The Carolina Panthers put 30 points on the board this past weekend, but that probably overstates the effectiveness of the offense. Bryce Young and company only averaged 4.1 yards per play, which was below their season average to that point and dropped the Panthers to 30th in the stat for the season. The Falcons have had a good defense so far, and the offense was playing from ahead and trying to grind clock, so that can be explained away a bit, but it’s something to keep an eye on.
This weekend provides
an opportunity to push the offense and show that it has more pop than it’s shown so far this season. The New England Patriots are 1-2 and searching for their first home win. They’re coming off a good defensive outing against the corpse of Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers, but in the first two weeks they were relatively soft. In total, they’ve allowed 5.8 yards per play, seventh worst in the league, and they rank 27th in defensive DVOA.
That makes this weekend a battle between two units that have underwhelmed thus far. It’s a bad Panthers offense versus a bad Patriots defense. One of those units is going to come away from this weekend feeling better about where they’re at. Here’s what the Panthers can do to make sure it’s them.
- Don’t get hung up on establishing the run. Again, this might seem like a bad idea given the health of Carolina’s offensive line and receivers, but you’ve got to know who your opponent is. The Patriots have been stout at stopping the run despite their generally bad defense. All three opposing starting running backs, Ashton Jeanty, De’Von Achane, and Jaylen Warren, averaged fewer than three yards per carry in their games against the Patriots. Meanwhile, Geno Smith and Tua Tagovailoa both averaged around 10 yards per pass attempt. Everyone wants to establish the run and assert their dominance, but the Patriots have been significantly more susceptible through the air, even against questionable passing offenses. The Panthers are probably going to need to lean on their own questionable passing offense.
- Generate some explosive plays. The Panthers’ longest play against the Falcons went for 23 yards; it was the wheel route to Tetairoa McMillan on fourth down of the team’s opening drive. The team has been grinding out drives, which is a hard way to survive on a consistent basis. There are injury issues along the offensive line and in the wide receiving group, but the Panthers can still be aggressive if they trust Bryce Young to do so. This Patriots defense has been susceptible to chunk plays in the season’s early going. Tua and Geno combined to go 8-of-10 for 212 yards and a touchdown on balls thrown over 20 yards in the air. Rodgers didn’t throw the ball down the field much but both of his touchdowns came on balls thrown about 15 yards down field. The Panthers need to chase those big plays through the air.
- In conjunction with that, keep Bryce Young protected. For as bad as the Patriots defense has been in coverage, they’ve actually been okay at getting pressure on the quarterback. Harold Landry III and former Panthers great K’Lavon Chaisson are both top 20 for edge rushers in ESPN’s pass rush win rate. Almost Panther Milton Williams rank first in that metric for interior defensive linemen. In all, the Patriots rank tenth in total pass rush win rate, which is somewhat concerning for a beat up offensive line that has been shaky in pass protection.
