Note 1: I apologize for how late this is releasing, with the holiday and losing about 2 days of the week to travel I have not had much free time during the week to do this, we will be back to a regular
schedule next week!
Note 2: Much like week 12, Play reviews for this week will not be done, due to the aforementioned traveling for the holidays, I don’t have access to the tools I need to record and overlay information on those recordings. So this weeks recap will be abridged. Play review will be back next week!
That game had “the same ole Bears” written all over it…
Until it didn’t.
In a very un-Bears like manner, the Chicago Bears stunned the rival Green Bay Packers with 10 points in the final 2 minutes of the game to force overtime, then in the swirling crosswinds of Solider Field, the Iceman, Caleb Williams, sent the Chicago Bears faithful into a frenzy hitting DJ Moore for a walk off 46-yard touchdown throw that traveled nearly 60 air yards, hitting Moore perfectly in stride on the deep post to give the Bears another improbable comeback victory, and a 1.5 game lead in the NFC North with 2 games to play.
It was seemingly another slow start for the Bears offense. It all started with a drive that saw them drive 70-yards in 10 plays after turning the Packers away on a 4th and goal, a failed trick play that saw Cole Kmet line up under center to fake a quick plunge, only for the ball to be directly snapped between his legs to the upback, Kyle Monangai, behind him, only for the ball to sail over his head and result in a turnover on downs.
The Bears would get just 2 more drives in the 1st half, as the Packers game plan was simple: limiting the Bears time with the ball by hitting short completions and running the ball, and it worked nearly flawlessly for 55 odd minutes of game time.
It was also a game were an old familiar foe reared it’s ugly head once more, as Olamide Zaccheaus dropped a pretty wide open throw that had a chance to go the distance. Caleb Williams leads the league in yardage lost due to drops, and that yardage doesn’t even include YAC! Without those drops he would be sitting at 3,752 total passing yards, and very easily knocking on that 4,000 yard plateau.
But I digress, with the game on the line we, once again, could count on our quarterback when we needed to most as he would deliver 3 scoring drives in the games final 3 possessions to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, something he has done now a leagues leading 6 times.
The win put the Bears firmly in the driver seat of their own destiny to wrap up the NFC North division. Going from and O/U 8.5 wins and a sub 5% chance to win the NFC North, to where they stand now is incredible.
It feels good to be a Bears fan right now.
Benchmarks
(Totals and averages are all before week 16: Season totals are underlined, Season averages in Italics)
C/A: 266/459 (58.0%) | 19/32.8 (58.0%) | 19/34 (55.9)
Yards: 3150 | 225 | 250
Touchdowns: 25 | 1.8 | 2
Turnovers: 7 | 0.5 | 0
QB at Fault Sacks: 13 | 0.9 | 0
aDOT: 9.1 | 10.2
Passer Rating: 87.2 | 112.5
True Passer Rating: 124.7 | 144.3
Time to Throw: 3.03s | 3.04s
Time to Pressure: 2.64s | 3.08s
Pressure Rate: 31.96% | 35.15%
On-Target Rate: 65.9% | 70.4%
Poor Play Rate / Big Play Rate: 9.93% PPR / 7.7% BPR | 4.9% PPR / 7.3% BRP
Game Scorecard
The full grading sheet for each play can be found here.
Game Notes
- NFL Passer Rating / True Passer Rating / PFF Grade: 98.9 / 144.3 / 74.0
- The average passer rating in the 2025 season sits at 91.8 through week 16. His 98.9 NFL Passer Rating would be considered a good game.
- A 144.3 TPR is solidly in the Great range, with 100 serving as the baseline for Average.
- On the PFF scale, a score of 70 or higher is Above Average. With a 74.0, Caleb Williams’ performance was a solid above average performance per PFF.
- On-Target Throws: Season Average: 65.9% | Week 16 vs. Packers: 70.4%
- Reminder: Completion % ≠ On-Target %. On-target throws are only counted on aimed passes, so throw aways, spikes, and deflections at the line aren’t counted. And drops are counted as on-target.
- This is now nine consecutive weeks where his On Target % is higher than his season average as Caleb’s overlying accuracy continues a steady improvement on the year.
