As of this morning, the NCAA hockey tournament picture looks like this, with projected conference tournament winners in italics:
Locks (12): Michigan, North Dakota, Michigan State, Western Michigan, Providence, Denver, Quinnipiac, Minnesota-Duluth, Cornell, Penn State, Dartmouth, Wisconsin
Bubble In (3): Augustana, UMass, UConn
Automatic Qualifiers (1): Bentley
My projected bracket looks like this:
Worcester Regional
- Michigan vs. Bentley
- Minnesota-Duluth vs. Cornell
Loveland Regional
- Western Michigan vs. Augustana
- Denver vs. Dartmouth
Sioux Falls Regional
- North Dakota vs. UConn
- Quinnipiac vs. Penn State
Albany Regional
- Michigan State vs. UMass
- Providence vs. Wisconsin
Some things to note here:
- No. 15 is currently the cutoff for an at-large bid, as the AHA champion is guaranteed to fall outside of the top 16. Bid thieves are still possible in the ECAC, Hockey East, CCHA, and Big Ten. All four teams remaining in the NCHC tournament are locked into their NCAA Tournament spots.
- UMass has surged into an at-large spot with wins over Boston College and New Hampshire last weekend. UConn also jumped back into the bracket after being on the outside looking in last week. Both teams are on opposite sides of the bracket in the Hockey East Tournament. If UConn and UMass meet in the conference championship, they are both likely to make the NCAA Tournament.
- The No. 1 overall seed is a three-man race with Michigan, North Dakota, and Michigan State. All three teams have a roughly equal chance of earning the top spot in the tournament entering this weekend’s games.
Key Games This Weekend
CCHA Semifinals
No. 13 Augustana vs. No. 16 St. Thomas- Saturday at 5pm
No. 19 Michigan Tech vs. No. 17 Minnesota State- Saturday at 8pm
- Augustana is the only team left in the CCHA that can realistically get an at-large berth, but it is only a possibility if they beat St. Thomas on Saturday. If the Vikings fall, the CCHA is a one-bid league, a welcome sign for the two Hockey East bubble teams.
Hockey East Quarterfinals
No. 20 Maine vs. No. 18 Boston College- Friday (7pm on ESPN+)
No. 25 Boston University vs. No. 15 UConn- Saturday (1pm on ESPN+)
No. 24 Northeastern vs. No. 14 UMass- Saturday (4pm on ESPN+)
Merrimack vs. No. 5 Providence- Saturday (7pm on ESPN+)
- With Providence, UConn, and UMass as the only at-large candidates remaining from the Hockey East, a bid thief is still a possibility for this conference. The picture will be clearer after Saturday.
ECAC Quarterfinals
Harvard at No. 9 Cornell- Friday (7pm on ESPN+) and Saturday (7pm on ESPN+)
Colgate at No. 11 Dartmouth- Friday (7pm on ESPN+) and Saturday (7pm on ESPN+)
Clarkson at No. 7 Quinnipiac- Friday (7pm on ESPN+) and Saturday (4pm on ESPN+)
Union at Princeton- Friday (7pm on ESPN+) and Saturday (7pm on ESPN+)
- Cornell, Dartmouth, and Quinnipiac are all safely in the NCAA Tournament field but still have seeding to play for. The quarterfinals of the ECAC tournament are best-of-3 series. If necessary, a third game in a series will be played on Sunday.
Big Ten Semifinals
No. 10 Penn State at No. 1 Michigan- Saturday (5pm on Big Ten Network)
No. 22 Ohio State at No. 3 Michigan State- Saturday (7:30pm on Big Ten Network)
- Should Michigan State take care of business on Saturday, there will not be a bid thief from the Big Ten. Michigan and Michigan State are in the running for the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament and will likely need to win to stay in the race.
NCHC Semifinals
No. 4 Western Michigan at No. 6 Denver- Saturday at 8pm
No. 8 Minnesota-Duluth at No. 2 North Dakota- Saturday at 7pm
- All four of these teams are locked in the NCAA Tournament. North Dakota needs to beat Minnesota-Duluth to stay alive for the overall No. 1 seed. Western Michigan (1 seed) and Denver (2 seed) are locked on their seed lines. Minnesota-Duluth will likely fall to the 3 line with a loss to North Dakota, but a win would keep them as a 2 seed.
