Domino effects are meant to start relatively small. The first two editions of the series, I feel like, encompassed that. We got really niche with the Mike Brown Kings saga and less niche with Julius Randle’s injury, but both of them required a lot of outside-the-box thinking to see directly what a reversal would’ve caused to the Knicks’ long-term hopes.
This one is anything but niche.
To wrap up this mini-series I’ve had fun with over the dog days of the summer, we’re going to look at possibly the biggest
domino effect of them all, one that was scarily realistic and only didn’t occur because of the hubris of a certain front office that later made one of the worst trades in NBA history.
You saw the title. This is a scenario that Jalen Brunson, the birthday boy and the man who has exceeded every expectation and has spearheaded a revival of Knicks basketball so grand that all of us have spent way too much money on championship merch, never puts on the orange and blue.
Following his third season in Dallas, Brunson and his agents at CAA wanted to negotiate a contract extension with the Mavericks’ brass. The number that they decided on was more than reasonable for a player of his current production: four years and $55 million. After all, he was coming off finishing fourth in Sixth Man of the Year voting with plausible upward mobility.
Dallas said no. Fast forward a few months: as Brunson began what turned out to be a breakout campaign, he and his agent approached the Mavs again about the same framework and were again told no.
Brunson kept working and gradually improving to the point where the Mavs themselves approached him about the $55 million deal after the trade deadline, but at that point, he had outgrown that offer as he was barreling towards free agency. Four months later, he landed in New York on a four-year, $104 million pact.
But what if Dallas realized what they had in Brunson at either one of those points, particularly the in-season extension? What if they took a guy that the Knicks had long been looking at off the market? Such a deal would’ve been more than reasonable for their current cap structure as a sixth man or starter next to Luka Doncic, even if the fit was potentially difficult due to both of their defensive shortcomings. Frankly, it was nonsensical for them to be that blind. This was a good player.
December 1, 2021. Jalen Brunson and the Dallas Mavericks announce a four-year, $55 million extension that will begin the following season. Let’s see where the dominoes fall.
Nothing changes from this point forward on any side for the rest of the 2021-22 season. Brunson still balls out and gets on the national radar with his incredible performance in the postseason; the Knicks still miss the playoffs, etc. Instead of the media clowning the Knicks for giving Brunson a nine-figure deal in June, the offseason is spent lauding Nico Harrison and company for their wherewithal to lock down this impact player for cheap.
Of course, this creates a gigantic path of divergence for the Knicks, who were always infatuated with Brunson because of his family connections. I still think Rick Brunson gets hired onto Tom Thibodeau’s staff to replace the outgoing Kenny Payne (who had a truly disastrous tenure at Louisville). The hiring was definitely motivated by his son’s free agency, but he had also served as an assistant under Thibs in Chicago and Minnesota, so it still happens.
The real question, though, is what happens in that offseason. Our first major question revolves around the strategy for the 2022 NBA Draft, particularly with the No. 11 overall pick.
2022 NBA Draft
For those who don’t remember, the Knicks selected Ousmane Dieng, traded him to the Thunder in exchange for three first-round picks, traded up to No. 13 in exchange for two picks, selected Jalen Duren, and shipped him to Detroit alongside Kemba Walker in an effective salary dump. The team came out with solid assets and cleared up some cash.
The motivation behind punting a lottery pick? Signing Jalen Brunson. A later trade with Detroit shipped Alec Burks and Nerlens Noel to the Motor City and cleared up just enough space for the Villanova alum and Isaiah Hartenstein in free agency. It’s why I never cared about people saying “the Knicks traded Jalen Duren for nothing” because it’s false. You don’t get Brunson (most likely) without trading Duren, his cap hit, and the salary attached.
But with Brunson off the table and no clear reason to use cap space, the Knicks are dead set on picking in the lottery. You might think it’s as simple as drafting Dieng or Duren, but the Knicks almost certainly made both selections on behalf of the teams they were actively negotiating with. After all, if they wanted them, they wouldn’t trade them.
There were a few plans for this draft leading up to it. After the Knicks were once again denied a chance at lottery luck, they constantly rang the phones to try to trade up for Jaden Ivey. They may get over the line for this. After all, with no Brunson on the way, there are no schematic issues.
It would still be a very difficult trade to make, so I lean toward it not happening. After Ivey, they seemed quite enamored with Wisconsin guard Johnny Davis, but the Wizards took him 10th overall. That’s two major bullets dodged, but who’s on the clock at No. 11?
The available players who had a pre-draft workout in New York were AJ Griffin, Tari Eason, MarJon Beauchamp, and Mark Williams. I would think it would be one of these guys, even if the extremely talented Jalen Williams and Duren were on the board. In typical Leon Rose fashion, he probably does the first two trades of the night, where he trades out and comes back in, ultimately scooping up two conditional firsts from Detroit and Washington while trading four seconds.
With the 13th pick, they select Duke wing AJ Griffin.