- Short-Level Passing (Behind LOS – 9 yards): 13/16 | 81.3% On-Target
- Deep-Level Passing (10–20+ yards): 6/11 | 54.5% On-Target
- Reminder: Completion % ≠ On-Target %. On-target throws are only counted on aimed passes, so throw aways, spikes, and deflections at the line aren’t counted. And drops are counted as on-target.
- 4.9% Poor Play Rate (turnover-worthy + poorly graded plays) against a 7.3% Big Play Rate (great + elite graded plays)
- More metrics for Caleb that just continue to trend in the right direction.
- Part of those big plays included the highest graded throw by PFF, the only score thus far in the 2025 season to receive a perfect +2.0 grade.
- And it’s hard to disagree with it, I touched on it a little earlier, but given the circumstances and add in the fact that he pulled this off against our biggest rival (a rival who many a times broke our hearts in this exact manner), in overtime, while essentially locking up the division cannot be overstated. I truly believe this throw to be one of the best I’ve ever seen a Bears quarterback make in my 35+ years as a Bears fan.
- Part of those big plays included the highest graded throw by PFF, the only score thus far in the 2025 season to receive a perfect +2.0 grade.
- More metrics for Caleb that just continue to trend in the right direction.
- Time to Throw: His time to throw of 3.04s seconds this week is nearly on the nose of his season average of 3.03s as Caleb worked will in just about every scenario this week, extending plays (he made a nice completion to Olamide Zaccheaus for 27-yards on the first drive, rolling to his left and throwing accurately to lead Zaccheaus up-field for easy YAC.) Playing inside of structure (His 47-yards game winner, for example.) and against the blitz (His 4th down touchdown to Jahdae Walker was a thing of beauty with an free rusher barring down on him.)
- Now Dasher: It’s no secret by now Caleb’s scrambling ability is an elite trait of his, whether it’s beating unblocked rushers, extending plays that are normally dead in the water, or picking up a yardage after having to scramble, he is one of the games most elusive quarterbacks.
- But did you know only 5 players in the league have more carries above 20+ MPH then him? Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, and De’Von Achane, that’s it, that’s the end of the list.
- On Cupid: One thing (of many things) I’ve really grown to love with Caleb Williams is his penchant to not turn the ball over. We talked about this a few weeks ago when he became the quarter to throw the least amount of interceptions through 1000 attempts, but just to pile on a bit more, he is leading the league in turnover % (and the margin only grew with Goff’s 5 turnover performance on Thursday.)
- On Blitzen: Maybe trying to bring the blitz to beat Caleb isn’t such a smart idea?
- According to PFF, on downs when opposing defenses have brought an extra man (5+), Caleb Williams has thrown for 1,377 yards, 14 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions, 11 of his 23 total big time throws, and a 100.8 Passer Rating,
- He is also 5th overall in EPA per play when being blitzed, joining quarterbacks like Jared Goff, Jordan Love, and Matthew Stafford, not bad company.
Summary
His final scores of 1st Half (0.85) / 2nd Half (1.70) / Game 2.55 give him a “Above Average” game grade for week 16.
With the level of throws we saw him make at the end of the game and overtime, you almost want to give him bonus points for good some of them really were. I’ve actually dabbed with the thought of double grading truly special throws, like the one we saw to win the game, in the same vein that I double grade some turnovers. Perhaps something to look into adding as a wrinkle next season.
That said, this was Caleb’s 9th start of the last 10 to score at least an average grade or higher, as consistency is really becoming a reliable thing for our signal caller, something I’m not sure I’ve ever said about any Bears quarterback.
The Bears have a chance to clinch the NFC North with a win on the West Coast (or the Packers could do us a favor a lose later today) when we visit the San Francisco 49ers for Sunday Night Football. The 49ers lead the all time series 36-33-1, but the teams have alternated wins and losses since 2012, with the 49ers winning the last match up a year ago, 38-13.
Hopefully good news for the Bears.
As always, Bear Down, and we will see you back here next week!
Gary Baugher Jr. is a rookie contributor to WCG, bringing football insight backed by over 16 years of experience in organized football and more than 30 years as a passionate fan of the game. You can follow him on Twitter at @iamcogs.
