There was plenty of reason to express some doubt over the Kentucky build last year. They went heavy on experience, had no real playmakers, and were limited in ball handlers.
But the Wildcats acquitted themselves very well in Mark Pope’s first season, and exceeded most of the modest expectations. Early on they beat Duke and Gonzaga, plus rival Louisville. They opened SEC play with an exhilarating 106-100 win over eventual champion Florida, but then the rope began to slip a bit. The strength and depth
of the SEC, plus some injuries to a roster with questionable depth, left the Wildcats at just 4-5 in league play. But they managed a 6-3 finish, and through the strength of their non-conference wins and the depth of the SEC they landed a 3 seed.
The 3 seed was the same result as the year before but if you ask Kentucky fans I’m sure they’d tell you it was a breath of fresh air. Pope just wasn’t John Calipari, as the relationship between Cal and UK fans had grown strained. The tension was felt through all corners of the program, and even positive results were met with a dose of agnosticism about the health and future of Kentucky basketball under Cal.
The end result was a Sweet 16 in year one, 24 wins, and a fresh outlook.
Now the Wildcats boast one of College Basketball’s top payrolls, expectations have been raised. And the excitement around the fan base is palpable.
Previous SEC Previews:
- 4. Tennessee Volunteers, 12-6
- 5. Alabama Crimson Tide, 11-7
- 6. Missouri Tigers 11-7
- 7. Auburn Tigers, 9-9
- 8. Texas Longhorns, 9-9
- 9. Mississippi State Bulldogs, 8-10
- 10. Vanderbilt Commodores, 8-10
- 11. Texas A&M Aggies, 8-10
- 12. Oklahoma Sooners, 8-10
- 13. Ole Miss Rebels, 7-11
- 14. Georgia Bulldogs, 6-12
- 15. South Carolina Gamecocks, 4-14
- 16. LSU Tigers, 3-15
Kentucky Wildcats
- Last season: 24 – 12 (10-8 in conference) #16
- The Masses Prediction: 3rd in conference, 12.5 – 5.5
- SEC Media Pick: 2nd in conference
- Analytics Average: 2nd in conference, 6th overall
HEAD COACH: Mark Pope | 2nd Season, 24-12
When Mark Pope took the job, Kentucky had already offered its head coaching position to multiple others and been turned down. But for any coach who was considering the move, nobody wanted it more than Pope. The connection from his playing days, and the earnestness with which he accepted the role, and the mantle of being the head coach of a program like Kentucky, was enough to woo ‘Cats fans to his side early.
But then he went and did things that Calipari hadn’t done in several years: he won early season non-conference games against elite competition. The last Quad 1 win in November Kentucky had before beating Duke last year was in 2019 when Tyrese Maxey dropped in 26 points to take down Michigan State.
There is a different energy with Mark Pope that didn’t exist in the later years of Calipari’s tenure. That’s a testament to the pressures of a job like UK, despite running the SEC for years and roping in a National Championship, Cal was unsettled for most of the years post-COVID. Pope has fully embraced the new era of the transfer portal, combining Kentucky’s natural ability to lure in elite high school players by also being a prime destination for those looking to transfer.
Now comes the important step of putting it all together.
Kentucky’s win total wasn’t all that different over what Calipari had produced in his last few years, but again that’s a testament to the quality of the SEC. What might hold more value is preseason the Wildcats were projected to finish 43rd by KenPom, and they would finish 16th. Only once in the last 7 years did a Calipari team exceed its preseason KenPom ranking, and that was in 2022 when Kentucky lost to Saint Peters in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Showing that even when things went well they were still going wrong.
One thing to keep an eye on is if Pope can steer the program back towards the top of the height of the Calipari days when Kentucky was routinely dominating the SEC. The league is much better and much deeper than those days. And whether it’s possible to exert that level of dominance is in question. Then also how does that play with a fan base as passionate and also as impatient as anywhere in College Basketball.
