To the say the beginning of the season has brought about undesirable luck and loathable losses for the Northwestern Wildcats would be an understatement, to say the least.
A schedule that ranked as the seventh
toughest in the nation on the PFF leaderboards gave Northwestern no “ease in” period. Out of the gate, the ‘Cats were drowned in Green Waves by the strongest Group of Five team in college football, then found some breathing room in a convincing win over FCS Western Illinois before No. 6 Oregon came out and Duck-walked all over Northwestern Medicine Field.
Now heading into Week Five, NU sits at 1-2 — a record that many thought would be reasonable to ask of the Wildcats. However, below the surface lies a lineage of injuries, a discombobulated defensive unit and a quarterback that seems to be crumbling under the pressure of facing the most difficult schedule of his career.
‘Cats faithful are in panic mode, and when tracing back to the roots of what this squad was supposed to be back in the spring, they have good reason to feel bowl eligibility moving towards the horizon and fading out of sight.
The good news is that there are many games that are still “winnable” for Northwestern. Some more so than others, some may be far reaches, some may be in the middle ground: potential “maybes,” depending on what happens in the upcoming weeks of FBS play.
So, to cool the nerves of many who are worried about a shortage of purple during bowl season, here are five games that could secure the ‘Cats postseason play two months from now.
Sept. 27 vs. UCLA
This is a must-win for Northwestern. Simply put, a loss puts a wrap on 2025 for the ‘Cats.
UCLA’s struggles have been well documented from the start. Week One was a Devon Dampier masterclass, but the weeks to follow have been pure pandemonium in Los Angeles.
Nico Iamaleava has been far from the transfer that the college football world expected him to be, ranking 2nd to last in the Big Ten in both QBR (120.6) and average yards per attempt (6.3).
Iamaleava’s fall from playing in the College Football Playoff to moving the needle backwards for a program that’s been “in the dumps” for years is a juxtaposition that shows how unpredictable the world of collegiate athletics could be. He’s thrown three interceptions already this young season after throwing just five all year in 2024 with Tennessee, and looks more anxious than ever in the pocket.
Then, of course, the Bruins started to make every undesirable headline imaginable.
Between head coach DeShaun Foster getting the boot and a defensive unit that gave up nearly 300 yards of rushing to New Mexico last Friday, it almost seems like a conference win is off the board for the blue and gold.
NU must take the layup tomorrow and secure its first conference win. If not, it’s a telltale sign of another drag-along season for the ‘Cats.
The defensive unit must take advantage of Iamaleava’s bad decision-making, applying the pressure to force him to rush his throws, making the lives of the young and inexperienced secondary easier. On the offensive side, Caleb Komolafe and Joe Himon II should have their way in gaining chunk yardage against a front seven that seems to bend like dental floss at times, opening up opportunities for Stone to get quality reps in the passing game.
Long story short, if Northwestern does what it needs to do, this game should be a W. No questions asked.
Oct. 18 vs. Purdue
The Boilermakers were a Big Ten bottomfeeder a season ago with a winless record in conference play, and 2025 is shaping up to bring about an encore.
Purdue will most likely be on a four game losing streak heading into its matchup with Northwestern, as it faces No. 23 Illinois next week with Minnesota to follow. Ryan Browne hasn’t regained his footing since Week One against Ball State, posting his lowest completion rate of his career against Southern Illinois in Week Two, then throwing three picks against USC in Week Three before adding another to his season total against No. 24 Notre Dame, taking three sacks to go along with the interception.
The way that the Fighting Irish bested the Boilermakers a week ago was through a balanced attack — a gameplan that allowed NU to move the ball well at times throughout the Oregon game. NU could grind out a win employing the same philosophy.
Now, asking for a combined 260 rushing yards from two backs is a bit much to ask of Komolafe and Himon, but asking them to beat Purdue in the run game isn’t an extraordinary request. They did so against Oregon — with the help of Dashun Reeder, of course — and can easily do it again against a downward-trending Purdue squad that averages only three yards a carry.
The ‘Cats defense will once again be critical, but unlike its UCLA assignment, this test against Purdue will be more about clogging the run to ultimately force Browne to throw in long yardage situations.
