Well, well, well.
We meet again.
Two years after one of the most soul-crushing losses in recent Illini memory — and just four months after a Black Friday crumbling at Madison Square Garden — Illinois will get another shot at Dan Hurley’s UCONN Huskies.
And, if the third time’s the charm, Illinois will advance to the title game and be just 40 minutes away from the first national championship in program history.
The folks at FanDuel Sportsbook think Illinois can pull it off, listing the Illini as a 2.5-point
favorite when the odds opened Sunday night.
So, what needs to happen to get there?
Win the boards
We’ve seen it all season long — and we’ve heard it nonstop in the NCAA Tournament. Illinois is the nation’s tallest team, and one of the best on the glass.
Not just the best. Elite.
Illinois grabbed the 10th-most rebounds in the country this season at 41 per game, while UCONN is 111th at 36.8 per game. If David “Call Me David” Mirkovic is able to get a double-double and be a monster on the offensive boards once again, I like the Illini’s chances with second-chance points.
But it needs to be a team effort to keep Tarris Reed (8.8 rebounds per game) away from the paint and keep Illinois with the ball. For what it’s worth, Reed was dominant all around on Sunday against Duke, going for 26 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists. Dominant.
Make your shots
Much easier said than done, but in November’s 74-61 loss to the Huskies, Illinois started 4-of-7 from deep and then went ice cold, missing its next 13 three-point attempts. Oof.
The box score was ugly.
Granted, the rotations have changed and it’s a very different Illini team that will be in Indy on Saturday. Jake Davis starts. Andrej Stojakovic finishes. Mihailo Petrovic stays on the bench. Brandon Lee stays on the bench. Keaton Wagler plays more than 14 minutes.
Again, very different team now. We’ll dive more into that this week.
But for Illinois to top the Huskies, it’s going to need shots from everyone. Give me a Jake & Ben day with 4-5 threes combined, and another stepback from Keaton.
Get lucky
It’s taken a bit of bracket luck to get to this point. But UCONN has been kryptonite for Brad Underwood since March 2024.
30-0 sticks in my head all the time.
Black Friday at MSG was the worst game Illinois played this year.
And KenPom has UCONN as the only top-10 team in the country inside the top EIGHTY in “Luck.” (Illinois is No. 297, UCONN is No. 34.)
Underwood can gameplan all he wants, but once Hurley shows up on the sidelines, all bets are off. And, hell, you saw what happened against the Blue Devils on Sunday night.
Illinois is going to need a little luck on its side to pull off a win. This one won’t be easy.
