Abreu suffered yet another late inning failure last night in taking the loss against the Mariners.
At this point, it’s kind of past ugly. This is full blown concern. What is wrong with Bryan Abreu?
Abreu has been one of the most dominant relievers in baseball for the last four seasons. He’s recorded at least 100 strikeouts in the last three, joining a very rare and exclusive club of relievers with three straight seasons of at least 100 strikeouts that includes Dick Radatz, Rob Dibble, Duane Ward, Aroldis
Chapman and Dellin Betances.(Mason Miller may well join that list this season.)
This is what makes Abreu’s struggles so hard to understand. They essentially break down to two things: inconsistent velocity and lack of command.
Considering the Astros have attributed Abreu’s velocity issues to mechanics and not injury, this one is truly befuddling. It’s rare for a pitcher in their prime to suddenly just lose their form and lose the amount of velocity Abreu has.
Since 2022, Abreu’s average fastball velocity has been 97.2, 97.6, 96.7, 97.3.
His average exit velocities have been 86.6, 89.9, 90.4, 90.6.
This season his average fastball velocity is 95.2 – over 2 MPH off last season.
His average exit velocity this year is 99.5 – almost a full 9 MPH above last season and among the absolute worst in baseball.
The inconsistency in his velocity is also troubling.
Last night, Abreu threw 13 fastballs, ranging in speed from 93.5 MPH to 96.9 MPH. He did not throw one single fastball at his average velocity from last season.
The fastest one he threw was the one he gave up the game-winning hit on. It was the only hit he allowed, and the only one needed as he previously walked the bases loaded.
Which brings us to the second part of Abreu’s deconstruction, the lack of command.
After getting a strikeout to open the inning, Abreu walked the next three batters in a row on a total of 16 pitches. He walked the first two on a total of 9 pitches. His fastball was essentially everywhere except in the zone. It was so bad that he finished the AB to Leo Rivas (the third of the three straight walks) with 6 straight sliders.
In the AB to JP Crawford that resulted in the game-winning run scoring, he threw three straight fastballs, with every one of them being right over the middle of the plate. He had to groove them because he didn’t trust he could command them.
After the game, Joe Espada defended his closer, as any manager should.
I understand wanting to be patient with Abreu, because of his track record. However, there is a real question to be asked here:
At the cost of how many games?
Abreu is 0-2 this season and currently sports an ERA of 20.25 and a WHIP of 4.00. Those numbers are practically unfathomable.
In no way am I advocating that the Astros should completely bail on Abreu, he is far too talented a pitcher and they are already down two key relievers in closer Josh Hader and setup man Bennett Sousa.
I am advocating that it is time to remove him from the closer role and utilize him in lower leverage spots until he gets himself straightened out.
Bryan King could temporarily take over the closer role. AJ Blubaugh (who pitched a clean 8th in yesterday’s game) can set him up until Abreu finds his proper form and/or Hader/Sousa return.
Yes it’s early, but at some point you have to show you are willing to stop the bleeding.
The Astros have lost 6 straight. They have scored the most runs in all of baseball at 92. They are 3 games under .500 and have a -3 run differential because they lead the majors in runs allowed at 95.
The team that has allowed the 2nd most runs is the Washington Nationals at 82. The most allowed in the AL is 76 by the Tampa Bay Rays.
At some point, the Astros will get the pitching figured out (hopefully), but they cannot maintain the status quo. Not even for another game.
