the playoffs and it didn’t seem to matter. This year, the Rams may have been playing their worst football heading into the playoffs.
After Lake went down with an injury, the Rams allowed 27 or more points in four out of seven games to end the season. Two of the three games in which they didn’t were against the Arizona Cardinals. After averaging 128.5 yards per game and 4.67 yards per carry with a 58.1 rushing success rate in Weeks 1-15, that dropped after Kevin Dotson’s injury. Since Week 16, they have averaged 4.18 yards per carry which is nearly a full half yard less. The drop in overall yards per game and success rate has been minimal, but the loss of Dotson did have an effect. In pass protection, Matthew Stafford went from being pressured at a 28.5 percent rate to 34.5 percent.
That doesn’t mention the hamstring injury to Davante Adams. Before Adams’ injury, the Rams were 25-for-33 in the red zone since the bye week. That’s a conversion rate of 75.8 percent. In the three games without Adams, they were 6-for-13 for a 46.2 percent touchdown rate in the red zone. Some regression to the mean may have been expected. However, a near-30 percent drop is significant.
Last week, the Rams got Quentin Lake back in the lineup. While he allowed eight receptions for 94 yards and was picked on against the Carolina Panthers, he’s also the best chance that the Rams have at slowing down some of the Bears’ weapons. That’s especially the case when it comes to Colston Loveland. The hope will be that with a game under his belt, Lake performs as he did early in the season.
Dotson should help revive a run game against a defense that has struggled against the run this season. The Bears have allowed a 44 percent rushing success rate this season which is the sixth-worst in the NFL. Since Week 10, it is the fourth-worst. Since Week 10, the Rams have a 51.9 rushing success rate which is the best in the NFL.
The Bears defense ranks 19th in the red zone this season. Since Week 10 though, they’ve only allowed a 50 percent touchdown rate in the red zone. For the Rams to have a healthy Adams in this game will be important. He’s taken an average red zone offense and made it one of the best in the NFL.
Additionally, Terrance Ferguson could be back against the Bears. The rookie tight end started slow, but was starting to develop and show promise over the second half of the season. From Weeks 9-17, Ferguson led all tight ends in yards per reception and average depth of target. He had become a legitimate down field threat in the passing game. The Bears have allowed the 10th most receptions to tight ends. It will be interesting to see how the Rams utilize Ferguson with Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson, but he’s an important piece of the passing game.
On the other side,The Bears may be happy just to end their season with a win against the Green Bay Packers in the playoffs. They would obviously like to go to the NFC Championship, but everything for them after that win is gravy. The Bears have also suffered some injuries that could loom large.
Bears linebacker T.J. Edwards will miss the game; he’s a top-15 coverage linebacker. Ozzy Trapilo provided the Bears some stability at left tackle. The Bears could turn to Theo Benedet who ranks inside the bottom-10 in pass-blocking efficiency or Braxton Jones who has been on injured reserve since October.
At this point in the season, all teams are going to be managing their own injuries. Matthew Stafford isn’t 100 percent after spraining his finger last week. Ahkello Witherspoon was also placed on injured reserve. However, considering it’s the divisional round of the playoffs, the Rams are in pretty good shape. They are getting key players back while other teams are losing key players to injury.
When the Rams have been healthy this season, they have been the best team in the NFL. Heading into the divisional round of the playoffs, they may be getting healthy again at the right time and in time to make a run.
