After a dominant win for the Michigan Wolverines over Saint Louis to reach the Sweet Sixteen, a matchup with the No. 4-seed Alabama Crimson Tide now awaits for a shot at the Elite Eight.
Alabama looked ridiculously strong in their win over Texas Tech in the Round of 32, hitting 19 threes en route to a 90-65 win on Sunday night.
The Tide might be the most dangerous 4-seed in the bracket because of the way they play. It’s all gas, no breaks for them, as they have the No. 1 scoring offense in the country
(91.7 points per game). But it’s not just putting up points — they take efficient shots, scoring 1.188 points per possession, which is top-10 in the country.
Where things get even more dangerous is how they attack the glass on the offensive end too. They’re Top-25 in the country in offensive rebounds per game because of their size and length. Michigan has to win on the boards to ensure a great team doesn’t get even more chances on the offensive end.
They do all this while generally taking good care of the ball. At No. 33 in turnovers and a top-25 assist-to-turnover ratio, the Crimson Tide have very few flaws on the offensive end and dare teams to turn games from a marathon to a race. They scored 90 or more in 22 of their 25 wins this season.
The problems come against strong defenses that can force bad shots and elongate games. In eight of their nine losses, the Tide have failed to score 90 points, and all but one of the games they dropped came against a team in the NCAA Tournament.
Playing fast has its advantages, like putting up a ton of points. But Michigan might be the first team Alabama plays this season that can actually keep pace, and those with stronger offenses are typically the ones that do. That critical flaw is what the Wolverines will attempt to expose — Alabama gives up 83.1 points per game (346th out of 365 in the country) and 39.8 rebounds per game (356th).
Anchoring on their offense are three guards. Labaron Philon Jr. has been magnificent so far in this tournament and all season. He’s 12th in the country by scoring 22 points per game, and he hits 40 percent from deep. Sixth-year senior Latrell Wrightsell is also a threat and scores more than 12.5 per game.
And then there’s Aden Holloway. The star junior averaging more than 16 points per game was arrested just before the NCAA Tournament after finding “drug transactions” on his phone and 2.1 pounds of marijuana in his apartment. The university removed him from campus and suspended him from the team as the investigation continues. Making it to the second weekend at minimum has bought the Tide some time to potentially get one of their best players back.
But Alabama has a deep roster that has helped in Holloway’s absence. What stands out the most is their size. Latvian 7-footer Noah Williamson will surely see extended run with Aday Mara on the court. But Detroit native Aiden Sherrell (6-foot-10, 255 pounds) sees the majority of the minutes. Then there is freshman Amari Allen, who averages 11 points per game and is 6-foot-8, 205. Add in 6-foot-10 Taylor Bol Bowen — who scored 15 in the first round against Hofstra — and 6-foot-8 freshman London Jemison, and suddenly you’re talking about a team that might actually be able to match the Wolverines’ size.
Pace is obviously a factor, but I think the team that wins this game is the one that rebounds the most, specifically on the offensive end. Neither program can allow the other to have extra possessions or this game could get ugly in a hurry.
That’s how Purdue completely overwhelmed the Tide, out-rebounding them 52-to-28 in a 87-80 win this year. Gonzaga also had a double-digit lead on the boards in a 95-85 early-season win, too. In fact, the Crimson Tide lost the rebounds battle in all but one of their losses this season, most by a double-digit margin. In total, in games Alabama lost this season, they were out-rebounded 406-315. If the Wolverines can have that kind of performance on the boards, they’re going to be in really good shape, even if Alabama has a strong night shooting the ball.
This should be an awesome game, with of the top offenses in the country facing off in the Sweet 16. An extra day of rest for Michigan helps, but it will be fascinating to see how these two teams perform after a week off following two really strong showings for each in the tournament’s first weekend.
