Game notes
- Time and date: Friday, November 6 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN2
- Location: Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium — Greenville, NC
- Spread: East Carolina (-2.5)
- Over/under: 39.5
- All-time series: South Florida leads, 9-4
- Last meeting: East Carolina 48, South Florida 28 — October 1, 2022
- Current streak: East Carolina, 3 (2020-22)
Setting the scene
Surprisingly, it’s been four years since East Carolina and South Florida battled on a football field.
The Pirates and Bulls reunite for the first time since 2022 for a Friday night showdown in Greenville. The rosters have turned over. The coaches have changed. And both programs have taken steps forward since that matchup.
South Florida is bowl eligible for a fourth-straight season and currently tied for the second-best overall record in the American Conference in Brian Hartline’s first year at the helm.
East Carolina is 18-9 under head coach Blake Harrell and 12-5 in conference games, hoping to win a fourth consecutive game over the Bulls.
South Florida Bulls outlook
South Florida (6-2, 2-2 American) secured bowl eligibility last week after playing its most complete game of the season. The Bulls trailed UAB 10-0 after the first quarter but definitively turned things around with 30 unanswered points to the finish line.
South Florida’s defense has been the defining feature of the team all season. The Bulls rank 10th nationally in scoring defense at 14.5 points allowed per game and 24th in total defense. Opponents score touchdowns on just 35.0 percent of red zone trips against this unit, making it the second-best red zone defense in the country. USF doesn’t even allow many red zone trips in the first place, and only 12 teams have allowed fewer.
Last week, the Bulls limited UAB to 177 yards and forced two turnovers. It was the breakout game for former five-star prospect C.J. Hicks, who followed Brian Hartline from Ohio State this offseason. Hicks recorded more than half of his career sack total, registering four against the Blazers. He also forced a pair of fumbles that were returned for defensive touchdowns, securing American Conference Defensive Player of the Week honors. Two games ago, Hicks recorded a scoop-and-score himself, making USF tied for fourth in the country with three defensive touchdowns.
USF’s defense knows East Carolina quite well. Defensive coordinator Josh Aldridge spent last season in the same role at ECU before his offseason move to Tampa. Other standouts on Aldridge’s unit include inside linebacker Grayson “Pup” Howard, who has 30 tackles and two tackles for loss, and strong safety Ayden Jackson, who leads the Bulls in tackles (42) and pass breakups (4).
The offense remains a work in progress, and now it must overcome adversity at quarterback. Starter Michael Van Buren Jr. suffered an injury in the UAB game, causing the Bulls to turn to Luke Kromenhoek to conclude the contest. Van Buren’s status for Friday is unknown. Excluding last Saturday when he had two attempts, Van Buren is averaging 181 passing yards per game but taking exceptional care of the ball with zero interceptions on 181 attempts. Kromenhoek provides more of the mobile element. The Florida State and Mississippi State transfer only registered 39 passing yards on 10 attempts last week but led all rushers with 92 yards.
South Florida is fresh off its first 30-point outing against FBS competition this year, although two of those touchdowns were courtesy of the defense. The Bulls are 129th in the FBS in yards per game, ranking 129th in passing and 80th in rushing. D.J. Crowther shoulders a heavy load on the ground, producing 578 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on the season. Through the air, Ohio State transfer Bryson Rodgers and Joshua Porter are the primary threats, combining for 56 receptions, 619 yards, and four touchdowns.
USF is the epitome of a second half team. The Bulls outscore opponents 128-47 after halftime and have won seven of eight second halves this year, including four in shutout fashion.
East Carolina Pirates outlook
East Carolina (4-4, 2-2 American) is .500 overall and in conference play, and a majority of its games have come down to the wire. The Pirates have participated in five one-score games, including three in American play. In fact, both conference losses happened in overtime in games where they held double-digit third quarter leads. They still haven’t lost in regulation since Week 2.
While ECU lost defensive coordinator Josh Aldridge to South Florida this offseason, the Pirates remain potent on defense under Jordon Hankins, who served as Memphis’ defensive coordinator from 2024-25. The scoring defense numbers have been skewed, as ECU lost its two overtimes by a combined score of 20-0 this season. However, the Pirates haven’t allowed a first half touchdown in five consecutive games, consistently firing on all cylinders out of the gate.
East Carolina is among the nation’s elite when it comes to backfield pressure. The Pirates rank fourth nationally with 8.8 tackles for loss per game, and eight different defenders have at least four tackles for loss, led by defensive end Kieran Davis’ eight. Teams run the ball often against ECU, and the Pirates face the 10th-most rushing attempts per game in the country. However, they stifle teams to 3.4 yards per carry, which is the best mark in the American.
There is no drop-off with the Pirates’ passing defense, which allows a completion rate of 57.1. ECU has secured more interceptions (8) than it has allowed passing touchdowns (6). Last week, Angelo Ross, Zyeir Gamble, and Ashton Levells-Mitchell were among the defensive backs that recorded a pick, stepping up while the team’s interceptions leader Ayden Duncanson sat out with an injury.
The result of that game was a 17-9 victory over Temple, and once again, the Pirates could have built greater cushion with the offense. ECU is 94th in scoring offense (24.0 points per game) and 103rd in total offense (351 yards per game). In seven games against FBS opponents, the Pirates only reached 30 points at Memphis.
ECU has made adjustments, switching between quarterbacks Mitch Griffis and Emory Williams, but the passing game ranks 114th, and the Pirates have only seen two 200-yard passing performances all year (and one was against FCS NC Central). Griffis returned to the No. 1 role last week against Temple, and he unleashed some mobility in that game, posting 35 rushing yards.
TJ Engleman Jr. is the main source of offense for the Pirates. He has surpassed 90 rushing yards in each of his last six games, and his 689 yards are the third-most among American Conference running backs. Other skill position players ECU will turn to for an offensive spark include running back Ashton Gray and wide receivers Ray Ray Joseph and Landon Sides. Sides missed the first three games of the season but has excelled lately, producing 14 receptions for 188 yards and a touchdowns across his last two outings.
Prediction
South Florida and East Carolina have seen similar trajectories this season. Both offenses were dynamic last year, yet both were demolished by the transfer portal and are attempting to recover with a new coordinator and new starters. However, the defenses brought in new coordinators and remain just as dangerous, consistently challenging opponents and wreaking havoc in the abckfield.
Thus, this has all the makings of a low-scoring game. It should be a first-to-20-wins scenario at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, and a defensive touchdown could break out at any moment between these two teams that combine for five. USF has been the more consistent of the two defenses, and that consistency will travel to Greenville on Friday, allowing the Bulls to emerge in a close win.
Prediction: South Florida 20, East Carolina 16