2022 Offseason
With no Brunson and an unsuccessful pursuit of both Davis and Ivey in the draft, the Knicks badly need a point guard. I’d assume they still look to offload salary, particularly with Kemba, to open cap space, but the extent of this is unclear due to the lack of a clear alternative in free agency. There’s restricted free agent Collin Sexton, of course, but the direction that needs to be taken appears to be in the trade market.
Fortunately, there are two lead guards available.
Dejounte Murray is on the block in San Antonio and could be had for a reasonable package. His defensive fortitude makes him a welcome fit for a team that has major defensive questions, and his offense has also proven capable of a leap forward. There’s also that New York native out in Utah who could be of use…
For Murray, the Knicks never seemed that motivated to make that move, even if he would’ve been a decent fit next to Brunson in real life. They were always more focused on adding Donovan Mitchell and figuring it out later. In this timeline, Murray still goes to Atlanta, but it’s a full-court press on bringing Spida home.
With no Brunson, there’s nothing holding them back from adding a small guard into the fray. The fit concerns aren’t there. When Danny Ainge and the Jazz ask for a ridiculous package, it’s eventually negotiated down into something the team can agree on.
In mid-August 2022, Mitchell comes home for a package centered around RJ Barrett and Quentin Grimes, depleting the team’s draft capital to keep further players out of the deal. As much as fans want to play the kids, the Knicks see an opportunity to compete and take it.
Thus, here’s the rotation we have heading into the 2022-23 season:
Donovan Mitchell – Derrick Rose
Evan Fournier – Immanuel Quickley
Alec Burks – Cam Reddish/AJ Griffin
Julius Randle – Obi Toppin
Mitchell Robinson – Isaiah Hartenstein
Yes, in this reality, we assume that the Knicks still find a way to get off Noel’s contract but keep Burks as wing depth after trading Barrett and Grimes. Hartenstein was always a target for the front office and still comes to New York.
The Future
This lineup, as you might imagine, would’ve been rather erratic. You have some brilliant shotmakers in there, but not enough defenders. Tom Thibodeau’s seat gets hot again; he’s forced to bench some players permanently, and the mini-revival still happens… to an extent.
Quickley gets a chance to start with Spida, Deuce McBride’s emergence happens a year sooner, Randle enjoys his bounce-back season. The foundation of the start of the Brunson era would’ve likely been similar, but the real repercussions come later.
At the deadline, the team needs wing depth, having iced Reddish out of the rotation. With Brunson no longer on the team, I can’t imagine the interest in Josh Hart is any more pronounced. It’s still possible that the trade happens. I’m instead going to involve the Knicks in the multi-team trade with the Warriors and Pistons that got Gary Payton II back to the Bay. The Knicks send a bucket of seconds and Cam Reddish to Detroit for Saddiq Bey.
With Mitchell, the Knicks win 48 games and slide into the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference, where they host a Cavs team that never got the New York native and instead had to continue building around Darius Garland, Sexton, and Evan Mobley. The Knicks still win in five.
In the second round, the Bucks still get slayed by the wrath of Jimmy Butler and the Heat, and although many fans are optimistic about the prospects of facing the No. 8 seed, Butler waxes the Knicks in a six-game defeat.
Heading into the following season, the Knicks are content with what they got, planning to use it as a building year. Burks never being traded means there’s not enough space to sign Donte DiVincenzo, who was also likely going to be someone Brunson pitched signing. There’s no big move to be made here, so we keep going into a shaky start to the 2023-24 season, which leaves them at an inflection point around the New Year.
As you might recall, OG Anunoby was acquired in real life on December 30, 2023, for RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and a second-round pick. In this reality, Barrett is already gone, but Quickley is becoming a foundational piece after being started out of necessity midway through the prior season. The financials still work if the Knicks add Burks to the trade, but with Barrett not included, the rest of the team’s excess draft capital goes with it.
The Big 3 of Spida-Anunoby-Randle destroy the competition in January 2024 until injuries take out both Randle and Anunoby. Mitchell does his best to imitate 2024 Brunson and gets First-Team All-NBA for his troubles, but it’s certainly an uphill climb. Without DiVincenzo to help with off-ball scoring, the Knicks only win 46 games, dropping them to the play-in tournament. Remember, the No. 2 and No. 7 seeds were just three games apart that year.
The Knicks get revenge on the Heat in the 7-8 game, but have to fare with a road series against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks in the first round, one that just doesn’t go well. With no Randle to physically match up, Toppin (who I believe doesn’t get traded with the team’s worst depth the prior season) and Precious Achiuwa are overwhelmed in a six-game defeat. The front office blames injuries and doesn’t make any drastic moves… yet.
The Mikal Bridges trade never happens. They had to use a boatload of draft assets to get Anunoby and Mitchell, so the Nets aren’t interested. Anunoby extends, Spida gets his three-year, $150 million extension, and the Knicks seem prepared to run it back in 2024-25.
Now, you might wonder: what about KAT?
