The winter meetings take place early next week and hopefully that forces more action in free agency. Dylan Cease got a massive contract from Toronto but there hasn’t been much else outside of a few relievers.
Who is going to sign Kyle Tucker?
Mets Off-season so far
This is a Phillies blog but it is always important to check on the other division rivals. The Braves, Marlins, and Nationals haven’t done much. The Braves re-signed Raisel Iglesias and replaced their shortstop who can’t hit, with another shortstop who can’t hit. The other two teams haven’t done anything.
The Mets on the other hand, have been very active to start the winter. They swapped bad contracts with the Rangers and then signed Devin Williams to an expensive three-year deal.
The Brandon Nimmo and Marcus Semien swap is going to be interesting down the line. It might look worse for the Mets on paper but I think they got the better end of the trade. Semien’s contract is only three years long and his defense at second base is a way better fit for this Mets roster.
The Mets pitching staff last season ranked first in groundball rate at 46.6% and are returning David Peterson, Clay Holmes while getting a full season with Nolan McLean. Francisco Lindor and Semien up the middle will make the infield defense way more competent and allows them to move Brett Baty back to third base full-time.
Nimmo was a productive hitter last year, hitting .262 with a 114 wRC+ in 2025 but there are some scary underlying issues. He’s had a declining xwOBA over the last two seasons, is 32, and is showing real physical decline already. His bat speed was a mile-per-hour worse, his sprint speed went down a tick, his arm got significantly worse, and he is no longer a positive defender.
With five more years left on his contract and the history of corner outfielders in their mid 30s, the Mets made a great decision in figuring out a way to move on.
Semien is 35 but is a way better athlete than Nimmo and has a higher floor because of his defense. He also only has three years left on his contract which will give the Mets more flexibility down the line.
Devin Williams had a 4.79 ERA but was able to sign a three-year $50 million contract and might be the closer for a different team in New York next season. Every New York reporter in the world is telling us the Mets are still open to re-signing Edwin Díaz but Williams would be insanely expensive as a set-up man. It’s safe to assume Díaz will be in a different uniform next season.
But the things might still have a lockdown closer after all. Williams did not have a good season results-wise last year but there are plenty of reasons to assume he bounces back. His strikeout rate was 34.7%, whiff rate was 37.7%, and had a 35% chase rate, all of those metrics ranked in the 97th percentile or better last season.
His fastball velocity was also normal, he averaged 94.2 mph in his last full-season as a reliever and 94.1 in 2025. There are no real signs he’s cooked.
The biggest issue was a slight uptick in home runs, which might play better in a bigger ballpark for half the season, and his left-on-base rate regressing to the mean.
In Williams first three seasons with 50+ innings pitched, his left on base rate was:
2021: 83.1%
2022: 76.8%
2023: 85.0%
In 2025, that number went down to 55.2%. Assuming a 20% increase, which would still be the lowest of any 50+ inning season of his career, would likely get his ERA to the low threes or high twos.
Prediction: Harrison Bader stays in the NL East
Both teams play in the same division, had dysfunctional center field issues for most of the season that had to be addressed at the trade deadline, and will look to a top prospect to help solve the 2026 issues.
Carson Benge is likely part of the Mets outfield plans next season but profiles more as a corner outfield option. Fangraphs gave his glove a 40/50 on the 20-80 scale, which might mean he’s not going to play a lot of center field in the majors. With Juan Soto and Benge left handed, it likely means they are looking for a right-handed center fielder.
Justin Crawford is likely part of the Phillies’ outfield plans next season. Crawford’s speed and bat questions make him a more suitable fit for center field, but he didn’t play great defense there in the minors. He might be primed to play left field in the major leagues with Brandon Marsh sliding to right field. With Crawford and Marsh being left-handed, it likely means they are looking for a right-handed center fielder.
What do both teams also have in common? Harrison Bader. Bader played for the Mets in 2024 during their trip to the NLCS and then was part of the Phillies for the final 2 months of 2025. He has a lot of experience with losing to the Dodgers in October.
Both of these teams have a massive need in center field and for that guy to be right-handed, while having the money to spend on him.
It’s a prediction and nothing more: Harrison Bader will sign with either the Philadelphia Phillies or New York Mets.