LOST PRODUCTION
7th in % minutes, 69.52% | 8th in % points, 69.24% | 4th in % possessions, 67.65%
Kentucky went heavy on experienced portal additions to fix any of their roster holes a season ago, in turn they’re turning over a healthy portion of the roster. But it would be hard to argue the results weren’t positive as guys like Lamont Butler, Amari Williams, Andrew Carr, Jaxson Robinson, and Kobe Brea will all be looked fondly upon for their efforts in sustaining the UK brand.
But Pope was smart enough to lure in some non-seniors to patch holes as well, and because Kentucky has the ability to pay above and beyond what some others might, there was no risk to losing anyone to transfer they didn’t want to keep.
Three teams return All SEC players from last years end of season vote, Mississippi State’s Josh Hubbard, Missouri’s Mark Mitchell, and Kentucky’s Otega Oweh. After transferring from Oklahoma, Oweh’s brand of relentless offensive attacking translated well for a team in need of athleticism on the wing. Mark Pope’s first portal build involved a lot of players known for a higher skill level, but not necessarily a ton of athleticism, save for Oweh. His point production made the leap from 11.4 points per game to 16.2 last season, and he did so while upping his minutes played and his efficiency. The first 26 games of the season Oweh scored in double figures, it took a loss at Alabama before that streak was broken. The rest of the roster is build with far more athleticism, which should take some pressure of Oweh to be as good every night, but he’s still the odds on favorite to be the SEC player of the year.
Pope also returns backup post Brandon Garrison, a former McDonalds All American still putting it together offensively, plus Trent Noah and Collin Chandler. Chandler has the higher upside as an athletic combo guard, if he can get the shooting piece to be consistent. Noah is a stout and physical wing who can be a quality reserve.
Kentucky won the sweepstakes for Jayden Quaintance, the freakishly athletic young forward who is still just figuring out how good he can really be. JQ is still dealing with the recovery of an ACL tear, and losing any development time isn’t a good thing, but he’s listed at 6’10 and a half but he sports a 7’5” wingspan and was already a defensive menace for Arizona State last year. Playing basketball looks effortless for him, so if he’s able to acclimate quickly he’ll be a gigantic boost.
Pope again didn’t go deep on the point guards choosing to load up on combo guards with size, and then Pitt transfer Jaland Lowe. Last season for Pitt, Lowe was a pretty inefficient scorer on a team that struggle to score. But one area he was excellent in was getting to the free throw line, where he had a free throw rate of 37.6% and made 88% from the charity stripe.
Quaintance being out early should open up a path to big minutes for Alabama transfer Mohamed Dioubate, one of the better defenders in the league last year, Dioubate has been a reserve for two years under Nate Oats. Kentucky also added Florida transfer Denzel Aberdeen, plucking two quality rotational players from conference foes. Aberdeen’s season was spent backing up the Gators quality back court, but he started 5 games during a stretch where Alijah Martin was injured and Florida went 5-0. During that stretch Aberdeen more than equalled Martin’s output by averaging 14.4 points while shooting 41.4% from three. Kentucky is hoping for a similar result over longer haul.
There’s also a question over how UK will use their high level freshmen, Jasper Johnson and Malachi Moreno. Johnson is a hot shooting combo guard with a huge ceiling as a shot creator, and Moreno is a sturdy center without a ton of athleticism, but the skill level is excellent. Both players should factor into the rotation.
There is some question what the ‘Cats will get from Croatian power forward Andrija Jelavić as the international prospects are still relatively new to college basketball. But Jelavić is a bit more advanced in his age at 21 already, and averaged over 10 ppg in the Adriatic League. For context Tyler Wahl, a former Wisconsin forward averaged 10.4 ppg in the Adriatic league last year as well. His final year in Madison was in 2023-24 and he averaged 10.6 ppg for the Badgers.
Five Quad One games to start is a good way to handle your non-conference. It’s also good to see Pope restoring the fantastic Indiana-Kentucky rivalry. There are certain games which just should be played, and IU-UK is one of them. The Louisville game should’ve been later, like usual, but instead it’s November 11th. Weirdly enough that’s before UK and UofL play their annual football game. But the UNC game, the Gonzaga game, and the St. John’s game should all be incredibly telling. We’ll know a lot about Kentucky well before the conference season hits.
