The Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians are frequent trade partners – will they connect again this offseason?
In case you missed it, we are looking at potential trade partners and trade targets for the
Cleveland Guardians this offseason, so far having covered the Marlins, the Pirates and the Cardinals. Today, we consider potential deals with Cleveland’s fellow-small-market-smart-guys to the south. The Guardians and Rays have traded quite a bit over the past decade, sometimes with good results for Cleveland (Brandon Guyer and Kyle Manzardo) and sometimes disastrous results for the Guardians (Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero).
Trade One: Guardians trade Ralphy Velazquez, LHH 1B/OF to the Rays for Yandy Diaz, RHH 34 year-old, DH/1B (owed $9M for 2026 then a $13M club option for 2027 vests if he gets 500 plate appearances)
Analysis: Let me begin by saying I don’t want to trade Velazquez. I have included him in a couple potential trades because you have to give value to get good value, and Velazquez still has some risk to his profile and MAY be limited to first base defensively (though, so far, he does look viable in a corner outfield spot). Diaz is coming off a 135 wRC+ season and since he arrived in Tampa Bay in 2019, he has been the fourth best right-handed hitter in MLB with a 133 wRC+. He was near career highs in bat speed and hard-hit rate in 2025, so, while he IS 34 years old, I think teams will value him as a middle-of-the-order hitter available for 2 more seasons for a very reasonable amount. Thus why I think the Guardians would have to give up a prospect like Velazquez to get him. Perhaps the Guardians could convince Tampa to take prospects further from the majors (players like Dauri Fernandez and Josh Hartle), but if they want a long-awaited reunion with Diaz, it will cost them, that’s for certain. The primary downside – aside from Diaz’s age – is that he is a very poor defender at first base, so much so that Kyle Manzardo would become the team’s primary option in the field. Maybe Manzardo’s ankle was hampering him last year and he can improve… but I am not sure that is a tenable option. Like most right-handed hitters, Diaz’s homer numbers look to decrease at Progressive Field (about two fewer per season here), but his raw power likely means the vast majority of those batted balls would still be doubles.
Trade Two: Guardians trade Angel Genao, SH IF to the Rays for Brandon Lowe, 31 year-old LHH 2B, free agent in 2026 (owed $11.5M)
Analysis: Lowe has a career 123 wRC+ and, while last year was a bit down from that, he still had a .347 xwOBA. Lowe is not a good second baseman defensively, but he can hang out there, or play left field and even has 155 uneventful innings at first base in the big leagues. For his career, Lowe has a 92 wRC+ against LHP but a 133 wRC+ against RHP, so, while he doesn’t help the team against southpaws much, he’s the kind of hitter for whom you make that trade-off. Given that this is for one year of Lowe, again, I think the Guardians may be able to put together a package of prospects who are further away from the big leagues for him… but I decided that a bidding war might cause them to have to include Genao here. There are some significant doubts about Genao as a hitter, still, but there is risk that he could put it all together and become a big league starter at short. This is often the kind of risk a team has to take to acquire a legit middle-of-the-order bat, however. Lowe is one of the few lefties whose power plays down at Progressive (he’s projected to have hit about 1.5 fewer homers per year for his career had it been spent in Cleveland).
Trade Three: Guardians trade Johnathan Rodriguez, RHH DH/RF and Jake Miller, RHP to the Rays for Christopher Morel, 26 year-old, RHH OF (under team control through 2028) (power plays well at Progressive Field).
Analysis: I considered Pete Fairbanks as the third trade option, but he is due $12M and I don’t think the Guardians are going to give up the necessary assets while taking on that money, like a larger market team will do. Let me be clear about Morel: there is no guarantee he is better than Jhonkensy Noel. But, Morel does have a full season of a 120 wRC+ with 26 homers in 2023. He’s been pretty bad since being traded to Tampa and doesn’t have a clear defensive home. Morel has a career 99 wRC+ with a 30/9 K/BB%. However, he is one of the few right-handed hitters whom the stats say would have an increase in power at Progressive Field (his total career homers would be boosted by 5 in Cleveland). And, his 90 wRC+ against LHP seems unsustainably low… but there is fixing to be done there, and I don’t know why anyone would have confidence in the Guardians to do it. But, there it is… if they like how his right-handed power plays here, they might see if his 2023 can return, especially if all hope is lost for Noel in the Guardians’ eyes.
There isn’t a perfect fit here, but I do think the Diaz and Lowe options are worth considering for the Guardians. Diaz’s career 150 wRC+ vs LHP is especially enticing. We will see if the Guardians and Rays do a trade tango again as the winter continues.