The Knicks badly wanted him, but they lacked a guy who Minnesota really valued in DiVincenzo to get it done. Further, the fact that Mitchell took a max extension puts the team eerily close to the second apron, something they avoided with Brunson’s pay cut. There’s a very realistic world that this trade doesn’t happen, but Leon Rose always gets his guy, so they trade Mitchell Robinson and the last bits of draft capital to get it done.
All-in.
It’s not worth prognosticating who fills the Hart and Bridges gaps in the lineup, but the Knicks are built around Mitchell, Anunoby, and Towns. That Big 3 would get two seasons to work everything out, going into the second apron in 2025-26 before James Dolan would order a restructuring. They had to win. They had no choice.
In the first year, they get bounced in the second round by the Celtics after a 52-win season. The poise of the Brunson-led Knicks was a big part of why they came back from all those deficits, plus the team would be utterly devoid of defensive length without Robinson or Bridges. This also means that the Knicks and Pacers never rekindle their rivalry in either season, which is fun to think about.
In 2025-26, the year we all rejoiced in real life, they had a real chance. They fortified the depth; they hired Mike Brown to replace Thibs; they waltzed into an extremely weak East and grabbed the bull by the horns.
50 wins in the regular season, enough for the No. 3 seed. They survived a seven-game war with Atlanta, took out Philadelphia in six games, and went face-to-face with the Pistons in the ECF. Remember, no Mitchell likely dooms the Cavs to mediocrity and no ECF berth.
It’s hard to say for sure if the Pistons give the Knicks the same fits they did in real life, but let’s look at the facts. The Knicks were still a major question mark defensively and had no answer for Cade Cunningham. Additionally, they lacked the presence of Robinson (even in a backup role) to fluster Duren. In a tense, seven-game series, the Pistons prevailed. It’s over.
Mitchell would not be extended again by the Knicks, as his playoff shortcomings would not be worth the $270 million extension he got in real life. I’d think the front office would side with the Big Bodega in this, and the team would be built around the fleeting prime of Towns from here.
Safe to say, no banners. Sad stuff. But how’s Jalen doing in Dallas?
Brunson’s New Life In Dallas
Dallas did basically nothing that offseason to replace Brunson, leaving them inherently weaker entering the 2022-23 season. They still acquire Christian Wood after retaining Brunson, but they feel pretty stagnant.
The big change in the 2022-23 season is that the Mavericks never traded for Kyrie Irving, as the fit with him, Brunson, and Luka would’ve been quite bizarre. They also wouldn’t feel the need to, as when Doncic goes down with injury right before the deadline, we see glimpses of Knicks Brunson in the emerging Villanova alum.
Dallas was quite bad this season, flaming out in the play-in tournament, but an interesting trickle-down effect from this is that they wouldn’t be able to properly tank to keep their draft pick, so a parting gift from Brunson would give the Knicks a lottery pick in 2023, which they’d use on a guy like Jordan Hawkins. Not a needle mover, so I didn’t feel the need to mention until now.
The reverb would be no Dereck Lively II in Dallas, but the supporting cast from guys like PJ Washington and eventually Daniel Gafford would provide enough for the Mavericks to still go deep in the postseason in 2024, maybe making the NBA Finals but still not coming that close to a title.
At the same time that all appears to be well in Dallas, Nico Harrison is stirring. He doesn’t like the frequent unavailability of Doncic, who still suffers a major hamstring injury on Christmas 2024. In his absence, unlike in real life where Kyrie suffered a multi-week injury as well, the Mavericks experience the joy of 2024 Jalen Brunson, who carries Dallas through January to the point where Harrison has an epiphany.
“What if I fortify my defense and Jalen can give me Luka-esque production?”
Brunson’s explosion dooms Doncic’s tenure, as the controversial trade with the Lakers still occurs. Anthony Davis would now be paired with a head of the snake in Brunson, a match seemingly made in heaven.
Except Davis is still injury-prone. Dallas never has the death spiral they had with Davis and Irving’s season-ending injuries because Brunson would be there trying to play hero ball. He does just enough to win them 45 games to take the No. 9 seed. After defeating Sacramento in the 9-10 game, a heroic 40-ball sees them stun the Grizzlies to steal a playoff spot, only to get eviscerated by the powerhouse Thunder.
This turns out to be an utter disaster, as Cooper Flagg will no longer become a Maverick. It was possible to have a core of Brunson, Davis, and Flagg, but now? Brunson hits his 30th birthday with Davis shipped to Washington and a band of merrymen around him.
That’s right. The real twist of all of this? Nobody wins.
The Knicks lose because they don’t have Brunson. They never sniff the NBA Finals.
The Mavericks lose because the domino effect takes two lottery picks away, and JB’s hyper-competitiveness doesn’t allow them to get younger.
Jalen Brunson loses. Instead of being the King of New York, he’s got a microscope on him in lowly Dallas as the guy Nico traded Luka to feature.
It’s a lose-lose situation. What a nightmare. I need my nightlight; someone turn on some highlights.
That’s better. Happy Birthday, Cap. We’re so glad this never happened.
