It wasn’t so long ago that Jonathan Taylor was the front runner for Offensive Player of the Year and a sleeper pick for MVP despite being a Running Back. But the past month has done him no favors in his candidacy for either award. In his 4 games since the Bye Week, Taylor’s stats have regressed significantly.
- 83 Carries
- 304 Rushing Yards
- 3.7 Yards Per Carry
- 1 Rushing TD
- 12 Targets
- 8 Catches
- 58 Receiving Yards
- 1 Fumble
While that is still a 1,292 Rushing Yard full season pace, the
lack of scoring and the inefficient rushing make it a far cry from what Taylor was producing early on. What caused this drop off in production? The answer is multifaceted.
- The Colts Offense saw a decrease in light boxes (6 defenders or less), and an increase in Neutral Boxes (7 defenders).
- They faced some tough Run Defenses in Houston, Jacksonville, Kansas City and Seattle, all of whom rank top 11 Rushing Yards per Carry Allowed.
- The QBs taking snaps had limited mobility outside of Riley Leonard in most of Week 14 (Daniel Jones fractured fibula and Phillip Rivers at age 44 returning to the NFL)
- And the Gap Blocking efficiency fell drastically in Week 12-15 compared to the first 10 games of the season.
- Bernhard Raimann: 64 —> 61.7 Gap Block Grade
- Quenton Nelson: 86.7 —> 46.7 Gap Block Grade
- Tanor Bortolini: 79.2 —> 58 Gap Block Grade
- Matt Goncalves: 53 —> 52.2 Gap Block Grade
- Braden Smith: 61.4 —> 39 Gap Block Grade
- Tyler Warren: 53.3 —>47.8 Gap Block Grade
- Mo Alie-Cox: 67.6 —> 61.1 Gap Block Grade
- Andrew Ogletree: 48 —> 56.2 Gap Block Grade
Throw in injuries to starting Tackles Braden Smith and Bernhard Raimann, and it is not a recipe for ground success.
However, the San Francisco 49ers could present an opportunity for Jonathan Taylor and the Colts run game to get back on track. The 49ers front 7 personnel has been depleted over the course of the season, and could have a lot of players out or playing through injury against the Colts.
This has caused their run defense in particular to regress, making them one of the matchups the Colts could look to exploit in Week 15.
Though the question is can the Colts backup Tackles step up? Rookie Jalen Travis has had a 69.8 Run Blocking Grade (79 on Zone Runs, 55.2 on Gap Runs) in his 72 snaps this season, including a 68.3 Grade in 31 Run Blocking snaps against the vicious Seahawks front last week. Backup Blindside blocker Luke Tenuta had a 42.2 Run Blocking grade in his first action of the season last week in 13 snaps, but an 80.5 Pass Blocking Grade in 13 snaps allowing just 1 pressure was encouraging otherwise.
If these inexperienced blockers can step up and Quenton Nelson and Tanor Bortolini on the inside can return to their previous dominance in gap blocks, Taylor will have much more room to run today.
Expect another heavy workload for Jonathan Taylor, as he has averaged 20.75 Carries and 2 Receptions in each of the last 4 games. Ameer Abdullah will rotate with him at times, and Rivers has shown an affinity for getting the ball to receiving backs throughout his career as a checkdown. Abdullah had a season high 9 Offensive Touches in Rivers’ first game of the season, including 5 Receptions.
But getting Taylor to break free in space will be crucial for the Colts Offense. Colts fans are quite familiar with what Taylor can do with some daylight. In the Colts 8-2 start in the first 10 games of the season, Taylor was putting up gaudy numbers:
- 189 Carries
- 1,139 Rushing Yards (1,936 Rushing Yard Full Season Pace)
- 6 Yards Per Carry
- 15 Rushing TDs (25-26 Rush TD Full Season Pace)
- 30 Receptions
- 260 Receiving Yards
- 2 Receiving TDs (29 Total TD Full Season Pace)
- 1 Fumble
Putting up 4 games with 3 or more Rush TDs and 5 games of 100-244 rushing yards in that span certainly was a spectacle of the dominance Taylor can provide. If the Colts can get him back to that level of production, they got a much better chance to win compared to the production they’ve gotten during their 4 game losing streak since then.
Every game now is a must-win game for the Colts to have a solid shot of making the playoffs. And getting a late season Jonathan Taylor resurgence will be the key to making their post-season dreams a reality.
