The Baltimore Orioles have already impacted the offseason of the Cincinnati Reds in immeasurable ways. As the bidding became fierce over Kyle Schwarber, rumor has it the Orioles were the club who pushed the bidding all the way to $150 million, effectively pricing out the Reds and leaving only the Philadelphia Phillies – to whom Schwarber returned – left to flex enough financial might to equal the bidding.
Baltimore clearly was in pursuit of a high-profile slugger to help anchor their burgeoning lineup,
and yesterday found just that in the form of Pete Alonso, who agreed to a 5-year, $155 million deal eerily similar to the one Schwarber signed one day prior. That’s all to help bolster a ball club not too far removed from a 101 win season (2023) and a playoff appearance in 2024…though also a club that slipped to just 75 wins in a last-place finish last season.
It’s yet another devastating bat in a lineup that already features the likes of Gunnar Henderson, Taylor Ward, Tyler O’Neill, Jackson Holliday, Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg, and Colton Cowser. That’s before you even get to stud prospect Samuel Basallo and former 1st round picks Dylan Beavers and Heston Kjerstad.
What Alonso’s addition doesn’t do, however, is address the team’s dearth of starting pitching. Last year, the club ranked 24th overall in ERA by their collective starters (4.65), while ranking 25th in both xERA and FIP. They’ve since dealt away former top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez (to acquire Ward from the Angels), while each of Kyle Bradish (Tommy John), Dean Kremer (forearm), Tyler Wells (UCL internal brace), and Cade Povich (hip) sit high on their depth chart despite injuries sidelining them all for extended periods in 2025.
Adding Alonso also doesn’t somehow ‘unlock’ the roster the O’s already have in place. In Basallo and Rutschman, the club has two potential star catchers who also carry bats worth having in the lineup more than just every other day, meaning DH reps probably need to be reserved for those two. The same could be said for O’Neill, whose own injury history means he’s probably better suited getting days off out of the OF (but still in the lineup), and Baltimore’s only a year removed from doling out nearly $50 million to make him a key part of their lineup.
So, this is a Baltimore club that a) is clearly very ambitious, b) still needs SP something fierce after already throwing a ton of money elsewhere, and c) has created a logjam in their lineup – and I haven’t even mentioned primary 1B options from 2025 in Coby Mayo and Ryan Mountcastle.
On paper, at least, it sure would appear the Cincinnati Reds match up well with Baltimore for a potential deal.
Cincinnati boasts SP options that are the envy of most of baseball, from Hunter Greene and All-Star Andrew Abbott to the likes of Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer, Chase Burns, Rhett Lowder, and Brandon Williamson, and that’s without even getting to prospect Chase Petty (who is still just 22 years old). It’s a bunch that runs the gamut from Singer (set to earn over $11 million in his final year of control before free agency), to Lowder/Burns (pre-arb former top prospects controlled through 2030 and 2031, respectively), to Greene (a bone fide ace locked up to a team friendly deal through 2029), with each boasting both draft, prospect, and big league performance pedigrees.
That’s a similar story for much of Baltimore’s glut, too. Mayo, for instance, comes with team control through 2031 with the rep of being a consensus Top 30 overall prospect at 24, though he’s struggled so far in his limited work in the bigs (79 OPS+ in 340 PA across 2024-2025). Mountcastle, meanwhile, has a 33-dinger season under his belt (back in 2021) and just a lone season of control before free agency, but he’s seen his performance dip year after year since that breakout – and he hit just .250/.286/.367 (83 OPS+) with 7 dingers last year. Then there’s Kjerstad, who fell completely apart last year while fighting a still-undisclosed medical issue, yet is a former 1st round pick and top prospect despite being jumped on the depth chart by the likes of Cowser and Beavers.
Much like how the Reds have built their own offense, there’s a ton of overlap with what Baltimore has at the moment, meaning they’ve got the ability to deal just about any of their corps in the right deal for the right pitcher. All of that, of course, comes into play because Pete Alonso is now going to be in the lineup close to 160 times as either the 1B or the DH, and that’s the most certain thing the club has going for it right now.
The Reds don’t have that anchor, with Baltimore’s fuel on the Schwarber bidding fire pushing them into reaction mode. The Reds do have pitching they can deal, though, and it’s now a pretty obvious wonder whether Baltimore has baked up precisely the right scenario for a deal between the two, a need-for-need for two clubs hungry for 2026 playoff action that seems a little too hard to ignore.
