Virginia football is alone atop the ACC

SB Nation

Thanks to their 10-point victory over the California Golden Bears on Saturday, Tony Elliott’s Virginia Cavaliers now sit alone in first place atop the Atlantic Coast Conference. The Georgia Tech Yellow

Jackets (8-1) losing to the NC State Wolfpack on Saturday night helped the cause, bumping GT down to 5-1 in the conference and making UVA the lone squad undefeated in ACC play.

ACC Standings Post-Week 10

1. Virginia, 5-0

T-2. Georgia Tech, 5-1

T-2. Pittsburgh, 5-1

T-4. Louisville 4-1

T-4. SMU, 4-1

T-4. Duke, 4-1

7. Miami Hurricanes, 2-2

T-8. Virginia Tech, 2-3

T-8. NC State, 2-3

T-8. Wake Forest, 2-3

T-8. Cal, 2-3

T-12. Clemson, 2-4

T-12. Stanford, 2-4

14. North Carolina, 1-3

15. Florida State, 1-4

16. Syracuse, 1-5

17. Boston College, 0-5

Of course, the hilarious part of this most recent development is that both Virginia and Georgia Tech have only lost to NC State this season. But, because Virginia’s matchup with the Wolfpack was a non-conference affair, the Cavaliers control their own destiny in the conference.

Saturday’s developments improve UVA’s odds to make the ACC Championship to a league-high 75% according to Playoff Status. Only six squads have higher than a 1% chance: Georgia Tech (53%), Louisville (31%), Duke (16%), Pitt (12%), and SMU (12%).

Miami’s overtime defeat to SMU on Saturday plummeted their odds down to 1% with every other team either eliminated or holding a less than 1% shot to play in Charlotte on Dec. 6.

Virginia’s three remaining games (vs. Wake Forest, at Duke, vs. Virginia Tech) hold significant weight not only for their odds to play for an ACC title, but their chances to make the College Football Playoff as well.

Playoff Status gives the ‘Hoos a 57% chance to make the CFP right now. That’s the 10th best mark of any school. A loss in the ACC Championship could throw a wrench into Virginia’s resume, though. Before this week, ESPN’s probabilities suggested that the ‘Hoos would need to win the ACC Championship to make the CFP.

The simplest – and most rewarding – path to the CFP is still winning the ACC Championship and the autobid that comes with it. UVA controls its own destiny in that regard, and is the only team in that conference that does. Win out, and they’ll play a pseudo-playoff game. Losing one of the remaining three, especially if it is to Duke, would complicate matters with five one-loss teams sitting behind the Cavaliers in the ACC standings.

The good news on that front is that Georgia Tech and Pitt play one another. So do SMU and Louisville. Here are the full remaining schedules of the six teams still contending to play in the ACC Championship.

Virginia