And just for fun, Kentucky gets one of the tougher conference schedules. The best team in the league (projected) and the 3rd best team in the league (projected) each get home and homes with the Wildcats. Then they get #4, #5, and #6 on the road. The home slate is manageable with Missouri and MSU being the toughest matchups. And both are early.
THE RULING
It would be easier to look at the Wildcats as a potential title contender if Mark Pope had invested in just a touch more ball handling, and guard play.
Jaland Lowe has already suffered a shoulder injury, which is the same body part which kept Lamont Butler out of 9 games, and limited in others last year. Butler was imported to be one of the primary ball-handlers, and even he was left on a bit of an island when Kerr Kriisa got hurt early in the season as well. So Lowe is important for the playmaking ability of Kentucky’s ball handlers.
If you want shooting, the ‘Cats have shooting. If you want size, they have size.
Last year the defense was one of the areas where Kentucky struggled to compete. They were 51st overall in defensive efficiency, and 13th in the conference. This year they have the length and athleticism to be an elite defensive team.
The only question is if Mark Pope is the sort of coach who is going to field an elite defense? He hasn’t done it to date, at BYU his teams were far more offensive minded. He regularly fielded elite offensive teams who shot a healthy amount of three pointers. But Pope has also shown flexibility with this teams offensively. If they didn’t have the shooting (see his 2023 team), they found ways to be competitive… they defended.
Quaintance is a big key, and also a big question mark. He’s an impactful talent who can change the way Kentucky defends multiple spots on the floor. He’s so fluid and athletic he can defend anyone. If he’s ready, he can be the one player who completely changes the math for the Wildcats on both sides of the ball.
Beyond the depth and the talent, there might still be a few questions about who is going to be the top guy. Oweh was that last season, he can be that again. But this year if he’s having an off night, there are going to be more options to take over, beyond guys who can make guarded threes. The roster is deep, and the collection of talent is impressive. There is zero reason to expect this team to be anything other than really good. The main question is how good can they be? Can they be elite together? That’s all that’s left.
My Results: Kentucky Wildcats — 3rd in conference, 13-5
About the preview: a number of respected basketball bloggers were asked to submit one pick for the entire league schedule game by game. The game by game option allows us to account for the unbalanced schedule when addressing any kind of power rankings. Each set of picks are reflected in “the Masses” picks. Included in “the Masses” are various SEC media members who made picks at my request, as well as additional credit given to the analytics projections.
If you’d like to submit your picks, click here for the Google Form we used. If you want to know your results, send me an email.
Additionally, instead of relying solely on KenPom.com for the analytics site projections, we’re taking the average of the four main sites (EvanMiya.com, BartTorvik.com, Haslametrics.com, and KenPom.com) to give a closer consensus picture. These are weighted a touch for reliability.
The projections: This is new! In an attempt to be as accurate as we could be we increased the amount of analytics used to make individual projections which influenced how these teams slotted in order. Matt Watkins used an in-depth method for projecting the entire SEC transfer list, we then mixed in EvanMiya.com’s BPR projections, and BartTorvik.com’s preseason individual projections to round out the expected production based upon how each coach routinely uses his rotations.
GLOSSARY
* – an asterisk denotes a known walk-on player
GP – Games Played
%min – percentage of total available minutes played, does not account for time missed due to injury
%poss – percentage of team possessions the player is responsible for ending a possession, whether by making a shot, missing a shot not rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover. For returning players this is noted as a percentage of total team possessions. For newcomers it was total possessions when that player was on the floor, better known as Usage Rate.
ORtg – Offensive Rating, similar to a points per possession but averaged out over 100 possessions. So it’s how many points a player would score if they were responsible for 100 possessions.
BPR – Bayseian Performance Rating, a single player efficiency metric created by Evan Miyakawa to determine both offensive and defensive impact when a player is on the floor.
PAR – Points Above Replacement, a Rock M+ proprietary rating measuring projected on-off impact adjusted for time on the floor.
PPG – Points Per Game, RPG – Rebounds Per Game, APG – Assists Per Game: All traditional statistics used to measure player production.
For newcomer player rankings, we used EvanMiya.com’ s rankings for transfers, and 247sports.com ‘s Composite Rating for Freshmen and Junior College signees.
