Everyone loves a best-case scenario.
Well, folks, Houston Rockets fans (finally) have one. Why finally?
It’s been a challenging 2025-26 season.
Fred VanVleet was down from the onset. Steven Adams didn’t take too long to follow. Without a pair of players whom the Rockets saw as integral to their game plan, there were times when it didn’t seem like they’d be happy with their final record.
Somehow, they won two more games than they did last year, anyway.
Enough digressing. The best-case scenario is their
playoff matchup. The Rockets are facing the Los Angeles Lakers:
One of the few teams that’ve had worse luck than them this year.
Rockets’ first-round matchup suffers major losses
Luka Doncic is out. He’s not expected back for the first round. Neither is Austin Reaves. The timeline isn’t clear for either, but the safest money says that neither will see the Rockets in this year’s playoffs.
That leaves the Lakers armed with LeBron James and a platoon of role players. James is – somehow – still an All-Star caliber player at 41, but it would take a Herculean effort for him to drag this group past the Rockets.
For what it’s worth, Houston has been the better team all year. The Lakers will have homecourt advantage, having won an extra game, but those wins and losses can be deceiving. Houston’s 5.4 Net Rating finished sixth in the regular season, while the Lakers’ 1.5 mark finished 14th.
Do the Lakers have any chance?
Rockets cannot take the Lakers lightly
Sure.
Any team can beat any team in the National Basketball Association. When the team in question rosters LeBron James, it’s never entirely safe to bet against them.
That said, the Rockets are heavily favored heading into this matchup. Kevin Durant has been more productive than James all year. For that matter, Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun both arguably had better seasons. Outside of James, the Lakers’ rotation without Doncic and Reaves largely consists of role players.
If the Lakers win, the Rockets will have difficult existential questions to answer. Major changes could be on the horizon. This is Houston’s series to lose:
In other words, it’s a best-case scenario.
Got a sneaky feeling about the Lakers? Feel like making a smart wager on the Rockets? In either case, head over to Fanduel, the official sportsbook partner of SB Nation. As it stands, the Rockets are +5500 to go all the way and win the NBA championship
