The second weekend of the NCAA Tournament is upon us, with the final 16 teams doing battle with sights set on a Final Four. The Michigan Wolverines sit atop six teams from the Big Ten that still has a shot at winning a national championship.
As action gets started on Thursday night, let’s make a couple bold predictions about how the rest of the tournament will pan out.
No. 3 Illinois makes the Final Four (+210)
In the first rendition of this series, I made the prediction that Illinois would make the Elite Eight at +135, After Florida got knocked
out of the tournament, and with the Big Ten’s really strong play so far this tournament, I’m willing to double-down and expand on it to say the Illini will be one of the final teams standing.
They have a tough test with Houston ahead, but the first weekend could not have looked much smoother for Brad Underwood’s squad. They beat Penn by 35 and followed that with a 21-point drubbing of VCU.
Everyone will talk about Keaton Wagler, but fellow freshman David Mirkovic has taken his game to another level. He scored 29 points and had 17 rebounds against Penn, and has scored 19+ points in four of their last five games. Illinois is looking more balanced than it has all season, with scoring outputs coming from those two and junior guard Andrej Stojakovic.
Houston has been equally as fantastic, allowing just 104 points through the first two games of the tournament and winning by 30+ points in each game. But how long can the Cougars hold the No. 2 offense on KenPom from scoring? They’re not built for comebacks and if the Illini extend a lead, they’ll likely keep it for the game. That said, this game is in Houston, so it will be essentially be a home game for the Cougars. The spread is only 3.5 points, which is generally what books account for in home games. I think it’s much closer to a pick ‘em and I’ve already put 2 units on Illinois to cover.
In the next round, Iowa or Nebraska awaits. Illinois split the season series with Nebraska and beat Iowa in Iowa City during the regular season. The three-point December loss to the Huskers came because of 32 points from Pryce Sandfort who is off to a heck of a run to start this tournament. But Nebraska has gotten a lot of what it wanted out of this tournament — the program’s first tournament win and Sweet Sixteen appearance. How much do they have left in the tank? Especially after a highly emotional rivalry game vs Iowa if they do wind up on top.
No. 4 Arkansas tops No. 1 Arizona in the West (+310)
The Razorbacks were one of my favorite teams to pick to have a deep run when filling out brackets, and so far they’re proving me right. That’s because of superb play from the man I consider to be the best scorer in college basketball — Darius Acuff.
Acuff scored 36 against High Point and 24 against Hawaii in the opening game, but that stretch of high octane offense goes back a few weeks. In his last 15 games, Acuff is averaging more than 27.5 points per game and has five performances scoring more than 30 points to just one game where he dropped less than 20. This guy is on another level right now.
Arizona is maybe the deepest team in college basketball, so it can and should continuously throw fresh legs at Acuff. But the majority of the Wildcats’ talent is in the front court, which could create some matchup nightmares if any of their guards get into foul trouble. The same is true vice-versa — Arkansas’ bigs can’t get into foul trouble or the Wildcats will just pound the paint all game long.
This is my favorite matchup of the Sweet Sixteen because there are so many possibilities, and a college basketball legend could be born if Acuff continues this absurd streak he is on. The Razorbacks are 8.5-point dogs, and I’ve already sprinkled a few on them to cover. I’m waiting to see what happens with the line, but I could easily see myself throwing a half unit on them to win outright as well.