Why is that so important for them to do? Because Browne will most likely find more hardship in his next two games, skewing his confidence, and a team forced to rely on a struggling QB for their positive yardage is a losing position to be in.
Nov. 15 vs. No. 19 Michigan
This game falls under the “reach” category mentioned beforehand. Bryce Underwood is going to be tough to figure out, the Wolverine offensive line rarely falters and the UM run game is always a problem. Add the momentum factor of three probable wins over Washington, Michigan State, and Purdue into the mix, and the idea of this game being close to competitive seems gone by the wayside.
There’s one question mark about this squad that gives Northwestern the smallest of fighting chances, but a fighting chance regardless: fourth quarter fatigue.
Nebraska took Michigan into deep waters in Week Four because of an offensive collapse at the start of the fourth. The Wolverines’ first drive of the third — one that eventually led to a Cornhusker field goal to cut the Michigan lead to one score — was a 51-second three-and-out. In other words, a “flatline” possession without a sign of offensive life.
Of course, UM would shave eight minutes of game clock the next possession to kick a field goal that would seal the contest, but they weren’t as lucky against No. 18 Oklahoma. Two of their three of their fourth quarter drives were complete duds: six and seven yards of offensive gain, respectively, leaving the outcome to be decided by the Heisman frontrunner John Mateer and the Sooners’ offense, who didn’t disappoint.
Oklahoma and Northwestern are clearly in two different offensive tiers, but the Michigan flaws remain: the ability to finish games or compete in the fourth quarter is a major question mark. If the game goes as planned through three — that is, to move the ball downfield, and slowly — Northwestern may be able to hang around long enough to strike in the fourth.
Nov. 22 vs. Minnesota
The second Wrigley Field contest falls right into Northwestern’s ballpark: a feasible challenge against an middling opponent that poses as a threat, but not by much. Despite the 2-1 start, Minnesota did just suffer a two-touchdown loss to Cal, fluctuating between hot and cold. Just right, are the Golden Gophers, for Northwestern to get right before the Battle for the Hat against a strong Illinois team (more on that later).
Minnesota is still a sleeper team in the Big Ten this season, however, and its potential was on full display against Cal in Week Three. Despite the score, the Gophers handily won the rushing battle, yardage battle, possession time battle, and were just as efficient as the Bears on third down, begging the question: why is the score in Cal’s favor?
One word: penalties. 85 yards worth of penalties to be exact.
Minnesota’s 140 total penalty yardage ranks third amongst Big Ten teams with three games played thus far (UCLA and Washington), and that number could take some major jumps on the statsheet when it takes on No. 1 Ohio State and No. 6 Oregon on the road.
Right after that Oregon game, the Gophers travel to the Friendly Confines — a FBS venue just as unique as the lakefront, in more ways than one. The grass isn’t ideal for route runners, the wind can cause the game script to flip on a dime, and the mere fact that the away team’s locker room is a dugout is odd and disorienting in and of itself.
Northwestern has a history of using these unique and unorthodox advantages to win, and it’ll have to do so against Minnesota. Both offenses are on par with one another and both defenses will come up huge in certain moments. The miscellaneous advantages that side with the Wildcats will weigh more heavily on this matchup than most expect.
Nov. 29 @ No. 23 Illinois
Two weeks ago, this game felt on par with NU’s matchups against No. 6 Oregon and No. 3 Penn State: a game in which no college football fan would give a ‘Cats win a passing thought. That was until Fernando Mendoza and company entered the Illini picture, and everything was flipped on its head.
There’s a phrase that many defensive coordinators like to use when defending the pass game: “bend, don’t break”. In a passing down situation, a team would rather let up a 3 yard drag over the middle than the 10 yard hitch sitting above the flat. Illinois bent and broke all game: all seven of Indiana’s touchdowns took at least seven plays to get done, but three of the nine IU scores were 30+ yard strikes.
Suddenly, Bret Bilema’s squad looks more beatable than initially perceived. Northwestern still seems like an extreme underdog heading into Rivalry Week, and being in Champaign makes this win all the more unlikely, but the magnitude of this matchup still remains.
There will never be a Northwestern-Illinois game that doesn’t invoke emotion and investment from both squads. These games never fail to bring intensity and always cause chaos. That chaos could play into the hand of Northwestern at any moment, and from there, anything can happen.
