#4 Minnesota Golden Gophers vs #13 Green Bay Phoenix Preview

The Minnesota Golden Gophers women’s basketball team is back in the NCAA Tournament for the first tie since 2018 and is hosting the First and Second Rounds at Williams Arena for the first time since 2005 this weekend. First up is a matchup against the #13 seeded Green Bay Phoenix at 5 PM on ESPNU. I

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The Minnesota Golden Gophers women’s basketball team is back in the NCAA Tournament for the first tie since 2018 and is hosting the First and Second Rounds at Williams Arena for the first time since 2005 this weekend. First up is a matchup against the #13 seeded Green Bay Phoenix at 5 PM on ESPNU. If the Gophers advance, they would face the winner of #5 Ole Miss against #12 Gonzaga on Sunday in the Second Round. But Green Bay should be a formidable opponent having been a regular participant in the NCAA Tournament over

the last 30 years. Green Bay will be making their 21st NCAA Tournament appearance dating back to 1993, while the Gophers are in the Big Dance for only the 11th time in program history this weekend.

The Gophers completed the regular season with a 22-8 record and a 13-5 record in Big Ten play. They were the #4 seed in the Big Ten Tournament and dropped their opener to Ohio State. But, they Gophers had done enough in the regular season to remain on the 4 seed line when the NCAA announced the brackets last Sunday and got the honor to host the First and Second Rounds at Williams Arena for the first time since 2005. The Gophers in 2005 would win both games as the #3 seed defeating St. Francis in the opening round before toppling Virginia in the second round to make it to the Sweet Sixteen. There the Gophers run ended with a loss to #2 seed Baylor in Tempe, Arizona.

To make a similar run and spend next weekend in Sacramento, the Gopher are going to need to do what got them here successfully. The Gophers need to play elite on and off-ball defense, they need to protect the ball on offense and not commit careless turnovers. They need to work the ball inside of Sophie Hart and Finau Tonga and work an inside-out game getting open shooting opportunities for Grace Grocholski, Mara Braun, Amaya Battle and Tori McKinney. They need to rule the boards and maximize second chance opportunities. If they don’t—there will not be a second chance.

Minnesota kills teams with their spread scoring ability. On any given night the Gophers could have any of their five starters put up 20+ points. All five average double figures heading into Friday’s game. McKinney leads the way with 13.1 points per game, followed by Grocholski with 12.7, Braun with 11.5 and Hart and Battle each with 10.9 points. The Gophers as a team have been excellent at making sure the ball gets moved, but only to their own teammates. They rank fourth in the country in assist/turnover ration at 1.51. Their 10.9 turnovers per game also rank fourth in the country. They play solid defense. Minnesota allows just 57.9 points per game, ranking them second in the Big Ten and 30th in the nation. When the shots are falling, they can score. The Gophers average 74.9 points per game. Their 17 point scoring margin is the 18th-best mark in the country. Play smart basketball, make shots, rebound your misses and advance. It sounds so simple, but its not.

Green Bay enters their 21st NCAA Tournament in school history on a role. The Phoenix won the Horizon League Tournament for the third year in a row defeating Youngstown State 57-49. For the second consecutive season they won both the Regular Season and Tournament Championship. The Phoenix also play smart basketball. Green Bay is 13th per game in assist/turnover ratio (1.34), 17th in assists per game (17.3), 31st in fewest turnovers per game (12.9), 35th in defensive rebounds per game (28.0), 36th in field goal percentage allowed (37.2 percent), 46th in winning percentage (75.8 percent), 47th in scoring defense (58.6), and 50th in field goal percentage (44.5 percent). Now obviously their strength of schedule is not like the Gophers have seen, but there have been several mutual opponents this season between the two squads. Green Bay went 1-2 against common opponents defeating North Dakota 6043 before losing to Wisconsin 76-72 and Washington 79-74. The Gophers were 3-1 against those same opponents defeating North Dakota 91-47, and sweeping Wisconsin 88-53 and 83-60. Minnesota lost at Washington 67-54 but was missing Tori McKinney in that game.

Minnesota will need to try and slow down Horizon League Player of the Year Jenna Guyer. The 5th year player from Centennial High School is 6’2 and had a career year She leads the Phoenix averaging 15.1 points per game and adds six rebounds a game. She’s shooting 46% from the field and 39% from three. Likely will be McKinney’s matchup on defense. They have more size up front in sophomore 6’4 center Meghan Schultz who is scoring 12.5 points a game on 56% shooting. Their third player to watch will be 5’8 senior guard Maddy Skorupski. She’s averaging 11 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 2.2 steals a game shooting 37.3 percent from three. Likely either Amaya Battle or Mara Braun will draw the assignment to guard her. Green Bay has nine different players who average 10 or more minutes per game, so they likely will try and draw the Gophers into foul trouble or try and out run them with their extra legs.

Green Bay shoots approximately a third of their shots from beyond the arc and is hitting 33% on the season. They only outrebound the opponents by 1.4 per game, where the Gophers outrebound their opponents by nearly eight per game. If Minnesota can neutralize the three point shooting and rebound as they normally do, this game should hopefully mimic the 22 point spread that Las Vegas has put on the game in Minnesota’s favor.

There will definitely be some familiarity in the coaching matchup as well. Green Bay head coach Kayla Karius was on Dawn Plitzuweit’s staff at South Dakota as her recruiting coordinator and assistant coach. She said in her pre-tournament press conference that she thinks the Gophers and Phoenix play a similar style of basketball due to things she learned from Plitzuweit. Dawn agreed in her comments earlier on Thursday. “Our first round opponent in Green Bay is a very familiar team in a lot of ways to us, but certainly an opponent that we respect at an incredibly, incredibly high level. I think their toughness, the way that they defend, their physicality, their discipline, the way they take care of the ball, the way they share the ball, the way they have I think everybody on their team post up in different scenarios is something that is just, I think it speaks volumes of their program and of how well they’re coached and the toughness that their players play with.” Plitzuweit was a former Green Bay assistant coach from 1998 through 2002 under former Phoenix head coach Kevin Borseth and Karius was recruited but never played for Borseth at her time in Green Bay. The links run deep.

All-time the two schools have met fifteen times with the Gophers leading the all-time series against Green Bay, 9-6. Seven of those contests have taken place at Williams Arena, where Minnesota holds a 5-2 advantage. The teams have met once in the NCAA Tournament in 2018 where the Gophers defeated Green Bay 89-77 in the First Round in Eugene, Oregon behind 26 total points from Kanisha Bell.

Minnesota is 12-10 all-time in the NCAA Tournament with their last appearance in 2018 that included the win of Green Bay and a loss to Oregon. Green Bay is 6-20 all-time in the NCAA Tournament with their last win coming in 2012 against #10 Iowa State by a score of 71-57. The Phoenix is 0-8 in the Big Dance since, most recently falling a season ago 81-67 to #5-seeded Alabama.

#5 Ole Miss vs #12 Gonzaga

The first game at Williams Arena on Friday tips off at 2:30 on ESPN2 with the Ole Miss Rebels taking on the Gonzaga Bulldogs. The Rebels are 13.5 point favorites over Gonzaga. Ole Miss finished in a four way tie for 6th place in the SEC at 8-8 and made it to the SEC Tournament Semifinals before falling to Texas. Gonzaga won the West Coast Conference Tournament over Oregon State to earn the autobid.

The two winners will advance to face one another on Sunday as a time to be determined at the completion of Friday’s NCAA Tournament games.